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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Classic model mayhem, given fast flow. Overall synoptic pattern to me still says suppression may not be an issue though. Not many systems that have a trough of low pressure in the Great lakes and a retreating high, miss. Not impossible, but JMHO.

And why is the ICON and NAVGEM mentioned more than once a day?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Classic model mayhem, given fast flow. Overall synoptic pattern to me still says suppression may not be an issue though. Not many systems that have a trough of low pressure in the Great lakes and a retreating high, miss. Not impossible, but JMHO.

And why is the ICON and NAVGEM mentioned more than once a day?

When the GFS is most amped with rain for s coast..It's probably coming

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like some things are shut down next week unfortunately 

 

I could really use a big thaw like that...then we can go out with a bang. It's not a winter for epic snowpack anyway so let's do a dawn awakening sandwiched between some 70s.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

And why is the ICON and NAVGEM mentioned more than once a day?

Well... the obvious answer, because the other model types are less aligning with snow. Simple, Euro no, Icon yes ... But the figurative reply?   - people will always choose delusion over despair.  

That said, I think the weekend system is still on the table.  Not that you or anyone said otherwise, but ... the tired old sampling argument is unfortunately still both valid and necessary.

The differences between these successive modeling cycles with the weekend gig is almost entirely the strength of the S/W mechanics amid the southern stream.  The flow above the 40th parallel, from off the Washington coast clear around the hemisphere to NF has been more stable in this 84 to 130 hour range, and has been for a few cycles now.  Meanwhile, when there has been more "kink" coming out of the southern Rockies, we get a gulf ingested gulp of of pwat lopping over this weekend's nascent polar air .. and a belated almost NJ model spin up out of the deal.  When it's less...flat.  The modeling affair has been pretty much on or off like that.  

So the 00z GFS so more where the Euro saw less. But, the Euro did see more yesterday at 12z's cycle, rendering it's total 24 suite as having bad continuity.  Not sure, but when people rush to be the first to inform everyone how bad a model run is ... these fundamental very easy 101 immediate analysis techniques are always left out.  Just, "Euro is flat... ...oooh my god."  Funny. 

Anyway, the 06z ICON of crap model had very little S/W presentation leading, but the 00z and 18z before had much more.  So yeah, I mentioned the model, but it's more so to elucidate the point. I have no idea how good or bad based upon actual numbers that model is, its strengths and weakness' therein.  

The fast flow is crippling deterministic efforts.  Said wave mechanics ...really don't relay off the Pac until 60 hours from 00z last night... 60!  Yet, a mere day and half later it results in this TV zygote slop low trying to lift up the cordillera and MA into NE in the GFS run.  Good luck. Some incorrectly identified said Pac wave as coming on board this morning but that's not it... 

  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM wanting no part of it worries me a bit.  The NAM isn’t the joke at 72-84 it was 2-3 years ago 

I am wondering if the NAM most likely won't have it/present like the global runs until at least some portion of the impulse is actually, physically inside its domain. 

Not you per se, but ... folks need to remember, the edge of the NAM's domain is roughly in that area. Hence the name:  "North American Meso ... " 

Where the wave is now? It is outside the edge of the visible universe to that model for all intents and purposes.  That said, yeah...I have a faint memory of once reading that the edges of the domain are populated by the previous GFS system's features at their 6 hourly position.. Whether true or not, I have personally noticed many times in the past that for system coming in on a flattish trajectory off the Pac that the NAM seems to "not know it is there" until pretty late in the game and so far, though this is still a fledgling story line... the early chapters look the same. 

 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

I'll probably take some criticism for this, but the progressive and fast solutions for Sunday are just simply OTL, imo. 

We receive significant help on the part of both the AO -- and yes-- even the NAO for this event. This will not be a case of history repeating itself - the super-progressive, fast flow regime over the eastern CONUS that we have been experiencing the past few weeks will be a trap for those relying on persistence. There is also some PV interaction showing up on guidance, and that seems plausible to me given the phase state of the AO around go time; however, the 6z NAVGEM seems overzealous while the 6z GFS seems too disinterested in that feature. A blend of those two runs seems most realistic to me at this point - 990's low that tracks ~50 miles south of the cape, heading ENE to just south of NS.

At this point the more amped members of the 6z GEFS that take this down to 980 ish towards the bay of fundy are likely just as incorrect as the members that have this eject ots 200 miles south of NS. Split the difference.

 

 

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'll probably take some criticism for this, but the progressive and fast solutions for Sunday are just simply OTL, imo. 

We receive significant help on the part of both the AO -- and yes-- even the NAO for this event. This will not be a case of history repeating itself - the super-progressive, fast flow regime over the eastern CONUS that we have been experiencing the past few weeks will be a trap for those relying on persistence. There is also some PV interaction showing up on guidance, and that seems plausible to me given the phase state of the AO around go time; however, the 6z NAVGEM seems overzealous while the 6z GFS seems too disinterested in that feature. A blend of those two runs seems most realistic to me at this point - 990's low that tracks ~50 miles south of the cape, heading ENE to just south of NS.

At this point the more amped members of the 6z GEFS that take this down to 980 ish towards the bay of fundy are likely just as incorrect as the members that have this eject ots 200 miles south of NS. Split the difference.

 

 

the flow is supper fast its in and out, likely a 6 hour event if the event even occurs which is suspect at this point.  I could easily see a shredded look to this where no one sees much of anything

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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Posted
2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

the flow is supper fast its in and out, likely a 6 hour event if the event even occurs which is suspect at this point.  I could easily see a shredded look to this where no one sees much of anything

It's "super fast" on guidance today - what will it be in 96 hrs? My thinking is significantly less progressive for the reasons I outlined above...

Not shredded, but not really wound up either. 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

So glad I did not bother looking at anything last night.  What a cluster-eff on models overnight.  I agree with some sentiments that "suppression" does not appear to be an issue.  Lot of players on the field(fast flow, se ridge, developing -AO/-NAO,  so we sit and wait.

why?

the fast flow is inherently suppression...  It's fast because there are cold heights N and hot heights S spread out over an unusually short distance for the differential, which is the same circumstance ...  Seriously, not trying to be a dink, but I'm confused as to how/why people are making that assessment? 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

why?

the fast flow is inherently suppression...  It's fast because there are cold heights N and hot heights S spread out over an unusually short distance for the differential, which is the same circumstance ...  Seriously, not trying to be a dink, but I'm confused as to how/why people are making that assessment? 

By "suppression", I'm saying I don't think we see this system come off the Carolinas and go OTS.  I think a track further N suits the developing pattern more giving the SE Ridge and developing AO/NAO coupled with the ridging building into AK.  

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

why?

the fast flow is inherently suppression...  It's fast because there are cold heights N and hot heights S spread out over an unusually short distance for the differential, which is the same circumstance ...  Seriously, not trying to be a dink, but I'm confused as to how/why people are making that assessment? 

It’s fast, but will be considerably slower than what we’ve been seeing the past 10 days imo. The teleconnections reflect that. 

In my view we will see some ridging build out ahead of this wave. The pattern may be fast, but it’s not suppressive over the eastern Conus. In my view UL heights will build sufficiently to enable modest (but progressive) PV interaction. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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34 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

the flow is supper fast its in and out, likely a 6 hour event if the event even occurs which is suspect at this point.  I could easily see a shredded look to this where no one sees much of anything

Yesterday you told us it was a sunny weekend with nothing but HP :lol:. Stick to other hobbies 

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