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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted

Are there any snowfall metrics surrounding a Neg AO, NAO, PNA and Neutral EPO pattern? To me this seems to indicate a massive trough over the US. 

GEFS and EPS seem to be in agreement with the above setup, albeit in varied levels.

I still find it almost impossible to believe we go from Jan 5 through March 30 without a single moderate or heavy event.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The SSW is just getting underway, so I'm not sure how that is voodoo, as if it should have impacted the MAP before it manifested.

While it is true that not all SSW and NAOs are as impactful ad others, I don't think it's fair to call it voodoo.

 

Agree. Back in mid January, we thought there would be a protracted break and most were interested in the pattern, and now it's reversed going forward. I am confident the ideas postulated are correct, but we'll see. It's going to take at least 10-14 days to reshuffle hemispherically. But one can see the resultant NAO/AO decline on the latter part of the EPS. This is a legitimate response to the downwelling, as well as GWO and MJO alterations.

Yes, that brings us to about 3 weeks of conducive snowfall climatology for many, but all that is really needed is one good event or two to push totals near normal for most on the coast (speaking NYC centric).

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Peoples thoughts have been well postulated and I don't disagree at all.  Models are seeing the beginnings of the downwelling so they may lag behind somewhat in output.  Right now all we can do is monitor the progression and see if trends become more positive for wintry events.

The weeklies really support what I posted two days ago.  A negative NAO but a lousy Pacific.  It’s not extraordinarily lousy in that there is no pronounced massive GOA but it’s bad enough verbatim that nobody South of 40N is going to easily see a snow event unless you get some sort of massive closed off type system.  Of course it could be underestimating the impacts of the SSW

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Peoples thoughts have been well postulated and I don't disagree at all.  Models are seeing the beginnings of the downwelling so they may lag behind somewhat in output.  Right now all we can do is monitor the progression and see if trends become more positive for wintry events.

Yea, modeling may very well do a 180, like it did when the rug got pulled out for early Feb....so I wouldn't lose sleep over long range guidance.

TBH....I haven't used long range modeling to formulate my ideas once all season....but rather to validate them. ..it either bolsters or decreases confidence, but it's just a tool.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The weeklies really support what I posted two days ago.  A negative NAO but a lousy Pacific.  It’s not extraordinarily lousy in that there is no pronounced massive GOA but it’s bad enough verbatim that nobody South of 40N is going to easily see a snow event unless you get some sort of massive closed off type system.  Of course it could be underestimating the impacts of the SSW

Yeah id like to give the SSW time to impact the long range modeling going forward.  You may see higher than usual uncertainty as everything gets sorted out. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, modeling may very well do a 180, like it did when the rug got pulled out for early Feb....so I wouldn't lose sleep over long range guidance.

TBH....I haven't used long range modeling to formulate my ideas once all season....but rather to validate them. ..it either bolsters or decreases confidence, but it's just a tool.

This!

 

Everybody jumped off the train once the rug got pulled out, and that happened fast.  It can just as quickly go the other way too.  Back in Jan 15 everybody like you said had their sights set as well...and it wasn't looking good.  And even in 13 it wasn't all too good either before the Blizzard and the March events...so we have been here before for sure.  Good Post.

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Didn't Jan '11 dump 40 on the Berks? Like up around Savoy?

Looks like 40.5".   35" from synoptic and 5" Upslope.  Terrain enhanced both ways

Considerable terrain enhancement during the main storm occurred in the higher elevations of Berkshire and Bennington counties to push snow totals at our two high elevation WxNet 6 spotters sites on top of Woodford, MT, VT in Bennington County to 35.0" and to 40.5" on top of the mountain in Savoy, MA, Berkshire County, both 2000' + elevation locations. In Woodford, approximately 25" of snow fell from the main storm, with approximately 35" of snow @ Savoy, MA. The additional accumulations at these locations came from upslope induced snowfall which continued well into Wednesday night and early Thursday morning the 13th, after the main storm had moved east.

 

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

Lol everybody saying it melts in march in 3 days....it's been doing that all winter so you all should be used to it in SNE this year.  And who cares if it melts soon...it's still a hoot to have a big daddy banging on your door no matter which winter month...I'll take a big one in March any day, and so would all you saying otherwise.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol everybody saying it melts in march in 3 days....it's been doing that all winter so you all should be used to it in SNE this year.  And who cares if it melts soon...it's still a hoot to have a big daddy banging on your door no matter which winter month...I'll take a big one in March any day, and so would all you saying otherwise.

You like big daddys banging on your back door ey....

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQoEyRH2aNMALWrwxpVAhJ

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Ray, you’ve been honorable about analysis and what went wrong,  But I seem to recall you thInking the Big EPO ridge would eventually come back.  All guidance had this and you may have wanted to delay it but the guidance completed failed.  You did suggest nao help and that looks like it may come true but the EPO part has been a dud.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ray, you’ve been honorable about analysis and what went wrong,  But I seem to recall you thInking the Big EPO ridge would eventually come back.  All guidance had this and you may have wanted to delay it but the guidance completed failed.  You did suggest nao help and that looks like it may come true but the EPO part has been a dud.

So far, yea...I wasn't avoiding anything...I do the verification in the spring.

I did predict a slightly positive D-M EPO in the mean, though.

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