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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

I recall a lot of talk back in December (if not earlier) about mid January through most of February being quite warm. Seems to have been a correct prediction. Now, will the general prediction that March might see the return of serious winter weather pan out? We shall see. Came to Maine to snowshoe in time for the warm up. We seem to have a knack for coming up here on the eve of a thaw! But with so much else to do, I'm not complaining. 

Let's hope March brings us some cold and snow. If not, I guess it not so big a deal when you get to be my age. I used to storm about and whine along with the best of them and it never once changed a damn thing. Perhaps there should be a twelve step program for weather weenies. Wouldn't hurt to recite the serenity prayer, at any rate.

 

Seems must be deceiving then because the opposite is true...

So far, January is essentially within decimals of dead nuts normal at both ORH and HFD, and so far the first 10 days of February are -2 at both..

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems must be deceiving then because the opposite is true...

So far, January is essentially within decimals of dead nuts normal at both ORH and HFD, and so far the first 10 days of February are -2 at both..

 

The second half of January was mild.

February has sucked, regardless, and those meager negative anomalies will be short lived.

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

Posted
Posted

As is the science, none of us can be certain how the last week of February and all of March will evolve...relative to sensible weather.  Hence,  one of the main reasons many of us are drawn to this dynamic and fluid field of wonderment and exploration.  

That said, if SNE is to see another widespread significant event (snowfall totals >/= 12"), I'm inclined to look towards the first two weeks of March, given the current state of the atmosphere and likely delayed effects of any subsequent changes, therein.         

Although outside of my designated subforum, I'm most interested in SNE weather for blizzard and/or major snowstorm potential.  Even so, don't post much winter weather analysis, here, given that so many of you are so well-versed in the science and the various teleconnections that influence the large-scale pattern.

Without parroting the same general rationale for the aforementioned prognostication, I'll add that many of SNE's most significant storms occurred after the conclusion of meteorological winter (i.e. February 28/29).  The baroclinic zone is often enhanced by the clashing air masses coinciding with the forthcoming change in seasons.  Thus, I still hold out hope for one last significant/major event through at least the first 2 weeks of March.  

In short, winter isn't over, yet, nor do I expect SNE to escape without one last widespread "warning" event (no less than 50% probability).  

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10 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

As is the science, none of us can be certain how the last week of February and all of March will evolve...relative to sensible weather.  Hence,  one of the main reasons many of us are drawn to this dynamic and fluid field of wonderment and exploration.  

That said, if SNE is to see another widespread significant event (snowfall totals >/= 12"), I'm inclined to look towards the first two weeks of March, given the current state of the atmosphere and likely delayed effects of any subsequent changes, therein.         

Although outside of my designated subforum, I'm most interested in SNE weather for blizzard and/or major snowstorm potential.  Even so, don't post much winter weather analysis, here, given that so many of you are so well-versed in the science and the various teleconnections that influence the large-scale pattern. 

Without parroting the same general rationale for the aforementioned prognostication, I'll add that many of SNE's most significant storms occurred after the conclusion of meteorological winter (i.e. February 28/29).  The baroclinic zone is often enhanced by the clashing air masses coinciding with the forthcoming change in seasons.  Thus, I still hold out hope for one last significant/major event through at least the first 2 weeks of March.  

In short, winter isn't over, yet, nor do I expect SNE to escape without one last widespread "warning" event (no less than 50% probability).  

Amen regarding the first two weeks of March.

Wavelengths shorten, too...so we are more prone to slow moving cut-offs.

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