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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think Friday - Sunday is our next winter storm potential for pike-north.

I realize you didn't ask me, but ... I dunno if I'd get that quick with it .. :) but I see why you're saying it.  

( I suppose if we can go from a last night to Wednesday at 18z ...we can go the other way too - we'll keep that in mind. )

However, there is a midland possibility that the models are eroding the ridge too quickly ... Sending a cfropa through the NW arc of it while paralleling the flow as early as mid day Thursday is a little questionable.  Upon closer inspection of that .. the flow is actually more west to east at 500 mb over the top o the ridge, by the time Thursday arrives, and that may just be enough to punch SOME kind of front through.  However, even if so... I don't see that as an aggressive cold transport behind it...

I mean I don't want to be paradoxical here, either.. I realize I was just 'sounding' winter optimistic a couple hours back.  But I'm just considering this week as an entirely separate entity in time ... not to be confused with this:

change.jpg.1d5d7518740edc5da8dbcadbb0eaf5cb.jpg

Which may need some time to marinade.  I think we have to get past 200 hours. That won't take as long as people may think. I bet by this Thursday, 120's worth of that temporal journey we may already have something interesting in the middle range of the time ...

Can something happen early? I am not hugely confident in saying no.. but I'm not leaning that way.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah I'm kind of on the same page as needing to get past D8-9 before we get something cooking. I suppose next weekend could have some brief front end stuff? Maybe a little more substantial up in Maine. But for most of us I think we need to wait a little longer. Can't definitively rule it out though. GGEM tries something next Sunday night into Monday. But other guidance isn't biting. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

BTW for this week based on last weeks runs, EPS put an epic beatdown on the GEFS. GEFS were actually trying to keep us north of the boundary most of the week with winter threats sliding underneath us...while EPS were insisting we'd be warm sectored for multiple days. 

Schooled. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BTW for this week based on last weeks runs, EPS put an epic beatdown on the GEFS. GEFS were actually trying to keep us north of the boundary most of the week with winter threats sliding underneath us...while EPS were insisting we'd be warm sectored for multiple days. 

Schooled. 

yeah ... I noticed that too .. This particular ridge 'phenomenon,' what ever it is about this sucker man the ECMWF (the oper. version of all that...) has been locked in the bathroom with kleenex and hand lotioned over it for days - never deviated at all. 

Which means ...it would have nailed a synoptic overview within some 90th percentile at like D8! 

get it to do that with Nor'easter will ya. jesus

let alone, get it to forecast such a ridge in July.  I mean this is weird...

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm kind of on the same page as needing to get past D8-9 before we get something cooking. I suppose next weekend could have some brief front end stuff? Maybe a little more substantial up in Maine. But for most of us I think we need to wait a little longer. Can't definitively rule it out though. GGEM tries something next Sunday night into Monday. But other guidance isn't biting. 

I agree south of the pike for this week, but I think there’s a cold correction incoming on guidance after Wed.

12z EPS def keeps the door open for winter in NNE the latter half of the week. Ticked a bit colder after wed... More work to do to though...but def possible...

Looks like a lot of backdooring up here after midweek. And we all know how that doesn’t get well modeled until inside 48 hrs.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I am queen of that town. Lol. I love it here. Great town and great people. And yes th beach is amazing.

We're up in Wells, near the Kennebunk line. I often bike (as in bicycle) down there in the summer. The whole region is beautiful and yeah, Ogunquit has its share of queens and their entourages. 

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