February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said:

Based on long range models and my weenie intuition, I'm putting a fork in this winter. Any guesses to where it ends up on the list of warmest? (or is it not close?)

Winter isn't even close to being over especially in your neck of the woods

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter isn't even close to being over especially in your neck of the woods

Have you seen the EPS/Euro for late February, one of the most powerful ridges right over us I've seen yet and the Euro keeps trending stronger.

That's record breaking warmth as shown.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter isn't even close to being over especially in your neck of the woods

There is no sign of a sustained period. so yea it’s almost over from that standpoint. we can obv get an event until April by sheer luck, hurray.

[LurkerBoy]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow look at that ridge directly over us on the EPS/Euro, incredible warmth if that verifies. 70s and 80s.

True? 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said:

True? 

d9-10 so buyer beware. It's very warm overall, but details TBD.

[codfishsnowman]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

d9-10 so buyer beware. It's very warm overall, but details TBD.

even 2006 threw us a bone in March and it was in the low 70s a few days prior

[Damage In Tolland]

Ginx has stopped posting. If he doesn’t return winter is def over 

[codfishsnowman]

my march prediction 

one or two good coastals and a few frigid days (10s-low20s his/0-10 lows,windy)

early march may still be torched 

mid-late month colder

we are not gonna furnace straight through and a lot of you are well above normal or normal for snow already anyways

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx has stopped posting. If he doesn’t return winter is def over 

He went outside with his winter weenie and saw no shadow.

[WeatherFeen2000]

WINTER isn’t over come on you  

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He went outside with his winter weenie and saw no shadow.

His outtie became an innie thus no shadow.

[jbenedet]

Color me skeptical on the near record breaking warmth next week. The teleconnections look much better than their current state by the end of the week. I'm waiting to see what the long range looks like after the 16th when we develop a +PNA -AO again, before speculating on the pattern beyond that point.

Since late January we've seen a tendency of the EURO/EPS and even the GFS/GEFS --but to a lesser degree-- to over-suppress the PNA ridge and overdue ridging over the eastern CONUS. To an extent this looks like history may be repeating itself...Granted I'm not expecting a good winter pattern by any stretch, but, at this point, seasonable looks more likely than near record warmth next week....

In the near term I still think Friday has a good shot at developing into a modest to moderate winter event for a chunk of the sub-forum.

[CoastalWx]

It's amazing how weenie-ish the GEFS always are. They just cannot handle -PNA patterns.

[CoastalWx]

We are having quite the westerly wind burst right now moving east.

 

 

 

Also watch these warmer sub surface waters as these winds move east. Maybe this is the beginning of the end for Nina?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx has stopped posting. If he doesn’t return winter is def over 

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's amazing how weenie-ish the GEFS always are. They just cannot handle -PNA patterns.

Looks like a brief cold shot this weekend but than its right back to the torch pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks like a brief cold shot this weekend but than its right back to the torch pattern.

It's AN for the next couple of weeks i think. At some point that ridge will relax. I'm coming around a bit to more interesting wx in March, but obviously that is rather far out. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's AN for the next couple of weeks i think. At some point that ridge will relax. I'm coming around a bit to more interesting wx in March, but obviously that is rather far out. 

Yup.  Roll the dice come March 1st  but at this point the rest of February looks done imo as far as snow chances go in SNE.  NNE may be ok.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

my march prediction 

one or two good coastals and a few frigid days (10s-low20s his/0-10 lows,windy)

early march may still be torched 

mid-late month colder

we are not gonna furnace straight through and a lot of you are well above normal or normal for snow already anyways

Most of us will be below normal on snowfall shortly...in fact, I think I'm already slipping below normal and we will be solidly below normal 10 days from now.

Gonna need a big March unless we can squeeze in a good storm in late February first.

[SnowHole413]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of us will be below normal on snowfall shortly...in fact, I think I'm already slipping below normal and we will be solidly below normal 10 days from now.

Gonna need a big March unless we can squeeze in a good storm in late February first.

Yeah I,m only at 31.25 inches. Only about 53% of my average. At this time last year I was at 46 inches.

I'm still optimistic I can hit 50 inches (still below average) if we have a good bomb and a little event in March.

[ORH_wxman]

I'd prob be a little careful too in biting on the magnitude of the SE ridge on the EPS/GEFS around D8-12. Pretty big EPO ridge is pumping up during that time and guidance often underestimates the downstream impact on heights in eastern Canada. It's where we see those cutters sometimes turn into SWFEs.  

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx has stopped posting. If he doesn’t return winter is def over 

He will be back for Morch ski trip talk.  It won't matter what is happening in SNE, it will be all about the base at Sunday, with photos of him and TB under "bluebird" skies. cutting through, what will probably be late Spring like conditions.    

[Cobalt]

I know I'm coming from the Mid Atlantic forum, but I was curios what you folks thought of the fact that the NAO has only been negative so far during the first 5 days of met winter, and has been positive or at least neutral ever since. Would it make sense to believe that the NAO would go negative as it did last March due to purely time? Even awful winters such as 11-12 had a -NAO on at least 15 separate days throughout the whole winter. Not looking for reasons to be optimistic, just curious what you guys think. Cheers!

[J Paul Gordon]

Wow! 70's and low 80's next week!!!! Where? In Georgia? 

How about 50's (with a few isolated low 60's in especially favored areas)? Or, 40's and low 50's? Or, things change as we get closer to the apocalypse? Or, does it really matter anyhow?

If winter is over (many doubts about that) then let's embrace spring. This one has hardly been a total fail.

[J Paul Gordon]

14 hours ago, Hazey said:

Yeah it was great here. Lots of temps in the 60's with several days in the 70's and high of 85. Burnt my nape that month. That is how you end a crappy winter with style.

85F? Wow, nobody got that warm here. The stretch of 70 days was amazing, though.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

85F? Wow, nobody got that warm here. The stretch of 70 days was amazing, though.

CON had 5 straight days of 80+ with a max of 84F. LEB and MHT hit 85F.

[CapturedNature]

8 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

85F? Wow, nobody got that warm here. The stretch of 70 days was amazing, though.

In 2012 I had a 6 day stretch where the high averaged 77° with a maximum of 81° on 3/22/2012.

FWIW, we did snow after that.  I'm sure there were some posters calling for 80s every day after that but that obviously didn't work out too well.

[tunafish]

Will be installing tonight.  Never too early tbh.

[J Paul Gordon]

8 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

In 2012 I had a 6 day stretch where the high averaged 77° with a maximum of 81° on 3/22/2012.

FWIW, we did snow after that.  I'm sure there were some posters calling for 80s every day after that but that obviously didn't work out too well.

Knew it was warm but wasn't aware of the 80 plus streak. Would be amazing to have it happen in February! If we can't break a snow record, why not a heat record?

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

He will be back for Morch ski trip talk.  It won't matter what is happening in SNE, it will be all about the base at Sunday, with photos of him and TB under "bluebird" skies. cutting through, what will probably be late Spring like conditions.    

If you can predict what NNE will be like in March you should get a job working for Ski Resorts, silly boy, silly post