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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

NAM looks pretty amped at 84h.  Maybe it's on to something or maybe it's being the NAM.  I'm leading a trip with 31 people flying out of JFK at 6:30pm on Sat night (Greece school trip).  This thing better not speed up!!!!

Hoping for a slower and more amped solution that turns NYC to rain while New England gets pounded!  I hate to miss a storm, but I hope this one comes through for y'all!

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

NAM looks pretty amped at 84h.  Maybe it's on to something or maybe it's being the NAM.  I'm leading a trip with 31 people flying out of JFK at 6:30pm on Sat night (Greece school trip).  This thing better not speed up!!!!

International flights are rarely cancelled unless some sort of massive snow event occurs.  Like a foot or more or winds are very strong.  I would expect if it’s a run of the mill 8 inch or less event you’d be good  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

By "suppression", I'm saying I don't think we see this system come off the Carolinas and go OTS.  I think a track further N suits the developing pattern more giving the SE Ridge and developing AO/NAO coupled with the ridging building into AK.  

OOh, that's what you mean... Sure.  I suppose I'm thinking of "compression" really - but yeah. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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The Euro is mostly on its own at the moment in regards to it having the best positioning and strength of the high pressure area in advance of the system over the region.  The NAM finally seeing this is positive.  The NAM gets bashed but it’s tipped us off a few times this winter at 72-84 that whatever the most progressive global at that time was would end up being correct 

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

International flights are rarely cancelled unless some sort of massive snow event occurs.  Like a foot or more or winds are very strong.  I would expect if it’s a run of the mill 8 inch or less event you’d be good  

Phewwwwww!  Thanks!  We're taking a bus to JFK from Albany, so I'm glad Saturday during the day looks like clear sailing!  Even if the storm happens, it looks like snow won'l start much before 0Z anyway.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah, that NAM solution underscores a similar phenomenon we've seen across several modeled events this season.  I think it's endemic to the fast flow.  I realize some think the flow is slowing down, but ... that's just not happening within the framework of this particular model solution - that's all I am commenting on.  

But what's happening there is that the high is retreating seaward and the return flow "normally" would erode out the cold quickly because all levels, en masse, physically move away. However, even doing so, the mid troposphere is moving faster than those lower tropospheric events can unfold.  It's a complication dealing with density differential between the Ekman boundary layer kinematics versus mid levels..

Anyway, so you have a net WAA signaure there and you still can get some overrunning going despite the look of SW flow.   It's SWFE I guess...  yeah. But, it's another oddity in that regard because the low is probably destined to close off a sfc PP S of us considering the axis of jet structures. In fact, it wouldn't be too absurd to have a "SWFE" sort of morph around into CCB if the close low deepens substantially enough/mechanics.   

The upshot to all that ...if you don't like this run, it has about 0 chance of happening outside of a dumb luck.  

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is mostly on its own at the moment in regards to it having the best positioning and strength of the high pressure area in advance of the system over the region.  The NAM finally seeing this is positive.  The NAM gets bashed but it’s tipped us off a few times this winter at 72-84 that whatever the most progressive global at that time was would end up being correct 

I probably can agree with you on this part to some extent, But it has been bad with most events even right up to go time, The 02/07 event was a good example as the 06z run the day of had my area seeing 2.7" of snow and we ended up with 8.5"............lol

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

Correct me if I’m wrong, I see a couple of things going against this event. The first, my fear is it could end up just sliding out south of us... what some variations of all models have shown over the last day or two. 

If it does trend North.... it looks like it could end up as a crap mixed bag... especially Pike South. 

Like many other events this year... seems like we are trying to thread the needle in a super fast flow. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Yeah, this NAM run really shows how all this is purely related to the strength/handling of ...whatever the Pacific pukes ...  The wave out there at 72 or so hours is coherently more intense coming through the west.  It's a flat, open wave storm.  These are tricky...There are plenty of NJ model storms that fit/could serve as examples for why. They can be quick and fierce ... bombing from roughly  Cape May to SE ACK and unleashing a band of S+ along about 2 or 3 deg latitude on the polarward side. This thing hints at that sort of evolution but ...time will tell. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is mostly on its own at the moment in regards to it having the best positioning and strength of the high pressure area in advance of the system over the region.  The NAM finally seeing this is positive.  The NAM gets bashed but it’s tipped us off a few times this winter at 72-84 that whatever the most progressive global at that time was would end up being correct 

And the Ukie

Nam can be overamped at times

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, that NAM solution underscores a similar phenomenon we've seen across several modeled events this season.  I think it's endemic to the fast flow.  I realize some think the flow is slowing down, but ... that's just not happening within the framework of this particular model solution - that's all I am commenting on.  

But what's happening there is that the high is retreating seaward and the return flow "normally" would erode out the cold quickly because all levels, en masse, physically move away. However, even doing so, the mid troposphere is moving faster than those lower tropospheric events can unfold.  It's a complication dealing with density differential between the Ekman boundary layer kinematics versus mid levels..

Anyway, so you have a net WAA signaure there and you still can get some overrunning going despite the look of SW flow.   It's SWFE I guess...  yeah. But, it's another oddity in that regard because the low is probably destined to close off a sfc PP S of us considering the axis of jet structures.   

The upshot is that ...if you don't like this run, it has about 0 chance of happening outside of a dumb luck.  

There really isn't any "cold" to be found over the eastern CONUS; it's seasonable  at best.  And at H5, there isn't anything replenishing the little cold we do have as this system approaches. It won't take much to build heights ahead of this little guy despite the relatively fast and progressive nature of the overall setup...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There really isn't any "cold" to be found over the eastern CONUS; it's seasonable  at best.  And at H5, there isn't anything replenishing the little cold we do have as this system approaches. It won't take much to build heights ahead of this little guy despite the relatively fast and progressive nature of the overall setup...

I was actually just wondering (also..) ... if that wave comes off the Pacific strong, it will probably cut early .. .much to the chagrin, this sudden savior from a doldrum pattern becomes  a warm sector. 

Plus, (not you per se..) but that ridge showing up in the EPS like that next week makes me wonder (admittedly) if the GFS is just to erosive with the top of the ridge.  It really does carry the warm up into the eastern CONUS, it just limits the polarward extent to mid Jersey or so.. The Euro wants to flood to Rochester ...  Otherwise like Will and I were discussing, the variance there is small synoptically; just carries a big sensible difference.   hm. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was actually just wondering (also..) ... if that wave comes off the Pacific strong, it will probably cut early .. .much to the chagrin, this sudden savior from a doldrum pattern becomes  a warm sector. 

When the navgem is amped...

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, that NAM solution underscores a similar phenomenon we've seen across several modeled events this season.  I think it's endemic to the fast flow.  I realize some think the flow is slowing down, but ... that's just not happening within the framework of this particular model solution - that's all I am commenting on.  

But what's happening there is that the high is retreating seaward and the return flow "normally" would erode out the cold quickly because all levels, en masse, physically move away. However, even doing so, the mid troposphere is moving faster than those lower tropospheric events can unfold.  It's a complication dealing with density differential between the Ekman boundary layer kinematics versus mid levels..

Anyway, so you have a net WAA signaure there and you still can get some overrunning going despite the look of SW flow.   It's SWFE I guess...  yeah. But, it's another oddity in that regard because the low is probably destined to close off a sfc PP S of us considering the axis of jet structures. In fact, it wouldn't be too absurd to have a "SWFE" sort of morph around into CCB if the close low deepens substantially enough/mechanics.   

The upshot to all that ...if you don't like this run, it has about 0 chance of happening outside of a dumb luck.  

While the flow may not slow, we do appear to see a buckling of it.

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