February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS says "what snow" for SNE next week?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z GFS says "what snow" for SNE next week?

We punt. Again, always nice to squander the peak climo time of year down this way.

In another two weeks, climo starts to go against us in a hurry

[CoolMike]

38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This I can agree with. I just looked at my event list and we’ve had a ton of .5-2” systems this year.

That is cool in November... not Feb.

I just logged in to say the same thing.  This is the iciest winter I can recall in terms of ice-rink-for-a-driveway mornings.

I'm in Groton, MA now with a nice long driveway and have gone through ten 40 pound bags of Ice Melt.  That's more than double what I remember using in prior years.

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This I can agree with. I just looked at my event list and we’ve had a ton of .5-2” systems this year.

That is cool in November... not Feb.

other than the 20 you received in Jan? Lol you guys, do you know how rare a 12 inch storm is? our climo is typically made up of one or 2 8-12 a year and a bunch of littles. I have had a 12 and a 7 and a bunch of littles to get to 38, my climo is 52. Probably one more 8-12 in there. Typical stuff

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We punt. Again, always nice to squander the peak climo time of year down this way.

In another two weeks, climo starts to go against us in a hurry

Next weekend offers a light overrunning event where we ride the cold side.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

other than the 20 you received in Jan? Lol you guys, do you know how rare a 12 inch storm is? our climo is typically made up of one or 2 8-12 a year and a bunch of littles. I have had a 12 and a 7 and a bunch of littles to get to 38, my climo is 52. Probably one more 8-12 in there. Typical stuff

Devil is in the details.  I think what Brett is saying is he'd rather see a wintry event (3-4") once a week as opposed to going weeks on end between that feature one larger event.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Devil is in the details.  I think what Brett is saying is he'd rather see a wintry event (3-4") once a week as opposed to going weeks on end between that feature one larger event.

apparently a mid Feb thaw, then start the return of chances

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

other than the 20 you received in Jan? Lol you guys, do you know how rare a 12 inch storm is? our climo is typically made up of one or 2 8-12 a year and a bunch of littles. I have had a 12 and a 7 and a bunch of littles to get to 38, my climo is 52. Probably one more 8-12 in there. Typical stuff

Well, not everyone lives where you do.

I'm at 34.5" of a 63" average.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, not everyone lives where you do.

I'm at 34.5" of a 63" average.

Glad we don't live there, Bretts way above average

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Glad we don't live there, Bretts way above average

Eh..I'll take my spot over yours, regardless of what happens this season.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Next weekend offers a light overrunning event where we ride the cold side.

Or we get the CMC solution which shows 2" or less for SNE thru day 10 all while getting 2-3" of rain.

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We punt. Again, always nice to squander the peak climo time of year down this way.

In another two weeks, climo starts to go against us in a hurry

Climo does not get hostile really until mid March. 

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh..I'll take my spot over yours, regardless of what happens this season.

I have averaged 64.5 over the last 17 years so there is that, plus you apparently don't get wind and its flat. Nah I am good I will take my chances at missing out every once in a while.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Glad we don't live there, Bretts way above average

Yeah.... I’m not really complaining... just calling it like it is.

the next couple weeks look bleak.. sucks to waste peak climo.

Ive had a good winter overall so far, no doubt.

[CoastalWx]

Ray is in a good spot. I would take his spot as overall climo favors it too. 

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn’t call it a meh winter, but I think it’s been frustrating at times which causes people to feel that way.  Any winter that had a 12”+ event certainly gets a boost from me. Last year was fortunate to have two of them. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have averaged 64.5 over the last 17 years so there is that, plus you apparently don't get wind and its flat. Nah I am good I will take my chances at missing out every once in a while.

And I've probably averaged more over that 17 years.

I'll take the extra foot annually.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah.... I’m not really complaining... just calling it like it is.

the next couple weeks look bleak.. sucks to waste peak climo.

Ive had a good winter overall so far, no doubt.

This winter has been decent, but if the ending fails, then it will take a hit in my book.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray is in a good spot. I would take his spot as overall climo favors it too. 

I'm glad that he likes his spot.

The elevation is good, but not at the expense of that much latitude. JMHO....its not like he's 1000'.

[CoastalWx]

It will be interesting to see the EPS later, but I’m wondering if guidance is starting to get influenced by the split in the strat. There has been a tendency for higher heights up by the pole.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It will be interesting to see the EPS later, but I’m wondering if guidance is starting to get influenced by the split in the strat. There has been a tendency for higher heights up by the pole.

I would be pretty shocked if we don't see this manifest itself in the ensemble suites over the course of the next several days.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This winter has been decent, but if the ending fails, then it will take a hit in my book.

Yup. I don’t just look at final snowfall numbers either. How we got there matters IMO.

If I get a 20” storm... and an aggregate of 20” the entire rest of winter... not that great.

Hopefully the end of the month shows somebody promise

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn’t call it a meh winter, but I think it’s been frustrating at times which causes people to feel that way.  Any winter that had a 12”+ event certainly gets a boost from me. Last year was fortunate to have two of them. 

The multiple cutters after early January kind of pissed on the aesthetic appeal of this winter. But hopefully we can regain that later this month into early March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. I don’t just look at final snowfall numbers either. How we got there matters IMO.

If I get a 20” storm... and an aggregate of 20” the entire rest of winter... not that great.

Hopefully the end of the month shows somebody promise

The end of the season was my hardest call, and I actually even worked that into the language of the outlook. I did call for the triumphant ending, but also communicated a greater level of uncertainty relative to the rest of the season.

The big start and lame middle were the easiest calls I have had in the several years that I have been doing this....well, that and the huge 2015 year....but the ending of this season represented a cross roads in my analog guidance.

I still say its a go-

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The multiple cutters after early January kind of pissed on the aesthetic appeal of this winter. But hopefully we can regain that later this month into early March.

Yup. The rains have made a fairly decent winter into a pretty poor one for me.  No depth.  No retention.  Lots of ice to deal with

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. I don’t just look at final snowfall numbers either. How we got there matters IMO.

If I get a 20” storm... and an aggregate of 20” the entire rest of winter... not that great.

Hopefully the end of the month shows somebody promise

That was 2011-2012 for me.  One doozy in October then crap the rest of the way

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That was 2011-2012 for me.  One doozy in October then crap the rest of the way

I took a screwing in that Halloween event, too.

One of the worst winters that I can recall.

[weathafella]

What started out with so much promise now will be remembered by whether or not we have a strong or meh finish.   A strong finish redeems it. A weak one puts this in the forgettable category.

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. I don’t just look at final snowfall numbers either. How we got there matters IMO.

If I get a 20” storm... and an aggregate of 20” the entire rest of winter... not that great.

Hopefully the end of the month shows somebody promise

Interesting... so you're looking for more consistent small events to get to average? Nickle's and dimes but more frequent rather than a 20" bomb?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting... so you're looking for more consistent small events to get to average? Nickle's and dimes but more frequent rather than a 20" bomb?

He should move to BTV.