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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love a March tempest. I know everyone complains how the snow melts, but when they come, they deliver the goods. 

Hell, the March bomb last year stuck around for literally like 3 weeks...I still had snow cover when that busted 4/1 event happened. That March bomb last year was total man pack....I know the coast didn't get it quite as good, but even there it was pretty meaty. Once you got west of 128, it was really good. Like 9 to 1 snow that ended as this rimed snowflake mess...I remember models tried to bring pellets back to like MPM....but I never flipped even though the snow did get a bit rimey.

 

Good storm though...most of the 14" I got fell in about 5 hours...prob 10-11" of it in that timespan.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hell, the March bomb last year stuck around for literally like 3 weeks...I still had snow cover when that busted 4/1 event happened. That March bomb last year was total man pack....I know the coast didn't get it quite as good, but even there it was pretty meaty. Once you got west of 128, it was really good. Like 9 to 1 snow that ended as this rimed snowflake mess...I remember models tried to bring pellets back to like MPM....but I never flipped even though the snow did get a bit rimey.

 

Good storm though...most of the 14" I got fell in about 5 hours...prob 10-11" of it in that timespan.

I was in Dallas for that, but it was like 4” of pure cement when I came back. Absolutely impenetrable. 

Anyways the EPS really trying to build back some ridging south of AK after day 10.  Hopefully it continues.  

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

AO ensembles again today were less optimistic.  They still drop it late but they actually now show it going positive for a time more than they had been.  You have to think the MJO in 7 longer and stronger than expected is what is/has thrown the guidance off.  I’m not terribly concerned if it doesn’t make it strongly into 8 and 1.  There is enough positive evidence that if we can just get it the heck out of the 7 and into a weaker state things should improve 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

AO ensembles again today were less optimistic.  They still drop it late but they actually now show it going positive for a time more than they had been.  You have to think the MJO in 7 longer and stronger than expected is what is/has thrown the guidance off.  I’m not terribly concerned if it doesn’t make it strongly into 8 and 1.  There is enough positive evidence that if we can just get it the heck out of the 7 and into a weaker state things should improve 

Maybe ... unless of course you know for certain - certainty in this business is a path of least resistance to a destination of greatest regret.. 

I have had this discussion with Scott re the subject matter of OLR numbers/forcing but to paraphrase, the MJO seems to me to be more about constructive or destructive global wave number/interference, and less about an actual pattern driver.   If the hemisphere "likes" phase 4 - you fry... If the hemisphere like Phase 8 ... phase 4 MJO's tend to damp out and show less obvious markers on the pattern.  

I will say that the GEFs have introduced a dramatic mode change in the western Pacific...  But what's funny, doing so when the present MJO either decays on the boundary of phase 7/8...or marches into 8... which that would be a destructive interference... oy!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Us lowlanders too or only up on Ol' Moose Fart?

Looked pretty crappy there, you'd get some front end snow but then flip...even Stowe prob pings for a while...it would be better if that whole thing was about 75-100 miles southeast of the Euro depiction for your backyard. Luckily, I do think this has some room to move SE for your area. Tougher down my way.

 

edit: I should clarify that I'm talking about Wednesday....you shouldn't deal with any mixing I don't think for Sun night. Though it's not a large event for the latter.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looked pretty crappy there, you'd get some front end snow but then flip...even Stowe prob pings for a while...it would be better if that whole thing was about 75-100 miles southeast of the Euro depiction for your backyard. Luckily, I do think this has some room to move SE for your area. Tougher down my way.

 

edit: I should clarify that I'm talking about Wednesday....you shouldn't deal with any mixing I don't think for Sun night. Though it's not a large event for the latter.

Gotcha, thanks.  I'm fine with anything that would be a net gainer.  I'm not a purest about my pack. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Gotcha, thanks.  I'm fine with anything that would be a net gainer.  I'm not a purest about my pack. 

Neither am I...I actually don't mind some sleet taint sometimes...put some beef into the pack.

Hopefully this one at least gets yall up north with something good...it would really suck to have this tracking over Plattsburgh or even ALB.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Neither am I...I actually don't mind some sleet taint sometimes...put some beef into the pack.

Hopefully this one at least gets yall up north with something good...it would really suck to have this tracking over Plattsburgh or even ALB.

I'm thinking we would prefer a Ginx to Scooter to Dryslot track up here.  Sorry Dryslot and Tamarack

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hell, the March bomb last year stuck around for literally like 3 weeks...I still had snow cover when that busted 4/1 event happened. That March bomb last year was total man pack....I know the coast didn't get it quite as good, but even there it was pretty meaty. Once you got west of 128, it was really good. Like 9 to 1 snow that ended as this rimed snowflake mess...I remember models tried to bring pellets back to like MPM....but I never flipped even though the snow did get a bit rimey.

 

Good storm though...most of the 14" I got fell in about 5 hours...prob 10-11" of it in that timespan.

Was a great storm indeed. Sw coastal CT had 9.5 inches that lasted for weeks. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Scott, I know you are a real regression mongerer as it relates to snowfall...how about the NAO? Do you feel that should event out some?

Well my argument with snowfall is that at some point I know my area probably will regress. I’m averaging some pretty hefty totals. Perhaps it means no 100” winters and just mundane 30-50” winters, perhaps it means a series a ratters will occur, but this is all based on climo. Let’s say even if we are in a new era, I still think 50”+ averages will come down some.

So anyways this is based off climo. I can’t say I’m well versed in NAO climo (other than it is natural for a PV to be near the pole.) However the law of averages would say we are certainly due. For whatever the case may be, we seem to be in a stable base +NAO state when the cold season comes. I’d be a very rich man if I knew why. One thing I have noticed is that recent Falls have featured some active solar periods. While I don’t think it’s the main reason, perhaps it’s not helping our cause. I’m sure there’s a million other reasons we just don’t know. But to answer your question, at some point the pendulum has to swing back the other way.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks...just interested in your thoughts on the matter.

True RE la ninas, but I'm suprised this has been so positive with a weak east-based structure.

We had such a streak of high -NAO stretches so perhaps we are paying up. Eventually though we will go through another -NAO stretch. Don’t forget the 80s had a ton of +NAO years too. It’s definitely happened before. Meanwhile we are seeing a great Pacific help compensate really since 2013. Minor stretches of crap aside, we have benefitted quite a bit from that. I’m pretty happy with that, but next week is a great example of why we need a -NAO.

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