February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Who is Euro?

your b**ch

[CT Rain]

41 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I don't know why people love this model. Sandy era sure but this model sucks since its upgrade a few years back. It literally sucks.

The warmth is not happening upper 60's up to NYC or so but no way we get that surge. Use some common sense guys! Models are just a tool not a forecast 

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I don't know why people love this model. Sandy era sure but this model sucks since its upgrade a few years back. It literally sucks.

The warmth is not happening upper 60's up to NYC or so but no way we get that surge. Use some common sense guys! Models are just a tool not a forecast 

The warmth is happening. No denying it.

It will be short lived though.

[Damage In Tolland]

A torch sandwich . Will BOS even need to shovel / plow?

 

[CoastalWx]

That reminds me of March.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not sure I see this ridge on the Euro as less amplified than the 00z version - 

That said, I still don't like going that aberrantly above climate that far out anyway...  who would?  The usual candidate reasons all apply ...etc etc.. 

Also, I don't think the Euro model is any better or worse, nor should it's reputation as a dependable source suffer demerits for having a big bulbous ridge beyond any given D 5 ...  standards in model performance might just be a little bit too high.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That reminds me of March.

not to rub it in ... but, I like the little face smack gesture at the end of the run (D 10) where after all that weird early warmth, it finally cuts it off with a cfropa?  But it only manages to return the 850mb levels to around +3 C ...  With a nice tepid high over a bear grand and sun getting slightly stronger, that's like d-slope dandy to 64 F, after a cold front, prior to March 1.   No consolation reach-around, eh? 

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure I see this ridge on the Euro as less amplified than the 00z version - 

That said, I still don't like going that aberrantly above climate that far out anyway...  who would?  The usual candidate reasons all apply ...etc etc.. 

Also, I don't think the Euro model is any better or worse, nor should it's reputation as a dependable source suffer demerits for having a big bulbous ridge beyond any given D 5 ...  standards in model performance might just be a little bit too high.

I checked back at 2/24/85 to see how similar the ridge is.  It’s not a whole lot different but it’s positioned more west during its highest amplitude which would suggest the warmest temps may occur in the OH Valley area because this region wouldn’t see deep enough SW flow.  I know NYC got to 75 that day.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to rub it in ... but, I like the little face smack gesture at the end of the run (D 10) where after all that weird early warmth, it finally cuts it off with a cfropa?  But it only manages to return the 850mb levels to around +3 C ...  With a nice tepid high over a bear grand and sun getting slightly stronger, that's like d-slope dandy to 64 F, after a cold front, prior to March 1.   No consolation reach-around, eh? 

 

It's definitely on it's own later next week (the euro op run) as the ensembles flatten that pattern out in the east. But, not before a very mild look for sure. I'll sell the euro op late next week, but it could be warm prior. Or perhaps the GEFS are right and things are shunted south with shallow, cold air.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I checked back at 2/24/85 to see how similar the ridge is.  It’s not a whole lot different but it’s positioned more west during its highest amplitude which would suggest the warmest temps may occur in the OH Valley area because this region wouldn’t see deep enough SW flow.  I know NYC got to 75 that day.  

heh, yeah... It's probably noise, as well... useless to iron out.   We'll know if the ridge is 'obviously' trending when it does... and I would be shocked if it did not. 

If that model actually nails that, ...7.5 days out... hands thrown.  We can't get storm to verify at that range, why the hell not a heat wave... haha

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I don't know why people love this model. Sandy era sure but this model sucks since its upgrade a few years back. It literally sucks.

The warmth is not happening upper 60's up to NYC or so but no way we get that surge. Use some common sense guys! Models are just a tool not a forecast 

On my Euro post I said  "if it ever came to fruition".  

[Ginx snewx]

EPS in the house for Sunday

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS in the house for Sunday

German steady for sunday

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS made a solid step to the Euro/GGEM for Sunday.

[ineedsnow]

18Z gfs with the bump north.  We snow!

[dryslot]

Nice shift to the north on the 18z GFS with the SLP, Hangs back a lot of moisture with a trough look ATM.

[CT Rain]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS made a solid step to the Euro/GGEM for Sunday.

Sure did.

Has that D4 inverted trough look that is always a good precursor to a solid bump north. 

[weathafella]

Who’d have thunk it 36 hours ago?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

Who’d have thunk it 36 hours ago?

Ant

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Who’d have thunk it 36 hours ago?

Snow88?

[Ginx snewx]

On 2/12/2018 at 11:19 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Well there's always the Germans straight from a Cannstatter Volksfest buzz run, to keep us entertained.

Jerry the Germans were on board 36 hrs ahead

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On college campuses it’s played anywhere nude or clothed 

I think you're thinking of hackey sack.  This is futsal

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jerry the Germans were on board 36 hrs ahead

German engineering 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

German engineering 

XXX

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I think you're thinking of hackey sack.  This is futsal

 

My brother plays D2 soccer. Wintertime training = futsol. Pretty intense and forces good foot skill development. 

We snow Sunday  

 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On college campuses it’s played anywhere nude or clothed 

 

14 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I think you're thinking of hackey sack.  This is futsal

 

And this is hackey sack

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol I know what it is. My daughters both do it to supplement soccer 

[wxeyeNH]

Meanwhile take a look at next week.  After I posted those crazy warm temps that the Euro advertised the 18Z GFS comes in much, much colder.  Even has a good snow/ice event up here.  If the trend continued maybe SNE could get into some frozen.  Big change but first things, first with this weekend. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Meanwhile take a look at next week.  After I posted those crazy warm temps that the Euro advertised the 18Z GFS comes in much, much colder.  Even has a good snow/ice event up here.  If the trend continued maybe SNE could get into some frozen.  Big change but first things, first with this weekend. 

18z GEFS are not warm next week....def a bit of a model battle with the EPS though which are warmer...but the EPS has been coming around a little flatter in recent runs.

 

 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GEFS are not warm next week....def a bit of a model battle with the EPS though which are warmer...but the EPS has been coming around a little flatter in recent runs.

 

 

We're definitely playing with the boundary next week on all the models. I could easily see some really huge temperature gradients (and forecasts busts) across SNE.