February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So Jerry, about 10 days ago you told me I’d probably be proven wrong with my idea that the coldest weather of the winter was behind us....you still feeling that way??  I think the cold we had in late December and early January was the peak as far as cold goes...we aren’t seeing that again this year imo. 

To be fair the argument no longer holds since the depicted pattern failed.  So yes you’re right in a technicality but I think had that pattern ensued I may have been.  I don’t think you were arguing that the pattern would be junk like now right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So Jerry, about 10 days ago you told me I’d probably be proven wrong with my idea that the coldest weather of the winter was behind us....you still feeling that way??  I think the cold we had in late December and early January was the peak as far as cold goes...we aren’t seeing that again this year imo. 

Ouch lol

Yea, we won that.

I don't know about you, but I didn't think the pattern would materialize. 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

To be fair the argument no longer holds since the depicted pattern failed.  So yes you’re right in a technicality but I think had that pattern ensued I may have been.  I don’t think you were arguing that the pattern would be junk like now right?

No, I didn’t expect the pattern to be junk..but I was being cautious not to get to excited..while I did like what modeling was showing for a while there, I was keeping  my expectations tempered. And Thats why I felt/said that we wouldn’t repeat the cold to the magnitude of late December/early January. 

 

But your point is well taken...and I wish it did ensue...to see if the cold would have been as severe as it was earlier. I still don’t think it would have...but we’ll never know lol. 

 

Lets hope we can have a strong finish. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looking good for another round of NNE snows.  It has been quite the last 7-10 days between a few synoptic events and some squalls, etc. 

Measured 27" at Stowe in the past week... Killington with 36" as S/C VT has been in the jackpot (aside from Jay Peak which bucks that trend with 47" this week).

Euro is similar to the American guidance with a stripe of 3-6" across NNE.  Long duration WAA snows basically.

GFS gone wild at 18z for sure.

NAM

Congrats on the 6 to 12

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ouch lol

Yea, we won that.

I don't know about you, but I didn't think the pattern would materialize. 

 

Weeklies look excellent in the NAO/AO domains, and that's all that matters to me. Even given a less than ideal Pacific, heights should be more suppressed over NE US. I also think the p8 MJO will yield a bit better result in terms of those upstream W USA heights. Due partially to the fact that this MJO pulse is extremely amplified/coherent and protracted duration in phase 7, I think there will be at least a several day lag as far as downstream NPAC alterations post propagation into p8. Thus, that may allow some vestiges of lower geopotential heights in the NW US in the Feb 17-21 period, before we begin shifting significantly thereafter. The GWO/AAM looks much more auspicious to me once beyond D10, as FT/MT will be decreasing coupled w/ initiation of -AAM poleward propagation.

I still like Feb 23-Mar 10 approximately. I think there will be a  6-10" event minimum in that period, somewhere along I-95.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Weeklies look excellent in the NAO/AO domains, and that's all that matters to me. Even given a less than ideal Pacific, heights should be more suppressed over NE US. I also think the p8 MJO will yield a bit better result in terms of those upstream W USA heights. Due partially to the fact that this MJO pulse is extremely amplified/coherent and protracted duration in phase 7, I think there will be at least a several day lag as far as downstream NPAC alterations post propagation into p8. Thus, that may allow some vestiges of lower geopotential heights in the NW US in the Feb 17-21 period, before we begin shifting significantly thereafter. The GWO/AAM looks much more auspicious to me once beyond D10, as FT/MT will be decreasing coupled w/ initiation of -AAM poleward propagation.

I still like Feb 23-Mar 10 approximately. I think there will be a  6-10" event minimum in that period, somewhere along I-95.

I completely agree with all of this.

I meant that I didn't think the robust early February pattern would materialize. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I completely agree with all of this.

I meant that I didn't think the robust early February pattern would materialize. 

So a 6 to 10 , yea lipstick on a pig. Looking ugly

[Baroclinic Zone]

f-u-g-l-y, close the shades for another 10 days.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

f-u-g-l-y, close the shades for another 10 days.

16th -20th might be a period to watch though

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

f-u-g-l-y, close the shades for another 10 days.

Yup......makes you want to go to Home Depot and start checking out the lawn care section.

Meanwhile, my connecting flight to Chicago was canceled yesterday.  Two days in a row, two cancelations.  Unfortunately I made it to the airport before the cancelation this time.  On the other hand, my initial flight was delayed an hour so I got the cancelation before I took off.  Otherwise, I'd have been scrambling in IAD.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yup......makes you want to go to Home Depot and start checking out the lawn care section.

Meanwhile, my connecting flight to Chicago was canceled yesterday.  Two days in a row, two cancelations.  Unfortunately I made it to the airport before the cancelation this time.  On the other hand, my initial flight was delayed an hour so I got the cancelation before I took off.  Otherwise, I'd have been scrambling in IAD.

I am going to measure your depth on the way to the Beast. Are you home, bunch of weenies GTG up there today,  stop by

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You can pump all the heights you want in the AO and NAOs, and that still does not lead to a favorable snowy pattern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes has 3-4 rain events thru day 10. Not 1 snow flake.  all pond ice will melt, snow gone except for mtns. Just tough to swallow after all the promised forecasts of big winter month. Voodoo stratosphere nonsense and promises of negative indices.All tossed

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes has 3-4 rain events thru day 10. Not 1 snow flake.  all pond ice will melt, snow gone except for mtns. Just tough to swallow after all the promised forecasts of big winter month. Voodoo stratosphere nonsense and promises of negative indices.All tossed

ASOUT.  Hopefully we can get a light covering of new before the onslaught of rain events.

[Hazey]

f-u-g-l-y, close the shades for another 10 days.

Minimum in my opinion.

[Cold Miser]

13 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

$38 tix if you have gear (on Liftopia)

No gear.  Would have to rent everything

[moneypitmike]

47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am going to measure your depth on the way to the Beast. Are you home, bunch of weenies GTG up there today,  stop by

When are you guys going to be there?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes has 3-4 rain events thru day 10. Not 1 snow flake.  all pond ice will melt, snow gone except for mtns. Just tough to swallow after all the promised forecasts of big winter month. Voodoo stratosphere nonsense and promises of negative indices.All tossed

Brutal. Would not surpise if this is it. Atmosphere reshuffles, it tries to reload....but just craps the bed, spits out one decent event for the best state in NE, and that’s it.

[codfishsnowman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Brutal. Would not surpise if this is it. Atmosphere reshuffles, it tries to reload....but just craps the bed, spits out one decent event for the best state in NE, and that’s it.

whats the best state? Maine?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

So a 6 to 10 , yea lipstick on a pig. Looking ugly

He said "at least"....what do you want, a KU guarantee??

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes has 3-4 rain events thru day 10. Not 1 snow flake.  all pond ice will melt, snow gone except for mtns. Just tough to swallow after all the promised forecasts of big winter month. Voodoo stratosphere nonsense and promises of negative indices.All tossed

Early into mid Feb was supposed to suck.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Early into mid Feb was supposed to suck.

No it wasn’t. It had looked great 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No it wasn’t. It had looked great 

Well, models were wrong and so weren't you. Some of us told you it was being rushed.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, models were wrong and so weren't you. Some of us told you it was being rushed.

Rushed? Day 10 is late Feb.. and it still looks awful right into Morch . It’s just about over 

[Lava Rock]

whats the best state? Maine?

Looks like a bit of snow tomorrow then rain through Sunday. No real cold either.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, models were wrong and so weren't you. Some of us told you it was being rushed.

Well, the 1st week has come and gone and things still look bleak for 10-14 days.  That brings us to the last week or so of February.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well, the 1st week has come and gone and things still look bleak for 10-14 days.  That brings us to the last week or so of February.  

Right. Second half of February/early March. Maybe it doesn't work out,  but it's too early to say that, regardless of current guidance.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The SSW is just getting underway, so I'm not sure how that is voodoo, as if it should have impacted the NAO before it manifested.

While it is true that not all SSW and NAOs are as impactful ad others, I don't think it's fair to call it voodoo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, this feels like the week before the blizzard, when everyone had their respective minds made up-

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, this feels like the week before the blizzard, when everyone had their respective minds made up-

Some of us don't get blizzards.