February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[jbenedet]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The last 2 GFS Op and ENS runs from Day 12-26 show exactly the pattern I posted that I envisioned might occur several days ago.  A pretty solid -NAO but bad Pacific.  So basically an ugly ass blocked up pattern with not much cold air to work with which is how I think I phrased it 

There will be plenty of cold to work with in New England. The - AO/ -NAO is a powerful combo for Canadian air masses to predominate, despite the Pacific. We may not have the arctic but eastern Canada is plenty cold in late February to offset the crappy Pacific.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The last 2 GFS Op and ENS runs from Day 12-16 show exactly the pattern I posted that I envisioned might occur several days ago.  A pretty solid -NAO but bad Pacific.  So basically an ugly ass blocked up pattern with not much cold air to work with which is how I think I phrased it 

Thats how I see it. But careful, dont upset the atl blocking dreamers.

[jbenedet]

@Typhoon Tip

I agree on the phantom - NAO being a problem for long term guidance - but does this persistence give you pause with the ensembles showing one developing in 7-10 days? We're getting pretty close in now...imo...

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The last 2 GFS Op and ENS runs from Day 12-16 show exactly the pattern I posted that I envisioned might occur several days ago.  A pretty solid -NAO but bad Pacific.  So basically an ugly ass blocked up pattern with not much cold air to work with which is how I think I phrased it 

thing is we don't need much cold air , its certainly not a torch 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

There will be plenty of cold to work with in New England. The - AO/ -NAO is a powerful combo for Canadian air masses to predominate, despite the Pacific. We may not have the arctic but eastern Canada is plenty cold in late February to offset the crappy Pacific.

It could work, yes...but its not a balls to the wall epic march look some weenies think it will be, either. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

We might get that low to get squished by the high and drop a decent amount of snow this Saturday night. I’m confident that it’ll be cold enough to snow and it’ll stick but how much precipitation will we get. Hopefully more than forecasted and that high holds strong so we get some good evaporative and dynamic cooling from it. 

[MJO812]

AO is freefalling to -5

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

NAO going down to -2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It could work, yes...but its not a balls to the wall epic march look some weenies think it will be, either. 

To be clear, I've been focusing more on the last week of February and not so much March at this point.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It could work, yes...but its not a balls to the wall epic march look some weenies think it will be, either. 

Who said that or are you just making that up

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, jbenedet said:

To be clear, I've been focusing more on the last week of February and not so much March at this point.

You think it ‘settles’ this month? Usually a two week lag but maybe we can slip a bowler underneath it before it tanks....I gotchya.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Who said that or are you just making that up

Not you. You know your stuff. Its the dudes who think a Jan 96 event is coming soley off atl blocking.

[jbenedet]

24 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Does this EPS not suggest:

east based large -NAO drifting towards S Greenland by the end of the month

a 50-50 low

High pressure to our north over Ontario and Quebec, not over us

Yes a crappy Pacific in terms of a PNA ridge, but a SW low that would spit out energy towards the north and east, creating swfe and redevelopers that would tend to be suppressed a bit by the confluence over SE Canada?  Might be some slow swfes in that and some miller b redevelopers in that?  I mean it looks like a good pattern for us - what am I missing since I'm not qualified to properly evaluate it?

 

 

I don't think you're missing much here at all. Less is more in the long range. No need to over-analyze something when the details will change numerous times...

As was stated by CoastalWx (I think) - this setup favors the cut-off "bowling balls" that slide underneath versus SWFE's. I also agree that Miller B's are possible--Warm front front end thumpers to coastal red-development.

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There will be plenty of cold to work with in New England. The - AO/ -NAO is a powerful combo for Canadian air masses to predominate, despite the Pacific. We may not have the arctic but eastern Canada is plenty cold in late February to offset the crappy Pacific.

In late February a high over Ontario or Quebec, over thick snowpack, should feed plenty of cold to us, maybe not for the MA.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of wieners flying around here based on sonething that happened yet and also hasn’t happen in many years 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@Typhoon Tip

I agree on the phantom - NAO being a problem for long term guidance - but does this persistence give you pause with the ensembles showing one developing in 7-10 days? We're getting pretty close in now...imo...

it does...  I actually meant it when I said "suspect"   ...

I don't mean to say it won't happen ... I'm skeptical, and tried to encourage reasons why (I think...) we should all be.

But, if anyone wants to add veracious reasoning in either direction, no one is stopping them from doing so.  I will say, the -NAO that busted earlier in the winter ... I seem to recall it made it to a week out before the CPC spaghetti plot pulled the plug.  Gee, at what point is it proven statistically to increase in confidence interval?  ...no idea -

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of wieners flying around here based on sonething that happened yet and also hasn’t happen in many years 

Because it's coming

[jbenedet]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You think it ‘settles’ this month? Usually a two week lag but maybe we can slip a bowler underneath it before it tanks....I gotchya.

I think we want to see the -NAO firmly entrenched before we open the door for big cut-offs. That potential looks confined to last few days of the month (considering this month ends on the 28th). 

Excluding this weekend, backdooring and ice/rain potential looks like the theme up until then.

[MJO812]

CMC and German have a coastal storm for Sunday

German is weak but the CMC is stronger

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think we want to see the -NAO firmly entrenched before we open the door for big cut-offs. That potential looks confined to last few days of the month (considering this month ends on the 28th). 

Excluding this weekend, backdooring and ice/rain potential looks like the theme up until then.

Right. So the ‘best’ chances are in early March if it holds up. Certainly possible this major bigfoot episode comes and goes too...but my bet is it stays around.

[MJO812]

GFS is suppressed for this weekend's wave

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of wieners flying around here based on sonething that happened yet and also hasn’t happen in many years 

wut hasn't happened yet?, before you answer check your modeling initializations

[ORH_wxman]

Nobody should be calling for epic...that's pretty silly and any call on "Epic" winter returning is based on conjecture and not much empirical evidence....the NAO block could happen and it would def help keep some systems under us. But if the PAC goes to hell, then it mitigates some of the NAO advantage.

 

But lets not go hyperbolic in the opposite direction either...there would likely be some legit threats in that pattern. I'm not even sold on punting next week either...or even this weekend, though admittedly it's a low prob.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM refuses to give up for the weekend...it has basically a 8-12" even for SNE. Even advisory up to dendrite-land. It's prob not right, but guess we'll keep an eye if any other guidance tries to amp up.

 

GFS was just some light weenie snow. Maybe a coating to an inch in eastern areas.

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of wieners flying around here based on sonething that happened yet and also hasn’t happen in many years 

don't you do that all the time? 

the difference is that the ssw is real, and that major ssw's tend to lead to high latitude blocking.   If your pants aren't at least unzipped, then I think you aren't paying attention.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM refuses to give up for the weekend...it has basically a 8-12" even for SNE. Even advisory up to dendrite-land. It's prob not right, but guess we'll keep an eye if any other guidance tries to amp up.

 

GFS was just some light weenie snow. Maybe a coating to an inch in eastern areas.

GFS has the famouns INVT look, won't take much to haul that back west. Interested to see if Drunk uNK holds serve

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

wut hasn't happened yet?, before you answer check your modeling initializations

The strong Greenland block 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody should be calling for epic...that's pretty silly and any call on "Epic" winter returning is based on conjecture and not much empirical evidence....the NAO block could happen and it would def help keep some systems under us. But if the PAC goes to hell, then it mitigates some of the NAO advantage.

 

But lets not go hyperbolic in the opposite direction either...there would likely be some legit threats in that pattern. I'm not even sold on punting next week either...or even this weekend, though admittedly it's a low prob.

not sure who is claiming epic?  i'm just saying the setup on the eps looks great for the last week of Feb heading into March.  a solid NAO block, east-based and retrograding sw does not require a west coast ridge for us to have fun.  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS has the famouns INVT look, won't take much to haul that back west. Interested to see if Drunk uNK holds serve

If Ukie is on board at 12z, then I think we can take it a little more seriously. Would like to see the Euro show at least a bit of snow though.

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS has the famouns INVT look, won't take much to haul that back west. Interested to see if Drunk uNK holds serve

Was thinking the same thing. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

not sure who is claiming epic?  i'm just saying the setup on the eps looks great for the last week of Feb heading into March.  a solid NAO block, east-based and retrograding sw does not require a west coast ridge for us to have fun.  

Yeah it's not bad at all...I might quibble on the usage of "great" for the descriptor. The Pacific is pretty zonal, though not to the extent that we are flooding Canada with rotting marine air. It's a workable pattern for sure.