February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[weathafella]

KBOS up to 65.  Feels nice!

[jbenedet]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the models that are warm and taking things unfavorable for snow definitely tapping into the right trend idea ... 

Specific context aside, it would be persistence for the GFS and especially Euro to have too much UL ridging over our heads when Canadain suface HP is in the mix, in the medium range guidance...

Not saying it can't happen for that reason alone obviously, but it's worth hedging with this in mind until proven otherwise imo...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Could also be days and days of drizzle and flurries with raw NE wind...  

I do worry about the cupply of cold being cutoff but Scooter said it will be cold enough to support  our emotional well-being.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Could also be days and days of drizzle and flurries with raw NE wind...  

 I'm sure the atmosphere will save that for April and May. 

[Typhoon Tip]

the euro has a wall of high pressure it's tryin' to ram a low through at 120 hours - interesting dilemma there

[jbenedet]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

the euro has a wall of high pressure it's tryin' to ram a low through - interesting dilemma there

C’mon tip we know how this story ends...

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

C’mon tip we know how this story ends...

it'd prolly be some frontside snow to ice... and may even try to stay that way ...then a post side t-spike. 

That D6 is really showing the betrayal by the faux NAO ... though.  

Not saying it's really going to go down that way and admittedly, I've been softheartedly trolling for fun over the last couple of hours but eesh... That's a different tenor for next week there.   We'll see where this goes, but it looks like the take away winter enthusiasts is: 

DON'T COUNT ON the polar indexes... Just hope they pan out. 

[Whineminster]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

There may be 0" at the torched parking lots, but there's a general 8-10" depth here.

 

This was from 93, and was before this last little event. Don't you worry though, you'll be down to 0 come Thursday. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

This was from 93, and was before this last little event. Don't you worry though, you'll be down to 0 come Thursday. 

Nope. Not here.

[Ginx snewx]

congrats Freak? I think he meant Berkshire Freak

[weathafella]

We bowl on the clown range euro.

[weatherwiz]

What a tough forecast for the weekend...I think anyways. The 0z euro looked like it never even warm sectors down this was as a low develops like right over SE CT. Really stuck on Saturday too...Euro 2M temps not very impressive. Thinking we could get stuck in the 40's unless we see some decent sun early afternoon which is possible. 

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

congrats Freak? I think he meant Berkshire Freak

What happened to SNE snow?

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What happened to SNE snow?

Is Mass no longer SNE?

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

i thought next week was pre negative NAO shenanigans and the NAO/AO  drop to negative was delayed into the first full week of March? 

I dunno ... I guess.    

Some of us were commenting in here that Sunday sort of acted like a pivot point in time, where from that point on ...systems were shunting S-E more than cutting toward the Lakes. That was in the tenor of the Euro and GFS previous appeals... (yesterday). 

That went away in the 00z run and delayed ...and this one is keeping up with that.

It's probable that the negative(s) are still on the table but it's also equally likely to be handled in a flaky manner in the runs, both for time and space.   

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is Mass no longer SNE?

He was saying snow for us Thursday and then Monday 

Shift north already started taking us out of any snow 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

He was saying snow for us Thursday and then Monday 

The 1st image is for Thursday.

[jbenedet]

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it'd prolly be some frontside snow to ice... and may even try to stay that way ...then a post side t-spike. 

That D6 is really showing the betrayal by the faux NAO ... though.  

Not saying it's really going to go down that way and admittedly, I've been softheartedly trolling for fun over the last couple of hours but eesh... That's a different tenor for next week there.   We'll see where this goes, but it looks like the take away winter enthusiasts is: 

DON'T COUNT ON the polar indexes... Just hope they pan out. 

Is it a betrayal or is it that the operational guidance hasn't picked up on what the ensemble guidance is pointing to for the teleconnections at Day 6? My experience is it tends to be the latter...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

The 1st image is for Thursday.

And thru Sunday.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And thru Sunday.

Right . The strong SE ridge is going to push this all way north. It’s been a congrats Freak look for a few days. Euro and NAM had snow into all of CT at one point . Now it’s already Pike north 

[kdxken]

69° here bring them up 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Is it a betrayal or is it that the operational guidance hasn't picked up on what the ensemble guidance is pointing to for the teleconnections at Day 6? My experience is it tends to be the latter...

well (  ) 'betrayal' is commiseration term if not an anthropomorphism... for fun. 

But, the NAO has been faux advertised many, many times in lore, and particularly in the last 10 years, that's been problematic.  That's sort of a rub with this thing - onus is sort of on the models to succeed less we be foolish.   

However, one would "think" this one has more legs because it's standing upon a foundation of strato stuff and a -AO and so forth.  

We'll see... 

[ORH_wxman]

I'm sort of on Kevin's train right now for the next 5 days. Not buying much yet for SNE. Best chance is prob pike region northward for Thursday afternoon/night...but even that is a bit iffy. 

I will admit that Sunday has a shot but I'm leaning mostly NNE for now. 

However, the pattern goes a lot more favorable after that with the big NAO block. Those are pretty friendly to us in March over the years so hopefully it delivers this time too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm sort of on Kevin's train right now for the next 5 days. Not buying much yet for SNE. Best chance is prob pike region northward for Thursday afternoon/night...but even that is a bit iffy. 

I will admit that Sunday has a shot but I'm leaning mostly NNE for now. 

However, the pattern goes a lot more favorable after that with the big NAO block. Those are pretty friendly to us in March over the years so hopefully it delivers this time too. 

SE ridge is killing us this week. Congrats Freak 

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He was saying snow for us Thursday and then Monday 

Shift north already started taking us out of any snow 

I never said snow for us, I most particularly said snow in PA needed to watched especially for western areas, congrats Berkshire Freak, although even the Euro is pretty cold

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm sort of on Kevin's train right now for the next 5 days. Not buying much yet for SNE. Best chance is prob pike region northward for Thursday afternoon/night...but even that is a bit iffy. 

I will admit that Sunday has a shot but I'm leaning mostly NNE for now. 

However, the pattern goes a lot more favorable after that with the big NAO block. Those are pretty friendly to us in March over the years so hopefully it delivers this time too. 

Discounting the Euro, EPS and GFS for Thursday for the other area of SNE, Mass?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I never said snow for us, I most particularly said snow in PA needed to watched especially for western areas, congrats Berkshire Freak, although even the Euro is pretty cold

You did mention SNE and even said SW CT.

Anyway these next 2 events will continue going way north each run here on out 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

... the pattern goes a lot more favorable after that with the big NAO block. Those are pretty friendly to us in March over the years so hopefully it delivers this time too. 

I think it has a shot at actually happening (wrt the NAO) this time.  I was just mentioning to someone else that this NAO appears to be physically connected to the concerted dive in the AO among the GEFs members...

I'm still not entirely sure that this -AO is really being driven along by the strato stuff?  The lag correlation is on the order of 20 days... we're like 7 days into that particular forcing from that which is provided on line anyways... But, people will easily conflate what's happening there ... no doubt.  Point being, I wonder what happens toward the end of next week if a whole different blocking tendency kicks in... 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You did mention SNE and even said SW CT.

Anyway these next 2 events will continue going way north each run here on out 

yo PF already told ya, you need to stop being so Tolland central. SNE does include the Berks, Pike North, its a Pike north pattern as Will said, sit back and cheer them on, perhaps Fertilizer time for you. Don't sleep on Thursday though

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You did mention SNE and even said SW CT.

Anyway these next 2 events will continue going way north each run here on out 

hopefully you get your days straight at some point