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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the pattern is marginal at best....but I don't see a mild, driving rainer, nor a blizzard. I Think the storm will be pretty unimpressive in general...but I'm not exactly on a role right now haha.

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

the origin of that thing being deep south and kissing the Gulf interface region is a smoking gun for that.   I am also a little less worried ...or perhaps "willing" is really apropos, to debate ptype because we have climate/latitude on our side, ...both of which serve chillier solutions more so than not for any scenario where the vertical cyclonic mechanics uniform traverse SE of ISP. 

This thing ... it almost reminds me of one of the QPF deals in the 1977 earlier in January - though obviously that years antecedent Nino status bares no resemblance. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

Yea, I was just going to say...I didn't look into how moisture rich this system will be despite it being relatively weak/strung out. Makes sense considering it tapping into the gulf....Based on latest GEFS this is going to be quite wet. Probably should up that 3-6" call to 4-8" with locally 6-12"....on the north/west side...

Still think this will look more frontal in nature....

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

Exactly what I was saying to depressed and defeated Scooter last week, pattern screams living on the edge with fast flow multiple chances, stay on your toes weather bros

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

Lets Gooooo!!!

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm good. Hopefully Monday works out, but I'd rather a SB win. Still remarkable differences with the GFS and euro ensembles going forward.

 Oh' don't worry, I will be a miserable poster if I don't have a new base of snow soon.   We are close to seeing the 10 or so posters that live from Runnaway to Snowgeek to me start snapping.

 I won't include MPM or Codfish  because they have probably already snapped.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm good. Hopefully Monday works out, but I'd rather a SB win. Still remarkable differences with the GFS and euro ensembles going forward.

 

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Certainly would make a tainted Monday more enjoyable if it ends up being the case.

I was trying to decide if I would trade snow for a Pats loss

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

yeah I know ...  you didn't ask, but, I've always been of the mind set that big ticket items are great but I'll take nickle and dime years preferable to that.   The reason?  big guys take a lot of probability to align everything they need in time and space to get all those needed moving parts cooperating ...which means, they don't have often.   where as, you can throw buck-shot into the flow and have a steady diet of things to keep the storm enthusiasts entertained. 

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