February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not over though. 

We shall see.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

The bus will be back in the garage, and prepped for a long hiatus by noon on Sunday.

Lol ok.  I get the frustration.  You just might be giving up on this winter a lil too soon???   Time will tell.  Let's hope we get something decent tomorrow night into Sunday morning just to pad the stats if nothing else.  

[Sugarloaf1989]

After Sunday's no more snowfall in February,  the 24th looked interesting.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol ok.  I get the frustration.  You just might be giving up on this winter a lil too soon???   Time will tell.  Let's hope we get something decent tomorrow night into Sunday morning just to pad the stats if nothing else.  

Meanwhile, I'll let everyone sit here and go if only for this winter while i'm riding 200 miles tomorrow to Lake Parlin lodge...................

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Meanwhile, I'll let everyone sit here and go if only for this winter while i'm riding 200 miles tomorrow to Lake Parlin lodge...................

Yes Sir.  When you get out in the snow and play a little...even if you have to go and find it, it makes things like a warm up or a missed event much more tolerable.  Have a great trip!! 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Birds have been excessively active these past few warm mornings. 

happens around here in Middlesex Co every mid February .. .just about like clock work, and I suspect the termination of the annual solar nadir that happens around the 10th at our latitude may have some sort of signal proxy for that rambuncious step up in activity - less proven... In other words, sun-light triggering.

Even on cold mornings, ..there's a audible increased chatter of chirps along with short frenzied flights to and fro .. I've mentioned in here in past February's. Interesting behavioral change coincides ..or seems to, with turning to the slope in the upward direction. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes Sir.  When you get out in the snow and play a little...even if you have to go and find it, it makes things like a warm up or a missed event much more tolerable.  Have a great trip!! 

Thanks, Will do, No snow shortage where i'm heading tomorrow.

[dryslot]

Wrong thread but i agree on the Ukie.........

[Typhoon Tip]

 

I'm getting a bit more confident for the heat next week.  

The 00z GEFs individual members came in trended in favor of robuster SE ridging.  The rim of the 588 DM heights in the majority are finally over land in the SE, and that (absurd as it may seem to mention...) 594 DM circumvallate that's been lurking just off the coast in the Euro operational is now popping up in the majority of the GEFs members as well.  

Meanwhile, the GEFs derived PNA is really tact about as deeply as I recall ever seeing it at the CDC.  It's approaching -6 SD!  Funny thing is... while that is getting more coherent, the Euro has been rock steady on that ridge back east for like four days. 

Together, the two represent cross-guidance support; that's often a red flag when one operational run supports the alternate ensemble camp.  I've noticed this in the past... 

So, my previous arguments regarding persistence to always over sell those warm ridges in extended ranges: albeit still true (that's based upon what has already happened..) this time, we are either going to overcome that, or...it will be one helluva shimmering example of f-ing that up by the global models.  We'll see which ...but confidence for pretty significant and historic warm spell ramping up.  

 

[J Paul Gordon]

What are the probs of some back door cold front pushing in all the way to Albany?

[jbenedet]

Monday through Wed is a sub-forum wide torch. 

Thursday, winter comes back and ice and snow potential returns...

[J Paul Gordon]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

I'm getting a bit more confident for the heat next week.  

The 00z GEFs individual members came in trended in favor of robuster SE ridging.  The rim of the 588 DM heights in the majority are finally over land in the SE, and that (absurd as it may seem to mention...) 594 DM circumvallate that's been lurking just off the coast in the Euro operational is now popping up in the majority of the GEFs members as well.  

Meanwhile, the GEFs derived PNA is really tact about as deeply as I recall ever seeing it at the CDC.  It's approaching -6 SD!  Funny thing is... while that is getting more coherent, the Euro has been rock steady on that ridge back east for like four days. 

Together, the two represent cross-guidance support; that's often a red flag when one operational run supports the alternate ensemble camp.  I've noticed this in the past... 

So, my previous arguments regarding persistence to always over sell those warm ridges in extended ranges: albeit still true (that's based upon what has already happened..) this time, we are either going to overcome that, or...it will be one helluva shimmering example of f-ing that up by the global models.  We'll see which ...but confidence for pretty significant and historic warm spell ramping up.  

 

What are the probabilities of having one of the all time record cold stretches (for high temps in SNE) and and all time warm stretch in the same winter? Crapshoot, of course, but this one may actually play out.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

What are the probs of some back door cold front pushing in all the way to Albany?

Never 0 ... not around here, anyway.  North of about Cape May NJ and E of say ... Allentown PA, warm ups NE of that approximate access, from about this time of year until early June, they are like a good night at Vegas...?  You could lose at any time, but you can just tell the cards are peeling acing for you. 

Unlike say St Louis MO, where a warm pattern is just hammer clad.  

Fun descriptions aside ... you have to have pretty unique circulation construct(s) to make sure it stays warm throughout a modeled warm pattern.  In this case, ...we have them all.  That should lend confidence? It does, buuuut, that pesky circumstance of being D5 and 6 is only presently offset by the fact that this has a lot of cross guidance ensemble support and good continuity... 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

What are the probabilities of having one of the all time record cold stretches (for high temps in SNE) and and all time warm stretch in the same winter? Crapshoot, of course, but this one may actually play out.

"Probability"  ...?  

I dunno ... .I would have to say as a knee jerk obvious response, quite remote ... obviously.  But like 10.4 % ....?   no idea -

[J Paul Gordon]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Never 0 ... not around here, anyway.  North of about Cape May NJ and E of say ... Allentown PA, warm ups NE of that approximate access, from about this time of year until early June, they are like a good night at Vegas...?  You could lose at any time, but you can just tell the cards are peeling acing for you. 

Unlike say St Louis MO, where a warm pattern is just hammer clad.  

Fun descriptions aside ... you have to have pretty unique circulation construct(s) to make sure it stays warm throughout a modeled warm pattern.  In this case, ...we have them all.  That should lend confidence? It does, buuuut, that pesky circumstance of being D5 and 6 is only presently offset by the fact that this has a lot of cross guidance ensemble support and good continuity... 

This is what makes New England FUN to live in weatherwise.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Monday through Wed is a sub-forum wide torch. 

Thursday, winter comes back and ice and snow potential returns...

I was asked the other day what I thought about the rest of the winter - the asker seemed downtrodden. Ha.  and I was pretty optimistic with him for the first chunk of March- ah, at the time.... That was based solely on destablizing stratosphere/-AO expectation. I was thinking at the time that given these larger scale ...reasonably well correlated/proven variables that we would not see the last snow. 

That may still be true?  However, wouldn't you know, both American agencies are backing off the polarward indexes in that regard ...rather suddenly, as though the email itself caused the shift.  haha.

As to next week ... I wonder how quickly that corrects backward to be blunt.  The particulars among the Euro and GGEM ...even the UKMET... they don't really show the SE ridge collapsing enough. I could see that modulating back toward just above normal, as opposed to GIANTLY above normal... because the ridge plays games for while afterward, while there may not be enough changes in the surrounding westerlies.  The Pacific sucks man! and the NAO?  It's doing what all of them have done over ...10 years now, and that's Judas in the runs. 

It may yet comeback.. but I also suspect at this point that the ideas of the first paragraph above were really merely coincidental with the faux -NAO of the recent modeling.  Part of the suspicion of that is because there is a clear 15 to 20 day lag in the correlation with SSW's and -AO's... which the recent -NAO did not fit in temporally at all.  Plus, the SSW may not even be downwelling -that has yet to be determined as far as I can tell. If so then we may be in business for early March - otherwise, where's our forcing come from -

The background processes that typically cause early Nina springs seems to be kicking in ...and it'll need an offset.  

[tamarack]

46 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

What are the probabilities of having one of the all time record cold stretches (for high temps in SNE) and and all time warm stretch in the same winter? Crapshoot, of course, but this one may actually play out.

In 1980-81, CAR had some record-setting cold from the solstice into January, including their coldest maximum on record (-16) on 1/4.  In February they twice tied the mildest temp on record for that month (then 49) and broke it on 7 other days, finishing the month 14° AN.  The month included 7 consecutive days with departures 25-30 AN.  Then a mid-March storm forecast as 1-3" verified as a 22" blizzard.

[Cold Miser]

One news station here in CT has the start time has been pushed from 7pm to 9pm and ending around 6am instead of 7am

Not sure if that makes any kind of difference.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was asked the other day what I thought about the rest of the winter - the asker seemed downtrodden. Ha.  and I was pretty optimistic with him for the first chunk of March- ah, at the time.... That was based solely on destablizing stratosphere/-AO expectation. I was thinking at the time that given these larger scale ...reasonably well correlated/proven variables that we would not see the last snow. 

That may still be true?  However, wouldn't you know, both American agencies are backing off the polarward indexes in that regard ...rather suddenly, as though the email itself caused the shift.  haha.

As to next week ... I wonder how quickly that corrects backward to be blunt.  The particulars among the Euro and GGEM ...even the UKMET... they don't really show the SE ridge collapsing enough. I could see that modulating back toward just above normal, as opposed to GIANTLY above normal... because the ridge plays games for while afterward, while there may not be enough changes in the surrounding westerlies.  The Pacific sucks man! and the NAO?  It's doing what all of them have done over ...10 years now, and that's Judas in the runs. 

It may yet comeback.. but I also suspect at this point that the ideas of the first paragraph above were really merely coincidental with the faux -NAO of the recent modeling.  Part of the suspicion of that is because there is a clear 15 to 20 day lag in the correlation with SSW's and -AO's... which the recent -NAO did not fit in temporally at all.  Plus, the SSW may not even be downwelling -that has yet to be determined as far as I can tell. If so then we may be in business for early March - otherwise, where's our forcing come from -

The background processes that typically cause early Nina springs seems to be kicking in ...and it'll need an offset.  

Fair observations, that said this may be another case where we will want to split the forum in terms of general sensible weather impacts. Allowing for errors in either direction, the SE ridge isn't going away next week, BUT at the same time we are seeing UL troughing developing after midweek over SE Canada, greatly increasing the chances for backdooring. The NAO and AO may not be quickly flipping to negative, but they are at least trending favorably towards less positive phase states. As a result of the former and the crappy PAC, there's clearly a boundary setting up near our backyard, and right now it's easiest to say that NNE will largely remain north of it while areas not too far from us will be quite warmer. This could be a situation where the typical backdoor CAD locations are N to slightly BN while the rest of the subforum is largely AN....

[SJonesWX]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Meanwhile, I'll let everyone sit here and go if only for this winter while i'm riding 200 miles tomorrow to Lake Parlin lodge...................

I was trying to do the same thing earlier this week  then my sled (600 etec) broke down in the middle of moose fart; NH. Luckily I was able to limp it out to a road.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I was trying to do the same thing earlier this week  then my sled (600 etec) broke down in the middle of moose fart; NH. Luckily I was able to limp it out to a road.

Ouch, That sucks, I guess the computer flipped it to safe mode, What happened to it? The etecs are quite reliable.

[Typhoon Tip]

if we could ever get this to pass under LI  ... NE would go quite some distance toward correcting any seasonal snow fall deficits to the tune of even surplus ...

[CoastalWx]

An example of blocking gone right is the 18z GEFS.

[SJonesWX]

4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Ouch, That sucks, I guess the computer flipped it to safe mode, What happened to it? The etecs are quite reliable.

Engine light went on a few times, then sled went into limp mode each time. shut it off for a few mins and rode a bit further each time. By the time it quit, it sounded like it was on one cylinder. taking it to shop tomorrow morning 

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

Engine light went on a few times, then sled went into limp mode each time. shut it off for a few mins and rode a bit further each time. By the time it quit, it sounded like it was on one cylinder. taking it to shop tomorrow morning 

Good luck, Hope its nothing serious, I had just done a rebuild on mine last year.

[Organizing Low]

2 more inches of fresh snow here this afternoon to spruce things up again,

 

has been such an odd winter up here, in that after every stretch of warm weather has ended with a refresher snow...no there have not been any 'big' storms, but it deifntely has been the most persistent snow cover since i moved to the CPV 5 years ago with frequent snows....5 years, cant believe its been that long!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Check it out

 

Anyway, check out the Kocin book sometime. It's amazing how much stronger High and Low pressures are now

[Damage In Tolland]

70 a lock on Tues/Wed. No snow in sight after tonight. -NAO pushed back again

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

70 a lock on Tues/Wed. No snow in sight after tonight. -NAO pushed back again

GFS has CON’s first ever Feb 70F.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS has CON’s first ever Feb 70F.

It's a shut down run for many places even up into Canada. Hopefully they can open back up by early Morch