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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GEFS are not warm next week....def a bit of a model battle with the EPS though which are warmer...but the EPS has been coming around a little flatter in recent runs.

 

 

Feb13_18zGEFS.gif

Gibbs mentioned that the Gfs suite is useless and performs terribly when the PNA is lower than -1.5. So I don’t know if we can put much faith in them

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gibbs mentioned that the Gfs suite is useless and performs terribly when the PNA is lower than -1.5. So I don’t know if we can put much faith in them

I'd def not take them over the EPS if that is what you are implying. But even the EPS is very gradientish...it just has it further NW. But a 300-400 mile error wouldn't be very weird at this time range....hell, it had a bigger error for this friday a few days ago.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...where did Sunday come from?

Hope that misses....I probably won't even have internet a lot of the time between now and then.

Sunday is a classic example of why some of those posts talking about punting the rest of February are so silly. Things can pop up on short notice....esp with the source region of the shortwave. Classic "Arctic screamer".

 

Anyways, not sold on that event yet, but it's now a threat to be tracked.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Mmm, the heat is on this GFS run ...it's just south.   In fact, the temperature contrast across the boundary is something really to marvel.  The cut off is roughly NYC... Mid Jersey could be 70 F while FIT up there along Rt 2 is icing, on this run, at 200 hours.

Therein is the rub, "200 hours" .. but, there is enough mass in that warm sector over the eastern U.S. to actually be more in agreement with the Euro than not (much to the chagrin of the cold side focused).  It just so happens to be (for now) the boundary is aligned along the L.I. Sound, but this run is actually warmer overall/integral. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm, the heat is on this GFS run ...it's just south.   In fact, the temperature contrast across the boundary is something really to marvel.  The cut off is roughly NYC... Mid Jersey could be 70 F while FIT up there along Rt 2 is icing, on this run, at 200 hours.

Therein is the rub, "200 hours" .. but, there is enough mass in that warm sector over the eastern U.S. to actually be more in agreement with the Euro than not (much to the chagrin of the cold side focused).  It just so happens to be (for now) the boundary is aligned along the L.I. Sound. 

Yeah the overall synoptic layout on a larger scale is pretty much in agreement....it's just a question of where the boundary sets up most of the time...could be a matter of 300-400 miles at this time range. Our geography and topography usually wants to place it a bit to our south....but obviously larger scale factors can overwhelm that. I do have in the back of my mind how often the Euro has overplayed the SE ridge at this medium range lead time this winter...we've seen it come in muted on numerous occasions once we got inside of D6.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the overall synoptic layout on a larger scale is pretty much in agreement....it's just a question of where the boundary sets up most of the time...could be a matter of 300-400 miles at this time range. Our geography and topography usually wants to place it a bit to our south....but obviously larger scale factors can overwhelm that. I do have in the back of my mind how often the Euro has overplayed the SE ridge at this medium range lead time this winter...we've seen it come in muted on numerous occasions once we got inside of D6.

Right ...it's why privately I suspect a colder tapestry some how some way next week... Don't know about an ice storm (jesus...) but, I've made my case, I fell, cogently regarding mid/extended range warm spells in models on a few occasions over the last week.

Not saying it won't be 70+ ... just that you get a vote of no confidence in that from me for the time being.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Especially when the Euro op is much warmer than the EPS and even the op is plainly evident how it you can see it adjusting 300 sw with the backdoor setup. You can be sure 00Z will start the colder trend

I like how you is more concerned about muting the torch next week over the system on sunday. 

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