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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right. So the ‘best’ chances are in early March if it holds up. Certainly possible this major bigfoot episode comes and goes too...but my bet is it stays around.

Well yes, considering the bolded. But confidence is much lower. Anyway, after midweek next week, I think chances tilt in favor of wintry, for the remainder of the month....AN period appears confined to Monday - Thurs., and chances go up for backdooring over time... 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

While it’s good to certainly be level headed regarding that block, for once in years it basically has support from tropospheric and stratospheric nuances. Something we have not seen in years. I certainly weigh that aspect of it into this whole thing. Usually when models show blocking, it’s wiped out with the help of the black hole over Santa. Not this time.

As Will said, good to remain grounded. Nobody knows what it means..if anything. But as we head into March,I certainly want that on my side. That helps to keep things interesting when the PAC may not be favorable early on.  We shall see.

 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

While it’s good to certainly be level headed regarding that block, for once in years it basically has support from tropospheric and stratospheric nuances. Something we have not seen in years. I certainly weigh that aspect of it into this whole thing. Usually when models show blocking, it’s wiped out with the help of the black hole over Santa. Not this time.

As Will said, good to remain grounded. Nobody knows what it means..if anything. But as we head into March,I certainly want that on my side. That helps to keep things interesting when the PAC may not be favorable early on.  We shall see.

 

Yes, that is why I'm unzipped.  And not unusual to start east based and retrograde.  Also, bit blocking episodes of this nature usually last a few weeks.  Early spring cancel.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think John and HM and the like have a great grasp on what modeling is indicating and future ramifications to the pattern evolution. Unless all modeling fails we have a classic strong SSW underway

He always gets butt hurt and tries to impugn the efforts of others.

So tiresome.

John is not one of the people misusing the SSW concept.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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1 minute ago, Hazey said:

GGEM has had a rough winter. I'm still shoveling all the snow it said I was going to get. In fairness though, most models have had there struggles this season.

This weekend is definitely the type of pattern where models would struggle a lot...so I'll give it that. The shortwave in question is over far eastern Siberia right now and it crosses the Bering into AK and then screams down the east side of the ridge in British Columbia and into the Rockies and plains at lightning speed...GGEM has this shortwave more amplified in the plains while the other guidance does not. The arctic screamers are typically not forecasted very well. It's easier for satellite data to fill in the gaps over the mid-latitude Pacific ocean

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This weekend is definitely the type of pattern where models would struggle a lot...so I'll give it that. The shortwave in question is over far eastern Siberia right now and it crosses the Bering into AK and then screams down the east side of the ridge in British Columbia and into the Rockies and plains at lightning speed...GGEM has this shortwave more amplified in the plains while the other guidance does not. The arctic screamers are typically not forecasted very well. It's easier for satellite data to fill in the gaps over the mid-latitude Pacific ocean

I agree on these points. I wouldn't be as enthusiastic if the GEFS weren't so wet. The plunge in the AO is also well timed with this event, which should help this guy amp up more than the progressive solutions, such as the 12z GFS....

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This weekend is definitely the type of pattern where models would struggle a lot...so I'll give it that. The shortwave in question is over far eastern Siberia right now and it crosses the Bering into AK and then screams down the east side of the ridge in British Columbia and into the Rockies and plains at lightning speed...GGEM has this shortwave more amplified in the plains while the other guidance does not. The arctic screamers are typically not forecasted very well. It's easier for satellite data to fill in the gaps over the mid-latitude Pacific ocean

Yeah seems like a low probability event... the Euro Ensembles are all over the place but 20% of the members are pretty juicy with advisory snows. 

The GEFS has a similar spread with about 20% of the members with advisory snows.

Worth watching. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Seriously giving up 5 days out given how the models have been ?

I'm more worried about being too amped than suppression.

Hope that works out for you..

 

 

And I'm not aware that I "gave up"....just stated that a solution like the GGEM which literally shows 6-10" of snow as probably full of crap. Being skeptical of that doesn't mean I think we get nothing or that the solution is impossible.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hope that works out for you..

 

 

And I'm not aware that I "gave up"....just stated that a solution like the GGEM which literally shows 6-10" of snow as probably full of crap. Being skeptical of that doesn't mean I think we get nothing or that the solution is impossible.

Lol at Ant

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Well... there is the FAST 101 concept about modeling performance being inherently more prone to error during pattern changes ... Even if the nature/extent of the latter is as yet to be determined, we are definitely certain of at least one camp or the other is going to be in error ...and probably wrt to both this weekend and next week. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not for Sunday they do not.

Let him believe, hes trying at least.

51 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 At least his enthusiasm is a breath of fresh air amongst the doom and gloom crowd.

 Maybe we sneak in a little surprise this weekend, even an inch or two would be fine considering the pattern.   This will all be much clearer by tomorrow evening wrt to sampling etc. 

Theres an equilibrium between enthusiasm and mehism, he clearly knows only side of the spectrum...which is fine, I like it.

Theres also that equilibrium based mindsight that can swing to either side when it is warranted. That is I. Right now, I meh...until I see something other than the killer cmc/navgem/icon combo drop warning snows....nothing to get enthusiastic about. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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Posted
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let him believe, hes trying at least.

Theres an equilibrium between enthusiasm and mehism, he clearly knows only side of the spectrum...which is fine, I like it.

Theres also that equilibrium based mindsight that can swing to either side when it is warranted. That is I. Right now, I meh...until I see something other than the killer cmc/navgem/icon combo drop warning snows....nothing to get enthusiastic about. 

Must have been the in-house GEFS run off a Tandy.

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