February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t agree . That time period may be very mild. At least the Morch part . It’s possible there’s a wintry period Feb 16-24

You also said it was going to snow this weekend back on Monday...and that was only 6 days away..and that’s not gonna happen now...so 3-4 weeks from now is certainly not destined to be warm and no snow.  I’d reserve my call on that if I were you.

[SnowHole413]

I’m still expecting the end of February and all of March to go either way honestly. I can’t say anyone here knows exactly what will happen when the PV splits. Models are too volatile to give anyone accurate answers during events like this. All I know is that everyone on this forum should be ready for some wild surprises, whether that’s a torch for the rest of winter or an extremely snowy and cold ending. 

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd love a nice juicy March bowling ball. Haven't had one in a while. Mar 2013 was prob the last one in the firehouse event. Doesn't even have to be that prolific. Just a good high end warning event with good rates from an awesome ULL. The kind where it's 44F the day before and people don't know what's about to hit them. 

I’ll tell the story again....

A sub par winter featured an unusually strong cold front in the final day or 2 of February.   I remember my mother driving me home from some after school activity wth the sky having that typical immediately post fropa scud blowing around.   I honestly remember thinking the cold is too late with no snow on the way.  About 2 days later heavy snow warnings were up.    Friday 3/3 delivered one of the great blizzards of the 20th century.   The month of March was full on winter!   The following winter was one of the all timers.

[dryslot]

Have pillows falling out of the sky...lol, Will go measure shortly, The back edge is not far away, 19°F

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

You also said it was going to snow this weekend back on Monday...and that was only 6 days away..and that’s not gonna happen now...so 3-4 weeks from now is certainly not destined to be warm and no snow.  I’d reserve my call on that if I were you.

Well, it might snow on Friday afternoon and evening so that is technically the weekend.  Models are still a at odds if it is only NNE or we also get 1-2" into parts of SNE.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a nice rainy weekend coming up. 

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a nice rainy weekend coming up. 

Enjoy the rain....it's the only weather we've got.  On the plus side, it will melt the deck that I'm not going to shovel.

15.3*

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Enjoy the rain....it's the only weather we've got.

15.3*

Should be awesome with two kids stuck inside. Epic pattern change.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be awesome with two kids stuck inside. Epic pattern change.

As long as they're not watching things like Barney videos (do kids still watch that??) you'll keep your sanity.

Meanwhile, we'll hope for more winter in spite of what looks like a terrible way to run a February.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be awesome with two kids stuck inside. Epic pattern change.

Models are looking much better by next weekend

AO free falls next weekend on the Euro

NAO also goes negative next weekend on the Euro.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Models are looking much better by next weekend

AO free falls next weekend on the Euro

NAO also goes negative next weekend on the Euro.

That week coincides with a FL trip.  Can I get 2-for-2 flight cancelations?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models are looking much better by next weekend

AO free falls next weekend on the Euro

NAO also goes negative next weekend on the Euro.

Considering you said the Euro is no longer reliable, you must be skeptical...

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models are looking much better by next weekend

AO free falls next weekend on the Euro

NAO also goes negative next weekend on the Euro.

SE ridge flexes and shows no mercy.

[mahk_webstah]

Granted a couple mild days next week...but from GYX this sounds nice:

The deterministic model solutions remain in good agreement on
the long wave pattern through late next week. We begin the
period with a broad trough across the CONUS and an upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific northward into Alaska. Pacific energy
begins to break down the upper ridge while broad troughing
continues downstream over much of the CONUS this forecast
period. While the western ridge will weaken an upper low will
remain in place over Hudson Bay with a series of shortwave
impulses pivoting around this semipermanent feature. This parade
of impulses will bring a series of disturbances to the area
followed by periodic shots of colder air. There are signs that
the upper low may deliver a more significant arctic blast to New
England by late next week. 

[CoastalWx]

There are signs the AO and NAO do drop. I don't think it's entirely voodoo yet either. I sure hope so, otherwise it will be hell through March...lol. 

[WinterWolf]

That a boy Scott...chin up..maybe we wait a bit more like you originally thought anyway.  You were correct in not buying into the epic change this soon anyways.

 

i think we see some improvements going forward too.

[Whineminster]

Soooo big ice for interior this weekend? Cool. 

[Ginx snewx]

wax um up peeps

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be awesome with two kids stuck inside. Epic pattern change.

We ended up on the wrong side of the gradient by 75 miles and now we have to listen to you whine all week, man up

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

wax um up peeps

ski areas are going to be loaded, with some milder temps next week and sun, should be primo

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We ended up on the wrong side of the gradient by 75 miles and now we have to listen to you whine all week, man up

Back those trucks up for all that snow! Glad I saw this coming.

[NorEastermass128]

Later next week looks potentially wintry and snowy...hang in there everybody. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There are signs the AO and NAO do drop. I don't think it's entirely voodoo yet either. I sure hope so, otherwise it will be hell through March...lol. 

I'm telling you, its for real.

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

ski areas are going to be loaded, with some milder temps next week and sun, should be primo

It's a different world up there--even from me only 60 miles south....Climo is enough for consistent snows...

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We ended up on the wrong side of the gradient by 75 miles and now we have to listen to you whine all week, man up

Why should he man up?

The folks who were arguing that you were rushing the good pattern were right.

[J Paul Gordon]

14 hours ago, weathafella said:

Is March 1960 about to walk in?

That would be fantastic. Our all time coldest March with an average high of just 33F

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Considering you said the Euro is no longer reliable, you must be skeptical...

Given the stratospheric implications, its probably right this time.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why should he man up?

The folks who were arguing that you were rushing the good pattern were right.

Hes whining about being inside with two kids for cripes sakes, before he knows it they will be off not wanting to hang with Dad

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Hes whining about being inside with two kids for cripes sakes, before he knows it they will be off not wanting to hang with Dad

Ok, I misunderstood.

Gotcha.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why should he man up?

The folks who were arguing that you were rushing the good pattern were right.

hope your big end to winter is correct, have to say the gradient is working out, will update the season predictions thread when all the data comes in