February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

How? December verified - colder/snowier than normal in the Eastern US. January finished near normal in the Mid-west and Northeast after a very cold first half, so this was slightly cooler than my forecast. My first window for a large storm in the Northeast verified (late Dec/beginning of Jan). The NAO has been positive this winter as I expected, with a near neutral/slightly negative AO. Unless, you've been reading different forecast ideas, I think things have gone fairly well to date. We'll see where we are 1.5 months from now. But your assertion is not correct.

The lack of objectivity that I've seen on various boards this winter has reached an all-time high.

I am still high on the 7 inches no one would get before Feb 10th my bad. IDK 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lets prey its quiet from 2/12-2/20

I forget he is in the MA. Look forward to storms and rumors of storms the best 15 days buckle up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am still high on the 7 inches no one would get before Feb 10th my bad. IDK 

Jesus, you always do that....steal one moderate event during a $hit pattern at the climo peak of winter, and its supposed to invalidate every assertion made about said pattern.

The pattern was supposed to stink in late Jan/early Feb, and it has stunk and stinks. It was also made clear that some spots could still scrore because its the dead of winter.

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, you always do that....steal one moderate event during a $hit pattern at the climo peak of winter, and its supposed to invalidate every assertion made about said pattern.

The pattern was supposed to stink in late Jan/early Feb, and it has stunk and stinks. It was also made clear that some spots could still scrore because its the dead of winter.

 

 he put out that statement I didn't and you didnt. You are so defensive about your seasonal call, lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 he put out that statement I didn't and you didnt. You are so defensive about your seasonal call, lol. 

No, I was talking about him...has nothing to do with me.

Maybe I missed something....which statement?

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Isotherm is having a very very rough year

Not really...he nailed the transition to warm following the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and 1/6-7 arctic outbreak. He had a colder than normal December and a slightly warmer than normal January, which was off by only a few days. We were -16 after the first week of January and finished the month within a degree of normal. We've seen only 1.5" of snow here since 1/4. His idea of a change to a pattern that was warmer than normal and unfavorable for snow on the coast was largely correct. The second half of January was a torch for sure. 

His ideas regarding February are likely to be largely correct as well. The -EPO will keep the cold air supply fresh, but the PNA is displaced westward and the Atlantic is awful. You can see on the GFS that the placement of the vortex is MUCH too far north for our area, over Baffin Island when we'd want it into Hudson Bay (and this has been the main adjustment in ensemble modeling the last 2 days, keeping the vortex farther north with high heights in the fast flow to the south)...that's a ++NAO:

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Not really...he nailed the transition to warm following the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and 1/6-7 arctic outbreak. He had a colder than normal December and a slightly warmer than normal January, which was off by only a few days. We were -16 after the first week of January and finished the month within a degree of normal. We've seen only 1.5" of snow here since 1/4. His idea of a change to a pattern that was warmer than normal and unfavorable for snow on the coast was largely correct. The second half of January was a torch for sure. 

His ideas regarding February are likely to be largely correct as well. The -EPO will keep the cold air supply fresh, but the PNA is displaced westward and the Atlantic is awful. You can see on the GFS that the placement of the vortex is MUCH too far north for our area, over Baffin Island when we'd want it into Hudson Bay (and this has been the main adjustment in ensemble modeling the last 2 days, keeping the vortex farther north with high heights in the fast flow to the south)...that's a ++NAO:

You guys have a different climo  good luck 

[snowgeek]

0Z GFS came in pretty far north for Sun/Mon storm. Wed storm looks more amped and juiced up on GOM juice. Highs slipping off the coast.

 

 

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[snowgeek]

Rut roh. Congrats Cleveland on the GOofus for Wed storm. Rains to Maine’s.


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[ice1972]

Good things happen in Feb....IIRC Feb 2006 and Feb 2013 were epic here in CT.....need that 

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, snowgeek said:

Rut roh. Congrats Cleveland on the GOofus for Wed storm. Rains to Maine’s.


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Wintry week coming up! 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wait till Ginx sees this with rains so far north into NNE . Still plenty of time to trend cold with EPO help, but we’ll need to start seeing changes 12z today . 

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wait till Ginx sees this with rains so far north into NNE . Still plenty of time to trend cold with EPO help, but we’ll need to start seeing changes 12z today . 

Break down.

[ORH_wxman]

Meh. Next week is a long ways out. Not worrying about it yet. Def could end up more cutterish...but that's a risk in this pattern. 

Sun/Mon is def not trending the right direction. But there is still even time on that on to end up a bit more CADish...esp for interior folks. The coast is probably skunked. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Meh. Next week is a long ways out. Not worrying about it yet. Def could end up more cutterish...but that's a risk in this pattern. 

Sun/Mon is def not trending the right direction. But there is still even time on that on to end up a bit more CADish...esp for interior folks. The coast is probably skunked. 

In looking at stuff..there are some models that develop a secondary off of NJ.. should that happen any mix flips back to snow. We'll see how it shakes out

[snowgeek]

Not loving the trends overnight. Hopefully the ski areas can avoid more rain next week.


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[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In looking at stuff..there are some models that develop a secondary off of NJ.. should that happen any mix flips back to snow. We'll see how it shakes out

I think the better hope for Sunday/Monday is that we just end up more CADish. That would help the interior more than the coast...but I'm not sure we get a full blown coastal secondary. It's kind of a diffuse system. But more CAD would turn it into mostly a WAA snow event. 

As for next week around Wednesday. That one trended ugly overnight but we all know the caveats on a 6 day forecast. It seems like cutterish systems around day 6 this year have generally been too amped on guidance. Hopefully that is the case this time. We have a good antecedent airmass for that one so there is good potential if we can avoid a track through BGM. 

[25thamendmentfan]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wait till Ginx sees this with rains so far north into NNE . Still plenty of time to trend cold with EPO help, but we’ll need to start seeing changes 12z today . 

He'll blame Ray.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Not loving the trends overnight. Hopefully the ski areas can avoid more rain next week.


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The EPS last night was awesome for the ski areas it seems.  Readers digest version of the 50 member mean snow map for the next 7 days.

[moneypitmike]

CMC or bust.

 

[powderfreak]

6z GFS looks real nice over the next 7 days too.  That's a 1-2 feet type deal over the 7 day period, especially throwing in the snow showers/squalls stuff.

Threaded the needle that run.

 

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks ugly in the 11-15 day. What a breakdown verbatim.

[Whineminster]

I thought winter was returning? 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Could be back to a more traditional N and NW gradient type deal here in this pattern with SNE.  More concerns south of the Pike and especially along the coast but still some important details TBD.  

[Damage In Tolland]

You guys should see this met I know meltdown in text this morning. Absolutely classic. 

[Lava Rock]

I thought winter was returning? 

Monday looks like snow to rain here. I don't see much to get excited over.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[moneypitmike]

I think the simple takeaway is NW is best.  Whether that's as nearby as the Pit or if you need to be from SYR to PF I'm not sure.  There's no high to keep the system from running that far west.  We watch and wait.

[CoastalWx]

We all hope the GEFS are right. 

[snowgeek]

6z GFS looks real nice over the next 7 days too.  That's a 1-2 feet type deal over the 7 day period, especially throwing in the snow showers/squalls stuff.
Threaded the needle that run.
 

Ski areas up north will definitely do better than areas to the south, but some of the model runs showing rain to Canada for the Wed event are disconcerting. Hopefully they trend colder today. Pump up that -EPO.


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[moneypitmike]

Just now, snowgeek said:

Ski areas up north will definitely do better than areas to the south, but some of the model runs showing rain to Canada for the Wed event are disconcerting. Hopefully they trend colder today. Pump up that -EPO.


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I may have picked a good time to be in MI.