Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,702
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Stakasa
    Newest Member
    Stakasa
    Joined

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's interesting ... refuses to ease off on that even a little. 

y'all know this but ... stating the obvious,  +13.5 C at 850 on a very well deeply mixed west-southwest flow pushing 75+ is just absurdly enough above climo to start looking for ways that's not going to happen. ... That's really getting to the point of being a top tier climate event - it's just not the kind the buries a town and sweeps a beach home away but... it's somethin' to behold. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is a pretty classic setup for a fluff bomb even well north of the best LL forcing. Someone who is going to get 3 tenths of L.E. gets surprised when they are shoveling 7 inches of feathers...that type of thing. There's actually some sneaky potential for a little instability with that vortmax looking like it is. Not predicting it yet, but this could go pretty solidly into warning territory if we see that vortmax trend a bit stronger/compact with the neg tilt there.

 

Anyways, still 3.5 days out...so plenty of time for changes for better or worse.

Can it really get any ‘better’?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

RE the SE ridge ... I couldn't find a single GEFs member that agrees with the Euro on the spacial extent and veritical depth of that feature in that time frame.  I'm curious what the EPS thinks of that... 

For the time being, that's a pretty stark modeling contention there -

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Much of the -nao being modeled has been day 9/10 onward.  Gefs doesn't really look to different with that gradient look on day 9. 

Perhaps .. but the operational GFS had it's best expression of a -NAO/ridging near Greenland between 200 and 240 hours...  That's really what I had in mind.  

Frankly, the GFS' extended la-la range didn't look very interesting in the NAO either.  

Not saying it won't happen ...but, the models have been bad for quite some time at constructing -NAO's and we've not really seen very many of those succeed.  

Still, we have the warm strata stuff going on ...so, perhaps unrelated, eventually some sort of -AO response week 3 like you suggest may be the better time to look for this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

RE the SE ridge ... I couldn't find a single GEFs member that agrees with the Euro on the spacial extent and veritical depth of that feature in that time frame.  I'm curious what the EPS thinks of that... 

For the time being, that's a pretty stark modeling contention there -

I'm selling on those temps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps .. but the operational GFS had it's best expression of a -NAO/ridging near Greenland between 200 and 240 hours...  That's really what I had in mind.  

Frankly, the GFS' extended la-la range didn't look very interesting in the NAO either.  

Not saying it won't happen ...but, the models have been bad for quite some time at constructing -NAO's and we've not really seen very many of those succeed.  

Still, we have the warm strata stuff going on ...so, perhaps unrelated, eventually some sort of -AO response week 3 like you suggest may be the better time to look for this. 

The gefs is always nao and Ao happy in the extended (op too). I'd stick with the EPS personally on that stuff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted

Well, instead of whining about the flight of winter I'm gonna damn well enjoy those mild days. And yeah, I sure hope winter comes back in March and we get hit with a couple of monster  snow storms followed by (seasonally adjusted) intense cold. With the greatly extended daylight we might just get to go snowshoeing after all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I'd like the geopotential medium across the south to ease up about ...otherwise, that's a better pattern for finally slowing systems down.   Man, seems like we're on Neptune!   

I almost wonder if the easterly biased appeal of that -NAO overall is contributing to the former issue because in terms of wave numbering/spacing. The trough in the west/Pacific isn't helping

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd like the geopotential medium across the south to ease up about ...otherwise, that's a better pattern for finally slowing systems down.   Man, seems like we're on Neptune!   

I almost wonder if the easterly biased appeal of that -NAO overall is contributing to the former issue because in terms of wave numbering/spacing. The trough in the west/Pacific isn't helping

Yeah it seems that the se ridge takes time to kill. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Word has it euro op much is typically warmer than eps mean because it is a single scalar value pitted against a mean of a lot of different solutions, but the differences are not meaningfully large in this case  on Twitter 

Yup, most Mets agree

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...