February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Lava Rock]

Now, this is a torch.   12Z GFS maxs temps for Wednesday.  I believe the NH state February record is 72F.  Would be quite a feat to break that and on the 21rst of the month.  Meanwhile the big ice fishing derby on Newfound Lake next weekend.  Ice is very thick right now but wonder how much deterioration by next weekend?

Just nuts.

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[#NoPoles]

I'm officially done with winter. I've been following what Tippy has been posting. SPING! Bring it!

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

I'm officially done with winter. I've been following what Tippy has been posting. SPING! Bring it!

Winter's not even done yet

[Damage In Tolland]

Low clouds are gonna ruin Tip’s torch Tuesday / Wednesday. Instead of 70 we’re locked 55-60 and low clouds. What a shame 

[dendrite]

MEX for Wed

MHT 72, CON 71, ASH 71

[HoarfrostHubb]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Low clouds are gonna ruin Tip’s torch Tuesday / Wednesday. Instead of 70 we’re locked 55-60 and low clouds. What a shame 

I’m willing to take the over on that.  Some will hit 70

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m willing to take the over on that.  Some will hit 70

There’s a real threat of low clouds in SNE. South flow in Feb isn’t a downslope . Maybe north of NH border they can clear out

[Damage In Tolland]

 

With that said...there is one big fly in the ointment that
could result in cooler temperatures than we are currently
forecasting. Model cross sections indicate a fair amount of low
clouds on Tue and possibly some on Wed. If low clouds do get in
the way it still would be mild...but high temps would mainly be
in the 50s. Greater concern for low clouds appears to be
Tue...but can not rule them out Wed either especially near the
south coast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah....I could see that.   Places like KBED, KASH, KFIT are in a good spot for 70 I think

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Low clouds are gonna ruin Tip’s torch Tuesday / Wednesday. Instead of 70 we’re locked 55-60 and low clouds. What a shame 

It's not my torch ...  ?

Just to make that clear... it's the Euro's torch.  Also, in my defense: I did write about the RH contamination in the GFS versus the Euro - so it is not like I am blind to it.  Climatology on deep layer continental warm conveyors in late winter through spring, in NE, is a bone dry air mass tendency.  That is a factor that whomever is ultimately responsible for writing that excerpt above is clearly not considering, ...otherwise...they probably would have mentioned it. 

We'll see... but, a lot of this is going to come down to how much snow pack persists after the initial warming.  If there is a cold ground in the forms of pervasive snow/ice, with an over-top warm llv flow, that could offset the climo thinking some.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm weirdly excited for Wednesday's torch. Prob because I took the week off and I also just setup a new grill on the deck we got for Christmas. 

Should be one day of almost early summer. 

 

Anyways, for us winter enthusiasts who aren't ready to punt on the season yet, the 06z GFS shows you how the strong NAO blocking can work very well in our favor for snow. Early march is a good time for that too as you shorten the wavelengths just a bit but not so much as to render the NAO useless like it is in summer. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm weirdly excited for Wednesday's torch. Prob because I took the week off and I also just setup a new grill on the deck we got for Christmas. 

Should be one day of almost early summer. 

 

Anyways, for us winter enthusiasts who aren't ready to punt on the season yet, the 06z GFS shows you how the strong NAO blocking can work very well in our favor for snow. Early march is a good time for that too as you shorten the wavelengths just a bit but not so much as to render the NAO useless like it is in summer. 

 

I think of this as "January thaw in February" ...

I realize the Euro is trying to pull the spring trigger with it's operational tenor as of late, but there are environmental cues and longer term teleconnector arguments for that to not be the case.  If there were none I still would be leery ... it's February 18 for f-sake.  I usually cringe with pure climate as the argument but even for me that's just too damn early.  I suppose 2012 showed us that yeah... you can essentially have a year without a winter but that trend is already failed for this year. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm weirdly excited for Wednesday's torch. Prob because I took the week off and I also just setup a new grill on the deck we got for Christmas. 

Should be one day of almost early summer. 

 

Anyways, for us winter enthusiasts who aren't ready to punt on the season yet, the 06z GFS shows you how the strong NAO blocking can work very well in our favor for snow. Early march is a good time for that too as you shorten the wavelengths just a bit but not so much as to render the NAO useless like it is in summer. 

Break out the Jorts!

Next snow window Morch 1-10 or so?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Break out the Jorts!

Next snow window Morch 1-10 or so?

Yeah I don't think we see anything in SNE before March except maybe a little front end stuff briefly next week? Could always change but early march looks better. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Probably the following doesn't mean much ... so I wonder... but, the 200+ hour operational GFS is showing -NAO stress on the storm track. 

Cyclones are slamming to a crawl and then collapsing SE from the MA/NE regions as oppose to racing toward England like they have since ... 2013 really...

It's probable that there is a three day -NAO that the GFS for some reason senses as a comet impact as usual ... but, this has been going on in the la-la range on every cycle for several days now.  It started out at 300+ hours... lasted every cycle since, and is now 200+ ...

Meanwhile, we still are assessing the destabilized strata/downwelling and if the -AO has any legs heading into March. 

It's probably going to be hard for people to engage in this dialogue on Wednesday afternoon... Foreboding may be a bit strong of a word, but these could still be early cues to keep a chin up if you are winter enthusiast.   We used to have a saying ... 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold, BOOM'

[ORH_wxman]

Agreed Tip. 

ECMWF and it's ensmebles are finally getting it to d10 now.

 

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS are more aggressive in retrograding the block. They basically turn it into a Hudson Bay/Baffin type deal. 

 

 

[jbenedet]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't think we see anything in SNE before March except maybe a little front end stuff briefly next week? Could always change but early march looks better. 

I think things can start to get interesting in a hurry after Wed. Last week in February looks really good per the teleconnections...

[CoastalWx]

The fake out after this week will be interesting. March looks rather stormy on all guidance. That’s a good block. The pacific is still not great....would be awesome to keep retrograding the Pacific to the point we pop a +PNA.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fake out after this week will be interesting. March looks rather stormy on all guidance. That’s a good block. The pacific is still not great....would be awesome to keep retrograding the Pacific to the point we pop a +PNA.

Another positive I am seeing on the EPS and GEFS is a return to a negative EPO. That coupled with the negative AO and NAO could be a powder keg.

Add in the MJO going through phases 8 1 and 2 for good measure.

Hope this does not muck of spring.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Another positive I am seeing on the EPS and GEFS is a return to a negative EPO. That coupled with the negative AO and NAO could be a powder keg.

Add in the MJO going through phases 8 1 and 2 for good measure.

Hope this does not muck of spring.

Still troughing out west so no real cold to be found. But, that trough will likely spit out s/w’s where the nao block will hopefully do its job and shove it south of us. 

[jbenedet]

North of Pike is open up to winter storms beginning Thurs. imo. South of there will have to wait a bit longer but next week  looks worth watching for all. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fake out after this week will be interesting. March looks rather stormy on all guidance. That’s a good block. The pacific is still not great....would be awesome to keep retrograding the Pacific to the point we pop a +PNA.

And I am wondering less if, but 'when' that happens, if it comes 'in like a lion' like ? 

The MJO is skirting through Phase 8 on into 1 ...2 now in the GEFs, and I think it always has been in the EPS as Jerry pointed out week or whenever ago.  it's not hugely coherent in the Wheeler diagram, but gaining... Anyway, if there is some forcing out in the Pac it's probably not really even that represented in the teleconnectors ...much less the operational versions, and may not until some sort of threshold is crossed ... and then the index rises as a modality as yet -

For now, there really isn't much +PNA in the GEFs derivatives...but again, any forcing may simply not be registered just yet.  This is all tough to gauge though - I've seen these signals not bear fruit in the past.  I suppose it is just the point to say that 'at least we are not completely barren of signals here.'

 

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still troughing out west so no real cold to be found. But, that trough will likely spit out s/w’s where the nao block will hopefully do its job and shove it south of us. 

Even with the lack of cold, wouldn't a good storm track leverage enough cold nearby? Especially if its a strong storm off the coast?

I think Don posted a while back where the negative PNA coupled with a negative NAO produce in the northeast.

[EastonSN+]

Quoting Don WRT negative PNA relevance in March below....not an expert so cannot opine on why, however "shortening wavelengths" seems to be the reason..

Yesterday’s high temperature in Central Park was 62°, marking the second consecutive day with a high temperature of 60° or above. As a result, NYC has now seen three consecutive years during which there were at least two consecutive 60° maximum temperatures. Last year’s record warm February featured a stretch of three consecutive 60° or above readings.

Yesterday also saw a number of record high temperatures tied or broken in the region.

Bridgeport: 54° (tied record set in 2009)
New York City:
…JFK: 58° (tied record set in 1966)
…LGA: 63° (old record: 58°, 1984)
…NYC: 62° (tied record set in 1999)

Looking farther ahead, it remains uncertain whether the AO will go strongly negative for a sustained period of time later this month. Even as the EPS is indicating the development of such blocking just after 2/20, it should be noted that the EPS missed badly over a similar timeframe with the current AO+ regime. Therefore, it is possible that any strong blocking could hold off until near the start of March, should it develop at all. If so, the prospect of February’s having a mean temperature of 40.0° or above in New York City could increase markedly. Currently, the probability of a 40.0° or above February mean temperature is near 45%. The latest EPS weekly guidance supports such an outcome.

Such February warmth has been uncommon in New York City’s climate record, which extends back to 1869. Since that time, there have been just 8 cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in NYC, meaning that such warmth has occurred about once every 18.6 years. However, the incidence of such warmth has been skewed toward recent decades. Since 1990, such warmth has occurred once every approximately 4.7 years. 75% of those cases have occurred from 1990 or later; 38% from 2000 or later; and 25% from 2010 or later. The warmest February on record had a mean temperature of 41.6° (2017).

In terms of snowfall prospects, shortening wave lengths make the PNA less relevant to significant (6” or greater snowfall) snowstorms in the NYC area beyond mid-February. For example, during the 2/20-3/10/1950-2017 period, NYC has seen 12 6” or greater snowstorms. 67% occurred when the AO was negative, but 50% occurred with a PNA+. Both of NYC’s 10” or greater snowstorms during that timeframe occurred with an AO-/PNA- pattern.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/12 36.5° (2.6° above normal)
2/15 37.4°-38.2° (2/12 estimate: 37.2°-38.4°)
2/20 37.7°-39.8° (2/12 estimate: 37.8°-40.2°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 72% (2/12 estimate: 65%).

For now, winter 2017-18 is hibernating. It still remains likely that there will be a period of wintry weather (possibly of 2 weeks’ duration) before winter breaks for good. Early to mid-March might currently offer the most likely timing, though one can’t rule out a transition toward such a pattern in the closing days of February. Uncertainty remains higher than usual given recent poor performance by the ensembles in forecasting the major teleconnections.

 

[jbenedet]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even with the lack of cold, wouldn't a good storm track leverage enough cold nearby? Especially if its a strong storm off the coast?

I think Don posted a while back where the negative PNA coupled with a negative NAO produce in the northeast.

Depends on how bad the Pacific is and how good the blocking is. The Pacific has signficant troughing—and that doesn’t appear to be changing over the next two weeks (at least)— so it’s going to take signficant blocking for those who don’t have latitude....The stronger blocking doesn’t develop until around day 8-9.

[mahk_webstah]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fake out after this week will be interesting. March looks rather stormy on all guidance. That’s a good block. The pacific is still not great....would be awesome to keep retrograding the Pacific to the point we pop a +PNA.

we need a symbol for "PNA queen".  Speaking of queens, you enjoying Ogunquit?  One of the best beaches on the east coast of NA

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

we need a symbol for "PNA queen".  Speaking of queens, you enjoying Ogunquit?  One of the best beaches on the east coast of NA

I am queen of that town. Lol. I love it here. Great town and great people. And yes th beach is amazing.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm weirdly excited for Wednesday's torch. Prob because I took the week off and I also just setup a new grill on the deck we got for Christmas. 

Should be one day of almost early summer. 

 

Anyways, for us winter enthusiasts who aren't ready to punt on the season yet, the 06z GFS shows you how the strong NAO blocking can work very well in our favor for snow. Early march is a good time for that too as you shorten the wavelengths just a bit but not so much as to render the NAO useless like it is in summer. 

I feel very much the same.  Planning to be up on our land (house almost done, moving in 3 weeks) hoping to do some work along the edges of the field.  Best time of year to trim brush.  I wonder how soon the crocuses start popping?/

Personally, given that I live in the Province of Dendrite, I really like -NAO -PNA patterns.  strong NAO blocks scare me unless there is a trough in the sw spitting out energy that wants to cut, but then swfes and redevelopers that can slow down.  I think it is a great pattern up my way, and I think we might get there before March.

[512high]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I am queen of that town. Lol. I love it here. Great town and great people. And yes th beach is amazing.

And the restaurants are awesome!