February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Sugarloaf1989]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. Well its a big concern and worry for the mobilers and skiers is all 

There's 3 months of skiing yet to be done, the season is nowhere near over.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a big snow to ice event in the interior on Mar 13-14...it dumped a crap ton of snow in NH and ME....Tamarack loves to talk about that one because I think it was his peak snow depth. Frigid airmass leading into it.

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Reminds me a bit of what happened on the south shore prior to flipping to all snow in 97.

 

METAR KNZW 292000Z 04024G34KT 1/2SM -TSSNPL FG OVC003 01/00 A2907 RMK TB S MOVG N /CNL LGTIC SLP845 T00060000

wasn't living here then but  N Foster COOP had 17, must have been meat because 9 remained on the ground 4-2

[ORH_wxman]

EPS def drinking the NAO Kool-Aid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We kool aid.

We March.

 

[CapturedNature]

There was a snowstorm at the end of March 1984.  April 1982 had a good storm....I always remember that one.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def drinking the NAO Kool-Aid.

No kidding. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

No kidding. 

Some folks are going to have an aneurysm. 

Just let it play out and have faith.

[Angus]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a big snow to ice event in the interior on Mar 13-14...it dumped a crap ton of snow in NH and ME....Tamarack loves to talk about that one because I think it was his peak snow depth. Frigid airmass leading into it.

Only day that classes were cancelled in four winters in C. Maine. Spring skiing at Sugarloaf was epic.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

somewhere in Uganda, Ray is high fiving a mango tree that he was right. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

somewhere in Uganda, Ray is high fiving a mango tree that he was right. 

Nah...because of one opportune ensemble suite amidst a sea of discontinuity? That would be hypocritical.

I'll let the dust settle...fly out at 1022.

Probably be blogging from 10k above the Atlantic tonight

 

[wxeyeNH]

21 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Any chance of actual 80s?

Ha....not in New Hampshire.  The highest ever recorded in February is 72F.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...cause one more deterministic solution in a sea of discontinuity? That would be hypocritical.

I'll let the dust settle...fly out at 1022.

Probably be blogging from 10k above the Atlantic tonight

 

Tell us how the NAO region looks from your seat.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...because of one opportune ensemble suite amidst a sea of discontinuity? That would be hypocritical.

I'll let the dust settle...fly out at 1022.

Probably be blogging from 10k above the Atlantic tonight

 

Do me a favor. Eat some Mexican tonight at the airport. Fart your way over the Nat Tracks and let the Brewer-Dobson circulation take the methane into the N pole. That will kick start the SSW. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM ensembles went completely wild for the -NAO. All 3 major ensembles have it....to varying degrees.

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...because of one opportune ensemble suite amidst a sea of discontinuity? That would be hypocritical.

I'll let the dust settle...fly out at 1022.

Probably be blogging from 10k above the Atlantic tonight

 

Hopefully a bit higher than that!

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...because of one opportune ensemble suite amidst a sea of discontinuity? That would be hypocritical.

I'll let the dust settle...fly out at 1022.

Probably be blogging from 10k above the Atlantic tonight

 

Which part of Uganda are you going to? I am sure you have read all the travel precautions

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM ensembles went completely wild for the -NAO. All 3 major ensembles have it....to varying degrees.

GGEM is pretty east based, EPS middle, GEFS west, sensible weather impacts will follow

[Damage In Tolland]

Ive never wanted to be more wrong than this call.Hopefully the snowless rest of Feb blows up in my face. 

I will say though an east based nao isn’t gonna help us much other than backdoors

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ive never wanted to be more wrong than this call.Hopefully the snowless rest of Feb blows up in my face. 

I will say though an east based nao isn’t gonna help us much other than backdoors

Nao is most overrated indicator north of mass pike

[MJO812]

Eps has the NAO and AO tanking by the 17th.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nao is most overrated indicator north of mass pike

It matters when a SE ridge is killing you....biggest correlation to a SE ridge? The NAO.

[dendrite]

31 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ha....not in New Hampshire.  The highest ever recorded in February is 72F.   

Yeah...last year was CON’s all time Feb record high of 69F. We’ve been managing bigger heat earlier in the past decade though.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It matters when a SE ridge is killing you....biggest correlation to a SE ridge? The NAO.

Yeah and guess what got squashed when the EPS pumped up the -NAO? SE ridge. 

Hopefully this continues the trend. Finally something encouraging.

[Typhoon Tip]

Careful there, though... 

You can drive a west-based -NAO over top of a SE ridge .. The ridge only appears gone but in reality it is merely suppressed .. which is bad.  That's a large scale interference pattern (negative) and has so much velocity the torque budget has nothing left for S/W that end lost in the maelstrom..  

The SE ridge isnt' really dependent on the NAO phases... The two can coexist.  

What you really want is a relaxed flow/-NAO west based...and I'd even qualify that further by suggesting that -NAO not be deeply negative either.  

Buuut, we're also talking idealized states... I guess if you got a long way to go, the best start is any pathway that doesn't include 80 F in Febr  - agreed... heh

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Careful there, though... 

You can drive a west-based -NAO over top of a SE ridge .. The ridge only appears gone but in reality it is merely suppressed .. which is bad.  That's a large scale interference pattern (negative) and has so much velocity the torque budget has nothing left for S/W that end lost in the maelstrom..  

The SE ridge isnt' really dependent on the NAO phases... The two can coexist.  

Well instead of something cutting into Montreal, you help force something weak under SNE. However, I think the general pattern is to have less of a SE ridge anyways, independent of the NAO state as we head later this month and into March.

[weathafella]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...because of one opportune ensemble suite amidst a sea of discontinuity? That would be hypocritical.

I'll let the dust settle...fly out at 1022.

Probably be blogging from 10k above the Atlantic tonight

 

Wait to 38,000.  Hold on tight for the ICTZ. Been there-shake rattle and roll!

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well instead of something cutting into Montreal, you help force something weak under SNE. However, I think the general pattern is to have less of a SE ridge anyways, independent of the NAO state as we head later this month and into March.

yeah I added to that statement I made, which more than less echoed that idea...  

[Ginx snewx]

I think this whole slew of tweets is directed at some in here.

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/963152462977708033

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...because of one opportune ensemble suite amidst a sea of discontinuity? That would be hypocritical.

I'll let the dust settle...fly out at 1022.

Probably be blogging from 10k above the Atlantic tonight

 

Safe travels, bud.  The first leg of a huge journey

[Damage In Tolland]

Earthlight hasn’t visited this board in years