February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[SnowHole413]

Congrats to tug hill and old forge on that euro run

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has been stubborn on Wednesday being a turd. Hopefully it's wrong. That sucks even for a lot of NNE. I at least would like to see them lay down good snow in the ski areas. 

It took until today to get Monday right , so by Monday it should get Wednesday right 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

February rain is under-rated

Fleeting highs and weenie cries 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

February rain is under-rated

Fleeting highs and weenie cries 

We have a Scooter high, it just goes from Bermuda to Halifax Nova Scotia. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Congrats to tug hill and old forge on that euro run

 That's not what I tuned in to hear.  Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has been stubborn on Wednesday being a turd. Hopefully it's wrong. That sucks even for a lot of NNE. I at least would like to see them lay down good snow in the ski areas. 

I hope its right.

I'll take 50s.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We have a Scooter high, it just goes from Bermuda to Halifax Nova Scotia. 

worse than that... 

there is a positive anomaly situated off the California coast .... in concert with some kind of a +PNA... the heights immediately subtended down stream try to compensate in the negative direction but fail to do so in equal magnitude...  that's almost disturbing.  in fact, the heights just beneath said subtended failure are actually modestly still positive throughout old Mexico.. merging with the Caribbean/SW Atlantic positive anomaly. 

the net of all?  we're trying to drop a robin's egg vortex over top and expect anything to come out of the result buzzing-saw.   it's gonna take some nuance ...spit grease and luck.  all the while, that configuration not only seems to bias positive heights everywhere (despite the vortex to the north)... has been verifying for the past three years.  heh. 

it's almost like if you take a single model run and use it to exemplify a climate in peril ...that d6 Euro is it -

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing Sunday? 

It went from amped super soaker to scattered showers in 1 run.

POS

Close the shades 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

worse than that... 

there is a positive anomaly situated off the California coast .... in concert with some kind of a +PNA... the heights immediately subtended down stream try to compensate in the negative direction by fail to do so in equal magnitude...  that's almost disturbing.  in fact, the heights just beneath said subtended failure are actually modestly still positive throughout old Mexico.. merging with the Caribbean/SW Atlantic positive anomaly. 

the net of all?  we're trying to drop a robin's egg vortex over top and expect anything to come out of the result buzz-saw.   it's gonna take some nuance ...spit grease and luck.  all the while, that configuration not only seems to bias positive heights everywhere (despite the vortex to the north)... has been verifying for the past three years.  heh

I haven’t liked the look for days now. It started with a piece of energy breaking down the ridging in Canada and now it’s all lower heights there. It’s too bad because I never would have thought that a week ago. But it became apparent several days ago that it may not be the best look. We’ll see if we can improve after next week. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Brutal. Need second half of feb to produce now, big time.

[SnowHole413]

I never would have thought the NAO would be positive for 2 months straight lol. So much for that east based Niña, low solar/-qbo helping out. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Powderboy413 said:

I never would have thought the NAO would be positive for 2 months straight lol. So much for that east based Niña, low solar/-qbo helping out. 

Yea, the moderately negative qbo thing is just a piece of the puzzle but we unfortunately fell into the 20% of the times the nao is positive. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

I never would have thought the NAO would be positive for 2 months straight lol. So much for that east based Niña, low solar/-qbo helping out. 

I haven't bought any NAO voo-doo for the past 2-3 years....until I see absolutely definitive evidence that it's changing, then we're stuck in the status quo. That N ATL pattern has been there since spring 2013 basically. A few brief times it looked to break but it always comes back very strong.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah.. I know I don't have many on my side here with this, but ...post February 1 and most definitely post March 1 ... this kind of antic is too much of a turn off to want to really dial in.. 

I cannot help but just cave to inevitability of summer.  Ha, he says at 21 F and falling...  still, just saying if one could have his druthers.  

Alas, I fear what you see is what you get seemingly forever ...  pretty strong argument for finding other hobbies. It's hard to knock trends and it's like the models have an agenda to hold back the goods and only wait to the last minute to capitulate when times are faux good. Otherwise, bad is an easy assumption. 

But, attempting something bit more pragmatic and objective, I still think that Monday's system could sneak a cooler profile if a more important southern system closes off some isobars sooner/back SW. That could materialize should this 18z and particularly this 00z relay in somewhat more potency with that wave careening off the Pac up near Washington/ lower B.C.... If so, you end up inversely instantiating (for lack of better way to describe) an ageostrophic component and some colder profiles get back involved.   It's probably the only way in a flattish high speed fury of a flow to do it... The problem is that in the last several...days of runs (actually) the models keep puking paltry wave mechanics off the Pac; all it serves to do is gulp up Gulf PWAT air and diarrhea over us as the whole mess scoots through.  

[CoastalWx]

And there it is. Tippy summer crisp CB posts already starting.

[Cold Miser]

59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We all lose it Wed on the Euro

Really?  What does it show?  Should I just close the blinds from now until the middle of the month?

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

And there it is. Tippy summer crisp CB posts already starting.

The longing for crocuses sprouting in March will quickly turn in diatribes about the gulf of maine vomiting on us for a week straight in April/May while it is 75F and partly sunny in Albany up to BTV.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

Really?  What does it show?  Should I just close the blinds from now until the middle of the month?

 

Lol just rain not much but temps near 50

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And there it is. Tippy summer crisp CB posts already starting.

oh whatever... way to focus on that hyperbole crap.   see i think nice weather does cause the lot of you some weird discomfort...   

look, i spent more energy describing how to get monday into a cooler solution.   why not focus there - 

also, i think the end of next week the euro has a different look now; bucks for pancaking the flow so much that you squeeze an upper ma/sne event out of that look. 

[Cold Miser]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol just rain not much but temps near 50

Awful. 

...Goodnight.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The longing for crocuses sprouting in March will quickly turn in diatribes about the gulf of maine vomiting on us for a week straight in April/May while it is 75F and partly sunny in Albany up to BTV.

Some sort of cosmic device porking is from the northeast.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh whatever... way to focus on that hyperbole crap.   see i think nice weather does cause the lot of you some weird discomfort...   

look, i spent more energy describing how to get monday into a cooler solution.   why not focus there - 

also, i think the end of next week the euro has a different look now; bucks for pancaking the flow so much that you squeeze an upper ma/sne event out of that look. 

John we are just kidding. Lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh whatever... way to focus on that hyperbole crap.   see i think nice weather does cause the lot of you some weird discomfort...   

look, i spent more energy describing how to get monday into a cooler solution.   why not focus there - 

also, i think the end of next week the euro has a different look now; bucks for pancaking the flow so much that you squeeze an upper ma/sne event out of that look. 

Euro ensembles rolling out right now actually have a decent synoptic look for next weekend.

[CoastalWx]

And yeah the euro was trying to get more interesting next weekend. Lala land I know, but it has shown up on ensembles.

[BRSno]

Super excited for more rain... Hope Late Feb delivers somehow!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

John we are just kidding. Lol. 

i'm not really annoyed either... .like i said there, 'i realize most don't share my feelings' heh

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Brutal. Need second half of feb to produce now, big time.

I'll be shocked if second half of Fed and/or esrly March don't. That's always been my favored stretch..hope it works.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And yeah the euro was trying to get more interesting next weekend. Lala land I know, but it has shown up on ensembles.

I think that is the first bonafide second half threat.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be shocked if second half of Fed and/or esrly March don't. That's always been my favored stretch..hope it works.

I love a March tempest. I know everyone complains how the snow melts, but when they come, they deliver the goods. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The longing for crocuses sprouting in March will quickly turn in diatribes about the gulf of maine vomiting on us for a week straight in April/May while it is 75F and partly sunny in Albany up to BTV.