WiseWeather Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Dear lord... i hope i didnt jinx anything except maybe bradys hopes at winning a 6th. anyway.. we have a good storm signal on the gfs and it looks to be cold enough... can we score?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GFS and Euro are still solidly in the no camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: GFS and Euro are still solidly in the no camp. Solidly yes for WNC mtns and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Solidly yes for WNC mtns and foothills. Maybe a bit of ice at the beginning but 95% of it is cold rain for anyone below 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Even Boone wouldnt be all snow on the Euro. The UKMET was even further away from anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The Canadian and German had the best looks for last night but its hard to beat the UK/Euro combination. Really hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The Canadian and German had the best looks for last night but its hard to beat the UK/Euro combination. Really hard. The Euro's 500mb prediction could be spot on, but it be 2 or 3 too warm at the surface and it's showing a significant ice-storm. Even verbatim, it's showing .1 to .2 falling by 10am Sunday morning with temps below freezing down in to the upstate. Unlike the last non-event we had a few weeks ago with a similar set-up. It appears likely this time we're going to get solid precip moving in quickly to take advantage of wet-bulbing. Temps on most of the modeling Sunday at 1am are around 32/10. WAA isn't super strong and mid-level temps aren't torching either. If a meso/insitu high can develop from the precip over-running the cold dry air, and thus keep southerly surface flow at bay then it could be a solid freezing rain/sleet event. Too early to determine how that will play out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 This morning's ICON is starting to get that double barrel look the GFS had yesterday. No Bueno. Need this thing south and consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Even Boone wouldnt be all snow on the Euro. The UKMET was even further away from anything significant. Yeah this may be an event that favors just east of the blue ridge. In situ CAD almost. May be best to be off the mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The Euro's 500mb prediction could be spot on, but it be 2 or 3 too warm at the surface and it's showing a significant ice-storm. Even verbatim, it's showing .1 to .2 falling by 10am Sunday morning with temps below freezing down in to the upstate. Unlike the last non-event we had a few weeks ago with a similar set-up. It appears likely this time we're going to get solid precip moving in quickly to take advantage of wet-bulbing. Temps on most of the modeling Sunday at 1am are around 32/10. WAA isn't super strong and mid-level temps aren't torching either. If a meso/insitu high can develop from the precip over-running the cold dry air, and thus keep southerly surface flow at bay then it could be a solid freezing rain/sleet event. Too early to determine how that will play out though. Agreed. It's not out of the realm of possibility, I just find it doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Agreed. It's not out of the realm of possibility, I just find it doubtful. Yea, at least something to track, the past 2 weeks were brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 32 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Even Boone wouldnt be all snow on the Euro. The UKMET was even further away from anything significant. My goodness, where is the cold air when you need it, and it doesn't have to be no where near as cold as a couple of weeks ago, just marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: This morning's ICON is starting to get that double barrel look the GFS had yesterday. No Bueno. Need this thing south and consolidated At that point, verbatim, it's snowing at my house, so we hug the icon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 NWS GSP discussion from early this morning: Quote .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM Wed: On Saturday, high pressure will once again drift off the East Coast, and a shortwave trough will begin to approach it from the west. However, this event looks to pan out a little differently for our area than the one in the middle of the week. The models have come into reasonably good agreement on its evolution. The shortwave will induce cyclogenesis along the warm front near the western Gulf Coast, and the developing system looks to pass across or south of our CWFA on Sunday. The high will be in position to support the possible development of an in-situ wedge as precip spreads in from the west Sunday morning. Accordingly model thermodynamic profiles and partial thickness trends suggest a full range of p-types are possible Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temps are still expected to warm enough for a change to all rain for the afternoon, though guidance may not yet be taking the full effect of the wedge into account. As the low begins to move up the East Coast Sunday night, the wraparound moisture and CAA could re-introduce snow over the mountains and NW NC Piedmont. Confidence is still low on any snow or ice accumulations, though we are getting into the part of the year in which freezing rain is climatologically unusual. Nonetheless a large portion of the area could be impacted Saturday night into Sunday with snow and sleet; current model QPF suggests appreciable travel issues if p-types pan out as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, calculus1 said: NWS GSP discussion from early this morning: Good discussion, At least we have a shot at a winter storm, and it's not 10 days out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Maybe a bit of ice at the beginning but 95% of it is cold rain for anyone below 3k. Thank god I'm at 3,300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 43 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Good discussion, At least we have a shot at a winter storm, and it's not 10 days out!! I think that's a bullish as I've ever seen them be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 44 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Good discussion, At least we have a shot at a winter storm, and it's not 10 days out!! Blacksburg disco was surprisingly informational as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 54 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Good discussion, At least we have a shot at a winter storm, and it's not 10 days out!! NOAA is showing a little something tomorrow night into Friday am too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Thank god I'm at 3,300 Gonna be warm at 5000ft. Mid levels warm quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 12z runs are amped and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GFS vs CMC with surface temperatures Sunday morning at 7AM. Plenty of precip on both, but temps are different. GFS farther north with storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The canadian continues to be rock steady and tracking the low through northern GOM and off the SE coast. GFS is locked in on a well inland track through the interior of the SE. Probably how both models are handling the pac ridge and its net effect on the energy as it comes down, hence Can and Icon take a deeper dive which equals better results. For now because the Can has been more consistent along with the ICON to a degree I would lean in its direction before Id put my trust in the GFS. Ukmet and Euro will be interesting the next few cycles and probably come in somewhre between theCAN/Icon v/s GFS solutions. The pattern is still gonna be northern stream driving/ almost independent through Feb. So gonna have to root for vorts to amp just right in this fast flow. Not gonna get alot of help from stj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 44 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS vs CMC with surface temperatures Sunday morning at 7AM. Plenty of precip on both, but temps are different. GFS farther north with storm track About 6 degrees different IMBY, could have bid ramifications, if CMC is right, and I think it's better with temps most of the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 @griteater Good to see world's difference imo regarding GFS vs CMC, as well all know GFS does not handle 2m and cold all too well. Looking forward to the NAM getting in its range. I do worry how amped the GEFS is as franklin had pointed out. Edit: Although it does buck the trend this year of more sheared out and squashed pieces of energy, so I am not sure I firmly believe the GEFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 CMC isnt really that good though for anyone in NC or even VA for that matter..... This looks good for NW NC and SW VA till you look at temps for the same frame This wont get it done.....too warm at the surface everywhere pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: CMC isnt really that good though for anyone in NC or even VA for that matter..... This looks good for NW NC and SW VA till you look at temps for the same frame This wont get it done.....too warm at the surface everywhere pretty much Seen some good wet snows at 34. Heck even 36. West of 77 and north of 40 looks good on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 @downeastnc @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment As always if rates can succeed in an atmospheric setup as this, then temps will be a few degrees cooler than what is progged now imo. Someone will get a surprise from this storm. Just a matter of who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, downeastnc said: CMC isnt really that good though for anyone in NC or even VA for that matter..... This looks good for NW NC and SW VA till you look at temps for the same frame This wont get it done.....too warm at the surface everywhere pretty much Keep in mind the wedge is underdone a lot of times. Probably why GSP is harping this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.