February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To anyone that may want/need learning in larger scale synoptic mechanisms...  This 12z operational GFS is a wonder free introduction course work.  

Toggle through the charts for the time period of 90 hours through 120 ... take note of the Great Lakes cutter low's full evolution up and through the area...  

Next ... toggle through the charts from ~ 200 through 240 hours, and take note of the difference in total behavior, over the same region of the country.

The latter is the effects of the -NAO blocking ...  the former is the effects of limited/no -NAO 

Yea good juxtaposition there. 

That said, GFS is ticking colder run to run for this weekend; it was particularly noticeable on the 12z vs 6z run. Seeing a cold tuck like that on GFS at 84 hr is a red flag to me that there will be significant low level CAD, at least in the areas north of the pike.

NAO is modeled to be negative by the 25th, so I would expect that the operational guidance (particularly the GFS, which has a +NAO look) trends toward a more -NAO setup going forward.

[CoastalWx]

I would not be surprised if one of these goes under us at first and we enjoy cirrus. 

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would not be surprised if one of these goes under us at first and we enjoy cirrus. 

GFS shows just how that gets done. Congrats DC. 

[jbenedet]

Yea people are probably going to want to hit me for this, but I think Sunday may be our best and only shot at a significant winter event over the next 10 days...

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would not be surprised if one of these goes under us at first and we enjoy cirrus. 

Brick walls are no fun.

[Hazey]

This winter is finding new and creative ways to twist the knife.

[JC-CT]

I'd rather see a -NAO than a +NAO when the pacific is garbage. At least there is a chance with that.

[CoastalWx]

Why did this go off the deep end? 

[512high]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why did this go off the deep end? 

Scott, Please bring back positive thinking!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 512high said:

Scott, Please bring back positive thinking!

Sometimes no matter what you say, it just drives bridge jumping.

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sometimes no matter what you say, it just drives bridge jumping.

[Hazey]

Keep calm and weenie on?

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott, Please bring back positive thinking!

I'm positive for Sunday! But I'm basically alone on that, so take that fwiw. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm positive for Sunday! But I'm basically alone on that, so take that fwiw. 

You have company, 12z Euro looks colder for up here sunday, Borderline warning snow this run from Central NH into Maine

[SnowHole413]

The gfs looks like it would serve up a snowstorm March 2nd then it hits the massive block. Something to watch going forward

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sometimes no matter what you say, it just drives bridge jumping.

When you stomp on a baby wolf pup, daddy Wolf gets angry.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yea people are probably going to want to hit me for this, but I think Sunday may be our best and only shot at a significant winter event over the next 10 days...

 

And 12z GFS seems a couple degrees milder than the 06z, looks dodgey for frozen, AUG to RUM.  Latest run shows 16 consecutive daily minima at least 5° AN for everywhere in the south half of Maine.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

The gfs looks like it would serve up a snowstorm March 2nd then it hits the massive block. Something to watch going forward

Experts have said first week of March is our best chance for long precip events, stay tuned.

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

The gfs looks like it would serve up a snowstorm March 2nd then it hits the massive block. Something to watch going forward

With that block, you want a shortwave like the one we’re getting on Sunday. That would give us the bowling ball we all want.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

And 12z GFS seems a couple degrees milder than the 06z, looks dodgey for frozen, AUG to RUM.  Latest run shows 16 consecutive daily minima at least 5° AN for everywhere in the south half of Maine.

GL with GFS 2m temps. This isn’t the pattern where it’ll see the low level cold.

[dryslot]

GFS will cave.

[JC-CT]

Don't worry, the Euro is going to save winter.

[JC-CT]

Oh no, congrats DCA! Winter's over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll be stunned if we whiff on a biggie south. 

[weathafella]

KBOS 71 at 2pm.  This torch delivered!

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be stunned if we whiff on a biggie south. 

We retro

[Typhoon Tip]

I love that D10 Euro... Goes for a full subsume phased juggernaut while squatting the whole construct squarely on top of the SE ridge... 

Pacific vs the Atlantic in a battle of ages there...  

But, for entertainment sake only:  that depiction is probably a seasonal corrective snow event for the MA and NE regions ... and one of such duration that it probably ends as as a core wrapped wind swept light drizzle 72 hours later.... 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I love that D10 Euro... Goes for a full subsume phased juggernaut while squatting the whole construct squarely on top of the SE ridge... 

Pacific vs the Atlantic in a battle of ages there...  

But, for entertainment sake only:  that depiction is probably a seasonal corrective snow event for the MA and NE regions ... and one of such duration that it probably ends as as a core wrapped wind swept light drizzle 72 hours later.... 

Bring it on....we're due for a long duration beast anyway.  

[Dan76]

Yup...been mostly a damage free winter up till now.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be stunned if we whiff on a biggie south.  

Why

When i see all time strongest NAO , i wonder does That not make sense, or at least could be a pattern where that is not unheard of.