February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Morch 3rd storm is shunted way south. That's a Philly south storm. Maybe the one on the 7th gets us

is that your prediction or your interpretation of the models?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Morch 3rd storm is shunted way south. That's a Philly south storm. Maybe the one on the 7th gets us

That is also a premature thing.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

is that your prediction or your interpretation of the models?

Prediction. You don’t get a New England snowstorm with a record NAO block. Has to relax first 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Prediction. You don’t get a New England snowstorm with a record NAO block. Has to relax first 

But some of our great late season events have had that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But some of our great late season events have had that. 

I think we’ll see one massive storm before pattern flips warm mid month. Just not in the next 10 days. Mid Atlantic will have more overall events than us imo 

[mahk_webstah]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Prediction. You don’t get a New England snowstorm with a record NAO block. Has to relax first 

maybe, but given the lack of a west coast ridge, and energy that might want to cut west, it will be more about the position of the 50-50 low.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

is that your prediction or your interpretation of the models?

All about the ‘visions’ brah.

[jbenedet]

Sunday is at a minimum a NNE winter storm. All guidance ticking colder. Latest GEFS and EPS has all of NNE in the game ...

Euro/EPS finally has a -NAO look to it. GEFS still coming around to it...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Because the "50-50" low is sort of west near Newfoundland, it would not shock me if that event is squashed south. Could certainly happen. Our better shot is later on in the first week of March into second week as the main trough in the east shifts west a bit.

Yea, I see what you mean. We'll see what happens...one of them will get us imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we will get the larger event.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I see what you mean. We'll see what happens...one of them will get us imo.

And to clarify, I'm not saying no chance like Kevin is, just that at first...one of these lows could go south.  The good news is that the ensembles certainly say that your thinking is correct too.

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we will get the larger event.

 

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And to clarify, I'm not saying no chance like Kevin is, just that at first...one of these lows could go south.  The good news is that the ensembles certainly say that your thinking is correct too.

At long lead this is solid

[EastonSN+]

EPS and GEFS continue with the records NAO block. AO also steadily negative. Both models suites have the PNA around neutral (GEFS slightly positive and EPS slightly negative)

EPS now has the EPO turning sharply negative (- 3.5) around the 1st of the month. GEFS turns the EPO negative as well, however to a lesser extent (-1.5).

IF we do not score a snowstorm in the 1st half of March it will not be due to "lack of cold air" or obviously "lack of blocking", it will be due to too much blocking or purely bad luck. I can see a scenario where the MA scores big and we are north.

I am ready for summer.

[Ginx snewx]

Full Moon Goon and tides March 2nd, watch your backdoor

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

At long lead this is solid

The fact that it enters when the SE ridge is still prevalent certainly helps us.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Morch 3rd storm is shunted way south. That's a Philly south storm. Maybe the one on the 7th gets us

Eps disagrees

Further north than the op

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Because the "50-50" low is sort of west near Newfoundland, it would not shock me if that event is squashed south. Could certainly happen. Our better shot is later on in the first week of March into second week as the main trough in the east shifts west a bit.

Will come down to timing the s/w's moving across the country, I can see where we get one shunted south of us as the 50/50 retrogrades west.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

is that your prediction or your interpretation of the models?

A week and a half ago there was no more snow for Feb too.  And all of March was a complete torch lmao....it's laughable how it flips from one thing to another constantly.  Tomorrow it will be a different idea.  

[Typhoon Tip]

No one asked... but, I suspect we get one decent, singular probability for an impact event centered on Mar 2nd - 6th ... then, the NAO will decay as it retrogrades SW to merge it's vestigial heights into the SE ridge by March 10.  This NAO appears (so far) to not be the over-bearing suppression variety, which is what makes that possible. 

The AO is diving ... appearing to be rooted in the stratosphere-troposphere coupled stuff...  That's not a slam dunk for winter enthusiasts - tho ...you want that as a start, sure.  But, -AOs are not equal opportunity hosers ... sometimes they can dump cold over in Eurasia, then the wave numbers have to rotated around the hemisphere before a conveyor gets established over on our side... But it being/getting late-ish in the year, doing so in mid March may get modulated by seasonal wave shortening and that whole thing.  

Just can't get a better Pacific for any reason.  

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No one asked... but, I suspect we get one decent, singular probability for an impact event centered on Mar 2nd - 6th ... then, the NAO will decay as it retrogrades SW to merge it's vestigial heights into the SE ridge by March 10.  This NAO appears (so far) to not be the over-bearing suppression variety, which is what makes that possible. 

The AO is diving ... appearing to be rooted in the stratosphere-troposphere coupled stuff...  That's not a slam dunk for winter enthusiasts - tho ...you want that as a start, sure.  But, -AOs are not equal opportunity hosers ... sometimes they can dump cold over in Eurasia, then the wave numbers have to rotated around the hemisphere before a conveyor gets established over on our side... But it being/getting late-ish in the year, doing so in mid March may get modulated by seasonal wave shortening and that whole thing.  

Just can't get a better Pacific for any reason.  

Shh don’t tell some folks. They’re expecting a cold snowy month 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shh don’t tell some folks. They’re expecting a cold snowy month 

That could still still happen... I'm just warning that -AO is only tentatively good ... But as an afterthought, it would be better if the AO had a better Pacific working up underneath it... 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That could still still happen... I'm just warning that -AO is only tentatively good ... But as an afterthought, it would be better if the AO had a better Pacific working up underneath it... 

There’s a ton of signals it flips torch mid month. Block moves west. SE ridge blossoms like floppy bosoms

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a ton of signals it flips torch mid month. Block moves west. SE ridge blossoms like floppy bosoms

Where do you get this sh*t? I see no signs of that.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a ton of signals it flips torch mid month. Block moves west. SE ridge blossoms like floppy bosoms

I don't see thaaat... but perhaps you could cite a source there ?   

Like I said,... the NAO decays and merges with the SE ridge, but ... the ridge can be there, and if the AO breaks right (as in, favorable to our side of the hemisphere) ... I don't know if any of that "means" a balmy mid month - 

[MJO812]

Anthony Masiello‏

" Threat gradually increasing for a coastal storm during the first 4 days of March"

[MJO812]

Anthony Masiello‏

The front end time of blocks, esp after a very warm pattern, normally favor interior and New England. But this storm later next week comes at the peak of the block's retrograde, not necessarily its start. That's what 1962 did as well, as an extreme example.

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, dendrite said:

It was still only a little below normal up here. It just felt worse missing all of the biggies and then getting rained on while NYC was dumped on.

25" BN here, not what I'd label as "only a little".  Did not see a flake of real powder after the Jan 28 WINDEX.  That event was followed by 25 days w/o measurable precip, which overlapped with the 46-day run of AN temps. 
There's no way to minimize how disgusting that season was, except maybe by comparing it to CAR.  Their getting 7" less snowfall than BWI must be about a 500-year event.  They have almost 80 years of record and BWI 70, and CAR's 2nd least snowy winter had 6" more than BWI's 2nd highest.  The JFMA temps that year at CAR were 3.87° milder than the 2nd mildest.  The difference between #1 and #2 is greater than that between #2 and #27.  I've no idea what the statistical improbability is for that kind of 1-2 gap.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

25" BN here, not what I'd label as "only a little".  Did not see a flake of real powder after the Jan 28 WINDEX.  That event was followed by 25 days w/o measurable precip, which overlapped with the 46-day run of AN temps. 
There's no way to minimize how disgusting that season was, except maybe by comparing it to CAR.  Their getting 7" less snowfall than BWI must be about a 500-year event.  They have almost 80 years of record and BWI 70, and CAR's 2nd least snowy winter had 6" more than BWI's 2nd highest.  The JFMA temps that year at CAR were 3.87° milder than the 2nd mildest.  The difference between #1 and #2 is greater than that between #2 and #27.  I've no idea what the statistical improbability is for that kind of 1-2 gap.

It was 15" below normal here that year, Even if we would get blocked now, It wouldn't have the same affect as 2010 did, We're heading into March late in the season, Not just starting out the winter like that year.

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, dryslot said:

I believe trails all fared well even here in the Mtns and Northern Maine, They are going to be seeing snow in the mountains and Northern Maine over the next 5 days, A 1-2 hr drive gets me to the snow, Tops, I'll be heading up to those areas now the rest of the season.

Still 16" of multi-crusted snow at the stake at home, but I suspect the local club trails are messy in the low spots.  Some seasonably cold wx and 6" snow will fix that, as the lack of significant rise in the Sandy River suggests that nearly all of yesterday's melt (we had almost no RA) was absorbed by the pack.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Still 16" of multi-crusted snow at the stake at home, but I suspect the local club trails are messy in the low spots.  Some seasonably cold wx and 6" snow will fix that, as the lack of significant rise in the Sandy River suggests that nearly all of yesterday's melt (we had almost no RA) was absorbed by the pack.

Good to hear, I was up in your neck of the woods last weekend, The pack was good, Not as much as i thought it would be in the Stratton/Eustis area, Probably will head back up there next weekend.