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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully Euro is overdoing the warmth next week...at least to the extent that the ski areas get spared.

I still think so ..  altho, I won't lie ... I was a taken aback by the EPS seemingly taking a step toward that warmer look.  I suppose I'll be more ready to capitulate if we can get that inside of D5 but I've seen sooo many of these balmy ridges in the Euro going back several years now ..right smack in this sort of time range, fail.

It happened this week - hello folks?   It happened back in the third week of December just before xmass - in fact, we ended that stretch in an ice storm.  And guess what, the GFS hasn't been far from that either.

Trust me, as brick solid as that may seem in the Euro and it's members, they lay eggs over heat domes in their longer ranges - I just know that by experience.  If it happens ...it happens... probably it rolls up to a -NAO anyway.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So you mean mild pattern continues .. just hoping for a thread the needle in Morch like this weekend?

No.  I’m saying I don’t see this so-called new pattern as a very cold one. Not with that Pacific. However it’s a pretty good pattern to offer some storm chances.  I’m also not going to knee jerk off every wax and wane the ensemble. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

No.  I’m saying I don’t see this so-called new pattern as a very cold one. Not with that Pacific. However it’s a pretty good pattern to offer some storm chances.  I’m also not going to knee jerk off every wax and wane the ensemble. 

I suppose this is subjective, but that's another reason why I like it. Very cold typically isn't conducive to big winter storms. If we get the BZ in our neighborhood and if we're hovering around the low to mid 30's that's a win in my book....Just bring the disturbances and climo will take care of the rest....

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully Euro is overdoing the warmth next week...at least to the extent that the ski areas get spared.

Overnight version of this starting the betrayal process for the warm enthusiasts, right on schedule... It's trying to be sneaky about the way it's going about doing it, too.. (haha).  Seriously tho, the front side escape into barotropic air is delayed like 10 hours... and the end of it lost a whole day or even day and a half's worth of time.  This version collapses the ridge sooner and limits the total duration of absurd warmth to unusual latitudes... 

Which, will keep going I think... But, it probably won't disappear all together.  I think of this as the winter version of what the Euro's done during summers over the last 5 years...over and over and over again.  It manufactures these giant Terran event ridges D 7.5 to D11, then ... by the time the interval verifies it's 18 hours of elevated thickness in higher DPs, thundery rains ... followed by desert dry NW Canadian air.   It saw the 18 hour severe day as a grid crippling heat wave is what it boils down to..  I mean not exactly but you get my drift... I just know per personal experience not to trust warm departures from anything with the prefix "Euro" associated to it - I don't care what this model(s) reputation is founded upon.  

I can't say the GFS is really any better? I have't really noticed one way or the other, tho... I just know that I have seen maybe 10 historic warm departures on the Euro verify 0 times.

This persistence needs to be overcome before I believe that ridge next week. I've been saying that all along and low-and-behold, I am not shocked to see the heat shrink ...tho admittedly, still impressive on that one unadulterted day.  Hell, it's a relative victory for my train of reasoning here in using persistence if we do still get the one day; because even that much correct stands to reason. We'll see... 

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