February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Siker]

18z GFS looks like it will be better for SNE, further south over the Plains with slightly lower heights out east.

[powderfreak]

Might as well just start a thread for Wednesday... its got a good chance for SNE fun so should get enough posts to warrant a thread.

[ORH_wxman]

That's definitely colder/southeast on GFS. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Might as well just start a thread for Wednesday... its got a good chance for SNE fun so should get enough posts to warrant a thread.

I see what you did there.

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That's definitely colder/southeast on GFS. 

Yeah could see it in the southern Plains pretty early on with the strength of the jets and heights.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that’s definitely wintry even for Boston. Snow to maybe sleet or brief cold rain and back to snow.

[MJO812]

CMC and gfs are pretty similiar

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I see what you did there.

Fire it up.  Need to get enough of the population involved to start a thread, haha.  It's an unmanned firehose, could track anywhere.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

CMC and gfs are pretty similiar

cmc is a pretty diesel solution though while gfs weaker. I wouldnt say same nor would I want those two models on our side.

[powderfreak]

Tickle tickle.  Pretty meh outcome for Gods Country though

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tickle tickle.  Pretty meh outcome for Gods Country though

He makes it very easy to hope he sucks cirrus. If it wasn’t for the good folks like Hippy Valley..I’d wish that for every event. Good grief. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Where does this God live? 

[scoob40]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where does this God live? 

West Chesterfield is the snow Capital. All others bow to its glory.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

West Chesterfield is the snow Capital. All others bow to its glory.

Home of Ullr. 

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tickle tickle.  Pretty meh outcome for Gods Country though

That would make a lot of forum pretty happy. Maybe juice it up a little more. This should have some good gulf moisture in it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Those warm EPS runs are slowly vanishing the last 2 days 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tickle tickle.  Pretty meh outcome for Gods Country though

That jackpot Zone is exactly where I want to see it. Lock it up!!

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

West Chesterfield is the snow Capital. All others bow to its glory.

If you ever have seen the glen you would know the magic

[jbenedet]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I dunno pope-the thickness packing in eastern Canada typically exerts more influence than models credit at this time frame.

Clearly going to be another sheared out wave/cold frontal look. Still thinking most of SNE will be too warm for this

The UL height anomalies along the Eastern CONUS are increasing run to run on the GFS. The 18z GFS continued this trend. That wasn’t a colder run; the 18z was warmer than 12z at the surface, 850 and H5.

[Ginx snewx]

Increasing Eastern Canada  HP, lowering pressures south of  New England, increased baroclinic. Don't know how the Pope says this is trending to a sheared out mess

[Damage In Tolland]

Hitting the wine?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Increasing Eastern Canada  HP, lowering pressures south of  New England, increased baroclinic. Don't know how the Pope says this is trending to a sheared out mess

I agree

I think this trends colder due to the epo influence

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hitting the wine?

GFS with a rare south SNE ice storm in la la land

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I agree

I think this trends colder due to the epo influence

It always does.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, scoob40 said:

West Chesterfield is the snow Capital. All others bow to its glory.

yup, the tales i have heard are incredible from a handful of folks who live or have lived there over the years

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

He makes it very easy to hope he sucks cirrus. If it wasn’t for the good folks like Hippy Valley..I’d wish that for every event. Good grief. 

he has suffered plenty in recent years in God's country bc God decided to bury eastern zones, cut the guy some slack

not just you...the rest of you too and you all know who you are

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

he has suffered plenty in recent years in God's country bc God decided to bury eastern zones, cut the guy some slack

not just you...the rest of you too and you all know who you are

He hasn’t suffered all that much.   Admittedly you have although you live in a kind of qpf hole.   He’s had snow otg continuously for 2 months and is progged to get feet in the next week.  He’s the biggest debbie here although I still love him.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

he has suffered plenty in recent years in God's country bc God decided to bury eastern zones, cut the guy some slack

not just you...the rest of you too and you all know who you are

He’s had snow otg more than any of us no matter how hard he’s so called “screwed.” Give me a break. I’m supposed to give a flying phuck because he has 5” otg instead of 10”? Boo fooking hoo. You guys are a different story. I do feel for that area. If anything I don’t know how you tolerate his whining. I love MPM too, but dear god, the whining is nuts. Especially on 2/3.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Increasing Eastern Canada  HP, lowering pressures south of  New England, increased baroclinic. Don't know how the Pope says this is trending to a sheared out mess

It already is sheared out. 1008 mb. Weak wave riding along a CF. That’s it. HP in eastern Canada is tenuous as is, and will not be in the picture at all by go time if the WAR builds the way I expect it to. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would make a lot of forum pretty happy. Maybe juice it up a little more. This should have some good gulf moisture in it. 

Yeah definitely.  The GFS is the driest of the 3 main globals with the ECMWF and GGEM significantly wetter, despite different tracks.

The one thing is it looks to be mostly warm air advection initiated.  You could tell the GFS would be lighter and weaker as the H85 jet was significantly less and much later to develop, straight down into the southern Plains and southeast region.  No cold conveyor belt, very SWFE style...I could see this limiting the upward potential of this to 10" or so.  Which no one here would turn down but strikes me as one of those more uniform events in the snow zone.  Not as much banding as stratiform precip.

I'd think the weaker it is the less precip but also the colder it is...stronger will be wetter and warmer.