February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[CoastalWx]

The amount of chatter on twitter about SSW's has become completely out of control. A lot of it seems to be from clueless mets and hobbyists who think cold weather in March matters for traders/energy consumption etc. Holy Cow.  Just so much hype and tracking every little fart emanating from some polar bear in Scandinavia and tracking it's vertical flux into the stratosphere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like its starting to become irrelevant...by the time it happens (if it does at all), it will be too late to matter a whole lot...maybe it will extend a winter pattern in late March...certainly possible. I suppose if it goes bonkers in the next week, maybe we will reap some rewards earlier in early March. But right now, the stratosphere looks frigid. Maybe the warming the Euro shows after the split vortex out beyond D5 will happen...I dunno.

I don't know too much about those...just saw it as a decent possibility late this season because of the analogs.

New York Metrowx seems think it will have fast impacts...which seems suspect given the ice cold nature of the stratosphere currently.

[dryslot]

Should provide plenty of sheet drizzle and temps around 40°F heading into april.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know too much about those...just saw it as a decent possibility late this season because of the analogs.

New York Metrowx seems think it will have fast impacts...which seems suspect given the ice cold nature of the stratosphere currently.

doesn't stay icy cold much longer, here  is a link for ya

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

[Isotherm]

It's a w2 upwell split (after w1 downwell preconditioning already) so the coupling is quite a bit stronger here. It's not so much temperatures; geopotential height alterations are more important. I think we'll see a fairly rapid response aided partially by MJO and AAM changes later this month, such that cooler air relative to normal begins returning toward the last week of Feb. I'm very much interested in the last week of Feb into early March. I've been on the +NAO winter train from the start, but I do believe we'll induce a legitimate -NAO signal beginning late month. The next 10-15 days will be on the warm side to occasionally torch IMO.

[Whineminster]

Any chances for a coastal in the next couple weeks?

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies look like they try and get some higher heights near the Davis Straits. That would coincide with what Isotherm is thinking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

It's a w2 upwell split (after w1 downwell preconditioning already) so the coupling is quite a bit stronger here. It's not so much temperatures; geopotential height alterations are more important. I think we'll see a fairly rapid response aided partially by MJO and AAM changes later this month, such that cooler air relative to normal begins returning toward the last week of Feb. I'm very much interested in the last week of Feb into early March. I've been on the +NAO winter train from the start, but I do believe we'll induce a legitimate -NAO signal beginning late month. The next 10-15 days will be on the warm side to occasionally torch IMO.

I have been since November.

I'll take your word for it on that, I'm no strat. expert...all I know is that my analogs implied a Feb SSW that would fuel a resurgence of winter.

Watch the first two weeks of March....glad the early Jan window worked, lets hope this one pans out.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are your thoughts on the SSW possibility?

Earthlight thinks that this is legit and will change the pattern to a very active and potentially snowy one come late February into March.

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Earthlight thinks that this is legit and will change the pattern to a very active and potentially snowy one come late February into March.

Yep, I posted his New York Metro Weather article on the SSW a couple of days ago. It will be interesting to see what effects (if any) it will have on sensible weather over the next several weeks.

[Ginx snewx]

Best part is being on the warm side in Feb usually means in New England, especially where we ski, lots of snow chances and modeling agrees 

[Ginx snewx]

Boy Meteograms on EPS and GEFS keep areas in NNE below freezing with 14 to 20 inches of snow in the next 15 days sweet

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good discussion but call me skeptical of ssw. If blocking happens, its in March and April when the PV weakens with seasonal change anyway. It just looks too strong at 10mb over hudson bay this month. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Boy Meteograms on EPS and GEFS keep areas in NNE below freezing with 14 to 20 inches of snow in the next 15 days sweet

How bout where folks live in SNE?

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How bout where folks live in SNE?

Didn't look , should I look up ORH or BDL for you. Big gradient so chose wisely 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't look 

Ah.. annual time of year change when the focus turns to Maine ski trip

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ah.. annual time of year change when the focus turns to Maine ski trip

 

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't look , should I look up ORH or BDL for you. Big gradient so chose wisely 

Bump

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ah.. annual time of year change when the focus turns to Maine ski trip

That's already booked, we ski Berkshire East Fri and slowly move our way North with the season, no dummy here. Killington Okemo got smoked last night 16 plus. Both on the agenda, probably Cannon, maybe a Ragged day, Wildcat for sure. As the sun rises so does the ash of an old man

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Bump

TOL to KLL

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

TOL to KLL

No such Meteogram

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How bout where folks live in SNE?

Those poor folks.  Glad we don't live there.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

TOL to KLL

 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Those poor folks.  Glad we don't live there.

Orh looks great,  gradient, pike looks like the line, sucks to live below that  hence we go to winter 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Glad I live here.  Bring on Spring.

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Orh looks great,  gradient, pike looks like the line, sucks to live below that  hence we go to winter 

Thankfully any long range Euro guidance blows balls 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Any chances for a coastal in the next couple weeks?

Which coast?

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Glad I live here.  Bring on Spring.

Long time until that kicks in.  Enjoy cold rain, mud, and potholes for a while

[J Paul Gordon]

I take it that the much anticipated Wednesday snow has turned into a mainly wet event in SNE. Good thing about escaping another "snow day" is that I don't have to stay home with the wife.

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Long time until that kicks in.  Enjoy cold rain, mud, and potholes for a while

We live where roads are paved.  No such thing as mud.

Potholes have been filled with the thaw, fortunately.

Cold rain coming Wednesday for sure.

 

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We live where roads are paved.  No such thing as mud.

Potholes have been filled with the thaw, fortunately.

Cold rain coming Wednesday for sure.

 

Wish we were there. We have 6” of ice pack outside, a skateable driveway, frostheaves the size of Mt Tolland, 6-10” on the way, and no sign of improvement anytime soon.