February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[jbenedet]

I'm doubling down on my day 8/9 call for a shift to a favorable winter pattern sub forum-wide for at least a three day window. Whether or not it sticks or around is another, far more difficult question to answer...

 

[ORH_wxman]

Hope the 06z GFS ends up right for next week. That's a scooter fetish high around D7.

 

EPS does support some gradient and an absolutely Siberian frigid airmass in eastern Canada around that time and a bit beyond...so there is an outside shot we could get in on something.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Given the stratospheric implications, its probably right this time.

Wonder if this is still considered Voodoo and just hobbyists being weenies?

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/961606365549662209

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

hope your big end to winter is correct, have to say the gradient is working out, will update the season predictions thread when all the data comes in

I feel good about it, but I've been burned before trusting the NAO...we shall see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Wonder if this is till considered Voodoo and just hobbyists being weenies?

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/961606365549662209

I think the "voodoo" concept comes from people misusing it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Wonder if this is till considered Voodoo and just hobbyists being weenies?

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/961606365549662209

Remains to be seen if it ends up relevant...I sure hope it is. We've seen these things fail to materialize into a favorable Atlantic before, so I'll want to see some pretty big hitting ensemble runs for a -NAO/-AO type pattern. Weeklies were somewhat optimistic about it for late this month, but we know how those roll sometimes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Remains to be seen if it ends up relevant...I sure hope it is. We've seen these things fail to materialize into a favorable Atlantic before, so I'll want to see some pretty big hitting ensemble runs for a -NAO/-AO type pattern. Weeklies were somewhat optimistic about it for late this month, but we know how those roll sometimes.

Yea, very fair post.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Back those trucks up for all that snow! Glad I saw this coming.

Lol you said it was possible, you can't claim credit for a caution flag, now Ray has the balls to lay it all out, you say well maybe yes and maybe no, but you did give the option which can be allowed credit, 1/2 credit to you full credit to Ray

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, very fair post.

I was more referring to the SSW not the sensible outcome. Not all SSWs are good, looks like congrats Europe right now

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hes whining about being inside with two kids for cripes sakes, before he knows it they will be off not wanting to hang with Dad

No, not really...although a rainy weekend sucks. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the "voodoo" concept comes from people misusing it.

No the Voodoo comment came 4 days ago when John first laid it out and someone here posted it. Calling John voodoo stuck in my craw. This has been extremely well predicted by all globals

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No, not really...although a rainy weekend sucks. 

Saturday looks fine

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you said it was possible, you can't claim credit for a caution flag, now Ray has the balls to lay it all out, you say well maybe yes and maybe no, but you did give the option which can be allowed credit, 1/2 credit to you full credit to Ray

Follow my quotes back before 2/1. I said it was falling apart and it didn't look that great. You called me a curmudgeon for it, but it looked like it was becoming unfavorable for a few weeks. There's more to diagnosing a pattern, than EPS bar graphs from weather.us

[CoastalWx]

The voodoo comes from the relevance of it. We have seen multiple so called -NAO looks fail because of a never ending vortex. For once it may have a few things going for it, but no need to go balls to the wall yet.

[Ginx snewx]

Happy Blizz 13 Anniversary, what a day that lives in infamy, why can't we get storms like that anymore, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

No the Voodoo comment came 4 days ago when John first laid it out and someone here posted it. Calling John voodood stuck in my craw. This has been extremely well predicted by all globals

What I mean is the concept of SSW is one prone to being misused by weenies looking to engineer cold and snow...like you said, they aren't all created equally.

I think that's the context in which it is referred to as "voodoo". I don't think anyone was $hitting on John...he's first rate. If you read his post, he explicitly said that there remains much to be determine, such as where the PV ends up etc.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Follow my quotes back before 2/1. I said it was falling apart and it didn't look that great. You called me a curmudgeon for it, but it looked like it was becoming unfavorable for a few weeks. There's more to diagnosing a pattern, than EPS bar graphs from weather.us

I called you a curmudgeon because you post like you are 85 years old, constantly whining. Yes like I said it was a good call by Ray

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I calle dyou a curmudgen because you post like you are 85 years old, constantly whing. Yes like I said it was a good call by Ray

Call it how it is. Not a good pattern and sucks, but nothing we can do. Hopefully later this month improves, or better yet...the 6z GFS verifies next week.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What I mean is the concept of SSW is one prone to being misused by weenies looking to engineer cold and snow...like you said, they aren't all created equally.

I think that's the context in which it is referred to as "voodoo". I don't think anyone was $hitting on John...he's first rate. If you read his post, he explicitly said that there remains much to be determine, such as where the PV ends up etc.

when it was posted the first post explicitly said weenies and Mets , so some like to throw stones, that's cool, expect boulders back

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was more referring to the SSW not the sensible outcome. Not all SSWs are good, looks like congrats Europe right now

Late Dec 2001 SSW....lotta good that did us that winter, lol.

But then again, there was one around Feb 10, 2001....likely led to the March 2001 anomalous blocking....hopefully this upcoming event is more analogous to the latter.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Late Dec 2001 SSW....lotta good that did us that winter, lol.

But then again, there was one around Feb 10, 2001....likely led to the March 2001 anomalous blocking....hopefully this upcoming event is more analogous to the latter.

A great March is always so much fun, especially those who have already written off March and are sure spring starts March 1st

[Baroclinic Zone]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

ski areas are going to be loaded, with some milder temps next week and sun, should be primo

Just in time for Feb vacation too.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

A great March is always so much fun, especially those who have already written off March and are sure spring starts March 1st

A snow hound knows how to find snow late season.

[ORH_wxman]

There is just some brutal cold in Canada during these next couple weeks at least....and it's not bottled up in NW Canada either...it spreads into Quebec, so always have to watch for sneaky scooter highs that turn what we think are cutters into overrunners and SWFEs.

Yeah, it's not as favorable as a 2015 PNA ridge obviously, but you def can't punt those patterns at our latitude. NNE would obviously be more favored, but we've seen some good events before in that setup. There's no doubt we are battling the SE ridge and it could sink us too...but the glass half-full approach is hoping for some well-timed high pressure systems. It is admittedly very much based on luck...or if some hate that term..."unpredictable chaos" in the flow...you get little shortwaves int he fast moving vortex over eastern Canada and they can decide where the strong highs get anchored and where they don't. But that's the reality of our pattern the next 10-12 days since we have no Atlantic help and no big PNA ridge.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is just some brutal cold in Canada during these next couple weeks at least....and it's not bottled up in NW Canada either...it spreads into Quebec, so always have to watch for sneaky scooter highs that turn what we think are cutters into overrunners and SWFEs.

Yeah, it's not as favorable as a 2015 PNA ridge obviously, but you def can't punt those patterns at our latitude. NNE would obviously be more favored, but we've seen some good events before in that setup. There's no doubt we are battling the SE ridge and it could sink us too...but the glass half-full approach is hoping for some well-timed high pressure systems. It is admittedly very much based on luck...or if some hate that term..."unpredictable chaos" in the flow...you get little shortwaves int he fast moving vortex over eastern Canada and they can decide where the strong highs get anchored and where they don't. But that's the reality of our pattern the next 10-12 days since we have no Atlantic help and no big PNA ridge.

I screwed the pooch on the first 9 days of Feb, expected better than -1.5 and 10 inches of snow.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I screwed the pooch on the first 9 days of Feb, expected better than -1.5 and 10 inches of snow.

We've actually had a pretty cold winter, but the snow retention hasn't been great. We're doing ok for "snow cover days"...but not very well for snow depth days. Lots of days where snow depth is like 2" or something....usually a glacier. And the bare ground at times in late January and earlier this week has been an unwelcome sight. Cutters have definitely been a problem this winter. Some winters we minimize them....this year we have not...esp after early January (we managed to minimize the cutters in December...turned one of them into an ice storm).

 

Anyways, hopefully we sink that gradient a little further south than guidance has right now...it would be nice to build a good snow pack going into March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Dude, I am DONE with these kitchen sink, garbage events that result in 1-2" of cement and a glacialized car in the morning.

Keep it....I'd rather have not another flake and warmth, than one more 2-3" of crap, followed by ice, rain and refreeze.

Vomit.

Its been the winter of that crap.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Happy Blizz 13 Anniversary, what a day that lives in infamy, why can't we get storms like that anymore, lol

Can’t believe it’s been 5 years already. Time is really starting to fly since I’m not a kid anymore lol.

That storm broke an atrocious 2 year stretch down this way.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, I am DONE with these kitchen sink, garbage events that result in 1-2" of cement and a glacialized car in the morning.

Keep it....I'd rather have not another flake and warmth, than one more 2-3" of crap, followed by ice, rain and refreeze.

Vomit.

Its been the winter of that crap.

This I can agree with. I just looked at my event list and we’ve had a ton of .5-2” systems this year.

That is cool in November... not Feb.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, I am DONE with these kitchen sink, garbage events that result in 1-2" of cement and a glacialized car in the morning.

Keep it....I'd rather have not another flake and warmth, than one more 2-3" of crap, followed by ice, rain and refreeze.

Vomit.

Its been the winter of that crap.

Save for 2 events in January and a December one 60 days ago, I agree, it's been a MEH winter.