BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 18z RGEM upticked from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 RGEM is an absolute ICE Storm taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z RGEM upticked from 12z Man I just dont know if this is believable. Especially that far east. Would be an epic failure of some global mods, as well as forecasting from the nws. Everyone is kind of expecting up our way an inch of snow and a light glaze. Gosh that would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Wrong! Disc was on here last night. He used to be one of us, as in weather enthusiast. He is now a met and said he was taking a blend of the 3k nam and euro. A 3k NAM/ euro blend, would probably = plain,cold ,rain! For MBY:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 HRRR has zero ice for areas outside of NW NC foothillls. This sim radar is the extent of where ice ever is on the HRRR. If correct nearly everyone on here will be just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z RGEM upticked from 12z oh boy! Anderson, SC to Lynchburg, VA absolutely hammered...nobody wants that IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Hrrr is likely too warm. It takes me from 33/20 with light precip falling to 33/31 with heavy precip falling 2 hours later. I'm not buying it. Inside of 24hrs RGEM will be most accurate on P-type boundaries 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, GunBlade said: HRRR has zero ice for areas outside of NW NC foothillls. This sim radar is the extent of where ice ever is on the HRRR. If correct nearly everyone on here will be just rain. Luckily, it's not! It's now casting time! Radar is very clear, outside of NW NC at this point, nothing really close, should allow for maximum cooling, with no surprise early precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Which one will be closest to right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 @BornAgain13 I posted your map over on Mid Atl forum and asked High Risk, who is an awesome met if he had any theories as to why the RGEM is so much colder and unfortunately he said he is not too familiar with the RGEM model itself, but said 2m is the reason why. When I looked the RGEM is ridiculously cold at 2m almost the entire duration of the event. Going to be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: @BornAgain13 I posted your map over on Mid Atl forum and asked High Risk, who is an awesome met if he had any theories as to why the RGEM is so much colder and unfortunately he said he is not too familiar with the RGEM model itself, but said 2m is the reason why. When I looked the RGEM is ridiculously cold at 2m almost the entire duration of the event. Going to be something. Correct. This isn’t a P-Type issue. It’s simply how cold the surface layer is. RGEM is much colder than the others and is surely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Which one will be closest to right? Great question...but in my experience any ZR event over 0.25 is bad...for what it's worth it's overcast here in Todd and creepy calm outside like God hit the pause button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 53 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: do youll think the highlands/cashiers area (3500 feet) will see some snow out of this? debating on driving up there for the night from atl....need to decide soon thanks Yes, probably will get a few hours of snow with 2-3 inches before it turns to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The top two ice maps have me in the bullseye, and would be warning criteria! So, just by past experience, the bottom 2 are reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 NAM 3k should nail this one. Which, aside from some slick roads in spots, should be a non event EDIT : speaking for MY area only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Rgem I say is off it’s rocker toss it!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Rgem I say is off it’s rocker toss it!! . HRRR got a little colder on the 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, WarmNose said: NAM 3k should nail this one. Which, aside from some slick roads in spots, should be a non event EDIT : speaking for MY area only! Ummmmm.... I highly recommend you upstate people go to FB and find the WYFF - Chris Justice update from about an hour ago!!! That future cast radar looks like it could get RGEM totals!! There is some mod/heavy rain falling and it's frozen according to radar!! I know, self limiting, latent heat release, blah blah, but moderate Precip, could aid in a lot better wet-bulbing conditions! You get that precip at 29/30 degrees, which is not at all impossible, and your gonna have big problems!! Ask Lookout about temps being forecasted about 3-5 degrees too high! And tree loss! ( yes that was a different set up) but just making a point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Rgem I say is off it’s rocker toss it!! . Text JB , get his thoughts, report back, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, WarmNose said: NAM 3k should nail this one. Which, aside from some slick roads in spots, should be a non event EDIT : speaking for MY area only! Wyff future radar says: get bread and milk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Wyff future radar says: get bread and milk! I thought they rigged it to show only rain outside the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, JoshM said: I thought they rigged it to show only rain outside the mountains I thought they did too! It's worlds different than what they showed last night! It's picking up on the colder trends!? He seemed a little concerned, not his normal, all rain mentality, will check him out at 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Text JB , get his thoughts, report back, Thanks I text him he said was going to get in touch with you and see what you thought first? So he wouldn’t give me any totals!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 For those of you tossing the RGEM, I would be careful. It is has been deadly in its range this winter. To see the latest HRRR trend somewhat toward it just lends credence it isn't completely off its rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 GFS iciest run yet! Gets some barely down to SC, but trending colder, like all models today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS iciest run yet! Gets some barely down to SC, but trending colder, like all models today! This is usually the point as well my friend where the cad keeps trending stronger and stronger. Someone is going to get whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 For those of you tossing the RGEM, I would be careful. It is has been deadly in its range this winter. To see the latest HRRR trend somewhat toward it just lends credence it isn't completely off its rocker.RNK says less than an inch of snow and only 0.02 of ice? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Newest run of the HRRR has 2m temps below 0 out to 18 all the way down to northwestern SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: This is usually the point as well my friend where the cad keeps trending stronger and stronger. Someone is going to get whacked. North and West of I-85 upstate SC to Forsyth and up into SW/Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 How can they be so wrong ? but then I remember the last storm they said less than an inch of snow and I got 8 inches. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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