February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[jbenedet]

Going to want latitude for Monday. Thinking this is mostly wet outside of NNE, and NW MA. Teleconnections no good, neither is the antecedent airmass....

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not so sure that cold air mass gets scoured out that quickly though even with it retreating.

It also seems like this could correct E a bit, I'll be more interested tonight at 0z. Has potential to give the deep interior 6" of dense. 

[Ginx snewx]

i am thinking CMC has the right idea, boundary layer is forced south. Pope the temps are perfect antecedant? not seeing 40s everywhere? upper 20s for most

[WthrJunkyME]

2 hours ago, 512high said:

nice shot what time was that? 730-8am?

Earlier, about 6:50.  

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It also seems like this could correct E a bit, I'll be more interested tonight at 0z. Has potential to give the deep interior 6" of dense. 

The GGEM was in a good spot as it had the track east of the GFS, So yeah, Its still all up in the air at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not so sure that cold air mass gets scoured out that quickly though even with it retreating.

It had better snow in spots that whiffed yesterday, or else the $hit tainted bankings won't be the only things melting in the rain.

[WthrJunkyME]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

It was suppose to be around 8:30 up here.

After this shot, that thing was over the hill and gone in 10 minutes.  I had read 8:30 as well.  Maybe the total eclipse occurred at 8:30?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It had better snow in spots that whiffed yesterday, or else the $hit tainted bankings won't be the only things melting in the rain.

Lets do this!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Lets do this!

I'm pretty skeptical of a mainly rain event over the interior, at least....H5 is weakening upon approach. This will probably trend cooler.

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That would work here, but the GFS looking ugly it seems.

That's a deva-vu from early January, on the 12z GGEM.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty skeptical of a mainly rain event over the interior, at least....H5 is weakening upon approach. This will probably trend cooler.

Sharp trough with srfc low GOM origins. Pattern is still fairly progressive, but it's not the ideal snow look. Definitely could be interior deal.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It had better snow in spots that whifed yesterday, or else the $hit tainted bankings won't be the only things melting in the rain.

Its solid cover here but its mostly solid ice, We need some fresh.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

i am thinking CMC has the right idea, boundary layer is forced south. Pope the temps are perfect antecedant? not seeing 40s everywhere? upper 20s for most

I guess I should clarify - looks seasonably cold. About Normal in my book. So not good, but not terrible either. But "not good" isn't going to cut it for most of  SNE without a Canadian HP in place at go time....

GFS looks over-amped to me. Blend 50/50 0z Euro with 12z GFS for track/storm intensity...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Sharp trough with srfc low GOM origins. Pattern is still fairly progressive, but it's not the ideal snow look. Definitely could be interior deal.

No, the pattern is marginal at best....but I don't see a mild, driving rainer, nor a blizzard. I Think the storm will be pretty unimpressive in general...but I'm not exactly on a role right now haha.

[ORH_wxman]

There's synoptic disagreement on the whole setup for Monday...the GGEM doesn't run a low through Quebec right before the system like the GFS does. Therefor, you'd hold a lot more cold in. The GFS manages to bring a lot of southerly flow out ahead of the low with that low sneaking to our north, so you have a less ideal airmass in place.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I guess I should clarify - looks seasonably cold. About Normal in my book. So not good, but not terrible either. But "not good" isn't going to cut it for most of  SNE without a Canadian HP in place at go time....

GFS looks over-amped to me. Blend 50/50 0z Euro with 12z GFS for track/storm intensity...

Agree that GFS is overamped.

[dryslot]

That 0z Euro run was a furnace in NE.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I guess I should clarify - looks seasonably cold. About Normal in my book. So not good, but not terrible either. But "not good" isn't going to cut it for most of  SNE without a Canadian HP in place at go time....

GFS looks over-amped to me. Blend 50/50 0z Euro with 12z GFS for track/storm intensity...

Anyone inland more than about 10-15 miles in SNE can snow pretty easily in an average early February airmass with no high to the north. It's going to be all about the mid-levels as is usual for the majority of interior SNE...if the mid-levels support snow, then it will snow. The coastline will have more issues though without a high.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's synoptic disagreement on the whole setup for Monday...the GGEM doesn't run a low through Quebec right before the system like the GFS does. Therefor, you'd hold a lot more cold in. The GFS manages to bring a lot of southerly flow out ahead of the low with that low sneaking to our north, so you have a less ideal airmass in place.

 

 

The GFS is probably right on that northern low.  It almost always seems to handle those better than any other model 

[dryslot]

That's about an active 10 day period as has been seen on the models all winter, Several more chances next week if some don't work out.

[CoastalWx]

Poo poo Pope?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS is probably right on that northern low.  It almost always seems to handle those better than any other model 

Lol . It does?

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET looks like it has no storm at all  looking at the 24 panels or just a very weak low that goes up off the coast from 96-120

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyone inland more than about 10-15 miles in SNE can snow pretty easily in an average early February airmass with no high to the north. It's going to be all about he mid-levels as is usual for the majority of interior SNE...if the mid-levels support snow, then it will snow.

I don't disagree. But you're starting warm - even at the mid levels, and there's no backside CAD assist without even a feeble HP on the north/west side of this.

Basically this disturbance brings its environment with it, and in marginal areas you're relying on dynamic cooling for a weak system that's a fast mover...

I'm also favoring a track very close to SNE, based on ++NAO/neutral AO/+PNA  and South Stream short wave passing close to Gulf...

 

[jbenedet]

I think this is going to look a lot more like a weak open wave moving quickly along a frontal boundary... Stripe of 3-6" snows on the NW side, rain to the South/east.

[CoastalWx]

The gfs usually is too warm below 850. Always a given. That low track certainly would support NE flow and a decent direction for air cold enough in that part of NH. I see it  all the time with that model. Speaking verbatim of course.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don't disagree. But you're starting warm - even at the mid levels, and there's no backside CAD assist without even a feeble HP on the north/west side of this.

Basically this disturbance brings its environment with it, and in marginal areas you're relying on dynamic cooling for a weak system that's a fast mover...

I'm also favoring a track very close to SNE, based on ++NAO/neutral AO/+PNA  and South Stream short wave passing close to Gulf...

 

I guess what I am saying is I don't care about a high to the north if the mid-levels are cold enough....if the mid-level track is somewhat inland, then that will skunk a lot of folks...even up to your area. But if it remains far enough east to keep the mid-level temps below 0C, then it will snow regardless of what the high looks like to the north....if you are within 10 miles of the coasts though in SNE, then the lack of the high could torch the boundary layer.

[Typhoon Tip]

ah,...sh  -  i gaffed it. I didn't even see/pay attention to that "little critter" there on Wed.   That things got a small but potent mid lvl wind max too.  

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets do this!

new nickname for you MOF, miserable old fuk

[Typhoon Tip]

Ah ahahaha... oh man.. that's gotta be the best model run of the oper. GFS i've seen since 2015...  

there's like 5 chances for a 12" of snow on that sucker. 

pitty of none materialize but ...they are there.   

Not for not, the "active period" has been on the slates for while regardless of model type, so... probably more in line with general numeric potential more so than anything else, but man what an entertainer for the modeling lovers!   This is your run