February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On 2/11/2018 at 12:38 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When Energy traders and $$ is involved does talk of a SSW that splits vortex enough to move commodities to reprice for colder future weather 

Yes. I once mapped Winter Gasoline and Heating Oil and Crude Oil versus temperatures and there was a correlation between warm/cold in the eastern 1/3 of the US in the cold season and trend of price. I think it was even true on a lag. I think it does move the market, maybe for a number of reason but because it correlates so strongly with temperatures below average in populated areas on a predictable time lag

[jbenedet]

I'm not even sure why we're looking at March already. Next week could turn out much better than feared if the - NAO and - - AO materializes as is currently being advertised. 

Lots of backdooring incoming with any threat of UL ridging overhead being produced by the crappy Pacific...

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't know if anyone picked up on this but the UK had a snowstorm on Sun early am day

I think this event is real. GFS is flatter than GEFS AND the NAVGEM. That's a big red flag imo, that it's OTL. 

[tunafish]

we pope

[MJO812]

John Homenuk ( Earthlight )

 

"We have a coupled troposphere and stratosphere now in the midst of a record breaking SSW. The easterly wind reversal at 10mb looks record breaking and so does the anomalous temperature rise. As a ridge anomaly shifts south from the Barents Sea and multiple +heat flux events continue into the polar stratosphere, the potential exists for an extremely anomalous high latitude blocking event on the Atlantic side of the high latitudes towards the end of the month.

 

 

 

The actual impacts to our area remain undetermined. I remain confident we will have opportunities for significant snow. But I think there is a larger, more broad pattern change occurring here, with a near-decadal flip back toward a Atlantic blocking pattern possible. We saw a similar event about 9 years ago. Watching the Pacific reshuffle has been impressive on the ensemble means as well.

 

 

 

To back up for a moment, I guess what I am saying is that despite the confidence in the Atlantic blocking, things are still evolving in the Pacific. I think we should be careful with that as we may be fighting a bit if a trough establishes in the Western US. But the size and scope of potential Atlantic blocking tells me we should have a few shots at big winter storms. "

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

The question is do we see Heather on the way in or on the way out.

snarf (RIP) doesn't care. he just wanted to see heather.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

snarf (RIP) doesn't care. he just wanted to see heather.

What a great night and creepy at the same time.  Hanging out in the Lobby with DT, Heather, Snarf.

[Weatherexpert]

10 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are you high or drunk?

Are you high or drunk? Smoking opiates drinking  wine?  The models are looking GOOD, look at the German, CMS; depends on your perspective but I am certainly having a positive perspective! I can see your viewpoint though, all I can say is you never know! Mr. Snow storm may appear at any time!

[Typhoon Tip]

why is everything always "record breaking"

 

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

snarf (RIP) doesn't care. he just wanted to see heather.

Lol yea man, I had my hands full that night, thought DT was going to drop him

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

why is everything always "record breaking"

 

It sounds more exciting that way....better to hyperbolize everything for the instant gratification regardless of whether its true or not.

[Ginx snewx]

49 minutes ago, tunafish said:

we pope

Espritus santus un padre santus

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It sounds more exciting that way....better to hyperbolize everything for the instant gratification regardless of whether its true or not.

John has shown the charts and graphs that indicate it is indeed record breaking ( for what records exist)

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It sounds more exciting that way....better to hyperbolize everything for the instant gratification regardless of whether its true or not.

Not to drop a dime, but man 01

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

John has shown the charts and graphs that indicate it is indeed record breaking ( for what records exist)

I was merely talking generically...we see it a lot. Wasn't necessarily commenting on that specific example...I probably should have made that clear.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Espritus santus un padre santus

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was merely talking generically...we see it a lot. Wasn't necessarily commenting on that specific example...I probably should have made that clear.

for sure

[Typhoon Tip]

nothing is record breaking until its happened... 

from what I can tell, this is all just based upon modeling -- unless someone has empirically measured things, then okay -

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nothing is record breaking until its happened... 

from what I can tell, this is all just based upon modeling -- unless someone has empirically measured things, then okay -

when one uses "looks" and "potential" it kind of gives it away what they are basing their thoughts on

[ORH_wxman]

Anyways...I think there is some evidence that we could get a system this weekend...albeit low probability. I'd still favor nothing at this point...esp north of the south coast.

 

Beyond that, we can see some modeling difficulty with the gradient and high pressure to the north. It wouldn't be shocking if we're talking wintry outcomes...esp for NNE. Fine line between icing (or even snow) and literally 60F.

 

Further out, I do like the NAO look....it will be a completely different feel to the pattern than what we've bene experiencing if it comes to pass.

[Typhoon Tip]

In any case ... I'm not sure I'm seeing/reading much that indicates people know what to do with this SSW stuff, but have learned just enough to run with it... 

I still have not read anyone in the Tweet ambiance that's giddy and reliant on that factor as an implicitly intoned winter savior ... actually write words that sound like, ' we have to see if this event down-wells in the atmosphere or if it is just random warming nodal noise that suspends before dissipating..' 

That key distinction is heavily papered... The downward propagating mass of warmer air rattling around in the ambient PV ... eventually reaches the tropopausal heights after nearly a two week migration at that ... --> increasing stability in the domain then causes the PV to breakdown... Blocking ensues as jet arcs then establish farther south ...carrying with them, cold and storm zones associated with the -AO.  All of which means the correlation on the -AO in the troposphere and it's consequential phenomenon has a lag on the order of three weeks.

That's the link/scienced causal chain of events...  I'm not sensing folks either know this or are being responsible about whatever is going on presently.  We'll see...  

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

In any case ... I'm not sure I'm seeing/reading much that indicates people know what to do with this SSW stuff, but have learned just enough to run with it... 

I still have not read anyone in the Tweet ambiance that's giddy and reliant on that factor as an implicitly intoned winter savior ... actually write words that sound like, ' we have to see if this event down-wells in the atmosphere or if it is just random warming nodal noise that suspends before dissipating..' 

That key distinction is heavily papered... The downward propagating mass of warmer air rattling around in the ambient PV ... eventually reaches the tropopausal heights after nearly a two week migration at that ... --> increasing stability in the domain then causes the PV to breakdown... Blocking ensues as jet arcs then establish farther south ...carrying with them, cold and storm zones associated with the -AO.  All of which means the correlation on the -AO in the troposphere and it's consequential phenomenon has a lag on the order of three weeks.

That's the link/scienced causal chain of events...  I'm not sensing folks either know this or are being responsible about whatever is going on presently.  We'll see...  

I think John and HM and the like have a great grasp on what modeling is indicating and future ramifications to the pattern evolution. Unless all modeling fails we have a classic strong SSW underway

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

when one uses "looks" and "potential" it kind of gives it away what they are basing their thoughts on

To which you would have a point if the poster did not post this,

"We have a coupled troposphere and stratosphere now in the midst of a record breaking SSW...." 

which did not qualify like you suggested.   Face it, people bandy about in hyperbole too often.  They get called out, and then you - for some reason - go out of your way to defend.  Not sure why you do that... but ...have a good one 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

47 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said:

Are you high or drunk? Smoking opiates drinking  wine?  The models are looking GOOD, look at the German, CMS; depends on your perspective but I am certainly having a positive perspective! I can see your viewpoint though, all I can say is you never know! Mr. Snow storm may appear at any time!

Call a shrink, asap. cmc and german....ugh.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I'm not even sure why we're looking at March already. Next week could turn out much better than feared if the - NAO and - - AO materializes as is currently being advertised. 

Lots of backdooring incoming with any threat of UL ridging overhead being produced by the crappy Pacific...

Does this EPS not suggest:

east based large -NAO drifting towards S Greenland by the end of the month

a 50-50 low

High pressure to our north over Ontario and Quebec, not over us

Yes a crappy Pacific in terms of a PNA ridge, but a SW low that would spit out energy towards the north and east, creating swfe and redevelopers that would tend to be suppressed a bit by the confluence over SE Canada?  Might be some slow swfes in that and some miller b redevelopers in that?  I mean it looks like a good pattern for us - what am I missing since I'm not qualified to properly evaluate it?

 

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think John and HM and the like have a great grasp on what modeling is indicating and future ramifications to the pattern evolution. Unless all modeling fails we have a classic strong SSW underway

I don’t think that’s the question. I think as usual we wonder what it means for our backyards. I like how John acknowledged the not so wonderful Pacific, but that look can spit out bowling balls from the SW US. What we don’t want is March 2010 when Canada was void  of any cold.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I made a point before that the Stratosphere warming seems made like someone took flat grid and made a mountain. The most impressive SD anomaly with coming 10mb heights is negative above the Pacific Ocean

Models have +330 anomaly mean Greenland 500mb at 300-384hr. I've seen 3-4 decent warmings and same long term look on models everytime. cannot remember if they verified

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways...I think there is some evidence that we could get a system this weekend...albeit low probability. I'd still favor nothing at this point...esp north of the south coast.

 

Beyond that, we can see some modeling difficulty with the gradient and high pressure to the north. It wouldn't be shocking if we're talking wintry outcomes...esp for NNE. Fine line between icing (or even snow) and literally 60F.

 

Further out, I do like the NAO look....it will be a completely different feel to the pattern than what we've bene experiencing if it comes to pass.

I realize you didn't ask but ... I don't.  My reason(s) are really probably not that convincing to others, but it's just because I don't sense much going on et al to convince me that persistence has changed wrt to NAO handling/blocking.  This is ... a few years at this point, if not a decade or more now, where that particular domain space is pretty much not forecastable - if that's a word.

Also, I don't trust the modeling packages/groupings wrt the placement of -NAO related blocking in either space or time, even in the off chance this is a rare time in which they are on to something with it actually occurring.  Earlier this winter, there was a -NAO bust ... Does anyone recall? Couldn't even really get that one to materialize, making the placement in space and time moot.  The winter flow characteristic still hasn't really moved/modulated much away from the same sore of styling (if you will...); it may be logical to assume the NAO is at similar risk of busting; only because that -NAO also was modeled to set in after a period of intents vortex in Canada and associated velocity saturation everywhere.   

Also, I really have read that Nina's tend to feature earlier springs... February half through and generating a dreamy-eye -NAO that "saves March" ...that's not really doing that former. 

It just ...I dunno... "seems" suspect to me.  The upshot is that all this means the NAO has just about as much chance of happening as doesn't.  

Then we gotta get into even if it does, it may be east based.. The D10-12 free products at PSU actually depict that... 

[SnowGoose69]

The last 2 GFS Op and ENS runs from Day 12-16 show exactly the pattern I posted that I envisioned might occur several days ago.  A pretty solid -NAO but bad Pacific.  So basically an ugly ass blocked up pattern with not much cold air to work with which is how I think I phrased it 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The last 2 GFS Op and ENS runs from Day 12-16 show exactly the pattern I posted that I envisioned might occur several days ago.  A pretty solid -NAO but bad Pacific.  So basically an ugly ass blocked up pattern with not much cold air to work with which is how I think I phrased it 

I didn't see your post - apologies... - but it "sounds" like you mentioned what I just intimated about, 'even if the NAO materializes, idiosyncrasies in it's placement are just as important'.