February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

We forecast for our backyards.  From Kev to me has had 7 to 9 so far. Scored on Wed

I don't

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Melts galore...lol.   Happy to be about to fly home after a productive trip.  Should be cold!

At least no drought concerns!

[ORH_wxman]

I'd feel pretty decent about Wed in CNE/NNE...SNE interior still has a shot...esp pike northward. Hopefully this drops some good base for ski areas.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd feel pretty decent about Wed in CNE/NNE...SNE interior still has a shot...esp pike northward. Hopefully this drops some good base for ski areas.

 

What's your take

[CoastalWx]

It's definitely displaced and punched around after that split at 10mb. But we've seen it before to no avail.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What's your take

Frigid vortex....that thing ain't splitting anytime soon...but at least it is displaced slightly to our side of the pole. So we could def get some action from time to time....root for the EPO/WPO ridging though...without it, that's an ugly spot to be in because there's zero help int he Atlantic.

[dryslot]

Weds certainly looks better then monday right to the coast in CNE/NNE as long as it holds.

[Damage In Tolland]

So now Monday colder and Wed is warmer. Good lord . Models are lost

[ORH_wxman]

If things break right, it could def be a really nice stretch for NNE ski areas...and perhaps even down into NW MA...hopefully for Beast. They'll get some snow on Sunday night/Monday and then Wednesday could be a solid QPF snow shot for the base...and the pattern looks to continue active after that. Maybe another threat on 2/10-11.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Frigid vortex....that thing ain't splitting anytime soon...but at least it is displaced slightly to our side of the pole. So we could def get some action from time to time....root for the EPO/WPO ridging though...without it, that's an ugly spot to be in because there's zero help int he Atlantic.

I think the Pacific should save us again eventually. 

Dissapointing that nothing is in the pipeline for atlantic help, though. 

[wxeyeNH]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd feel pretty decent about Wed in CNE/NNE...SNE interior still has a shot...esp pike northward. Hopefully this drops some good base for ski areas.

 

Looks like I'm right on the line of a sharp gradient up here.  It's still Friday so I'm sure it can shift quite a bit.  Meanwhile a ton of blowing snow right now.  Those 2" of fluff from yesterday and early this AM are blowing everywhere...

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So now Monday colder and Wed is warmer. Good lord . Models are lost

They look pretty found as it relates to not much sne snow next week.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If things break right, it could def be a really nice stretch for NNE ski areas...and perhaps even down into NW MA...hopefully for Beast. They'll get some snow on Sunday night/Monday and then Wednesday could be a solid QPF snow shot for the base...and the pattern looks to continue active after that. Maybe another threat on 2/10-11.

What is best case for interior SNE Sunday ? Ice to cold rain?

[Weatherexpert]

17 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

It’s over.

Now I won't call you a weenie.... but we are in dead winter.  it will be ok. 6 more weeks winter at the least, lots of potential for storms coming up in these couple months. Keep your head up

[CoastalWx]

 It’s the same old story with that vortex. It gets bumped around but we never achieve a full displacement or A prolonged split. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What is best case for interior SNE Sunday ? Ice to cold rain?

Don't think theres much ice...low level cold is actually the problem for most of it...prob an inch wet snow to rain to best case for you, though right now I prob wouldn't forecast any accumulation. Far NW interior SNE could get a few inches if it breaks right....N ORH county over to MPM region.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't think theres much ice...low level cold is actually the problem for most of it...prob an inch wet snow to rain to best case for you, though right now I prob wouldn't forecast any accumulation. Far NW interior SNE could get a few inches if it breaks right....N ORH county over to MPM region.

So one of those maddening 34-36 degree rainers ?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So one of those maddening 34-36 degree rainers ?

Prob more like 40F eventually. It's an ugly looking upper air...I've been half-expecting this to come in more and more diffuse and flatter, but it's being stubborn. The northern stream somehow keeps amplifying and becoming dominant despite a decent southern shortwave running ahead of it...it basically just dies and the low wants to develop north....if it didn't, we'd probably get a really good snow event. Just a frustrating quirk...but that's how it happens. It's weather.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob more like 40F eventually. It's an ugly looking upper air...I've been half-expecting this to come in more and more diffuse and flatter, but it's being stubborn. The northern stream somehow keeps amplifying and becoming dominant despite a decent southern shortwave running ahead of it...it basically just dies and the low wants to develop north....if it didn't, we'd probably get a really good snow event. Just a frustrating quirk...but that's how it happens. It's weather.

Well hopefully some of the snow survives

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't think theres much ice...low level cold is actually the problem for most of it...prob an inch wet snow to rain to best case for you, though right now I prob wouldn't forecast any accumulation. Far NW interior SNE could get a few inches if it breaks right....N ORH county over to MPM region.

It looks like here there is still a shot at a few inch front end thump but honestly, I'd almost prefer straight rain over rain into a few inches of slop.  Those are always a nightmare clearing the driveway before it freezes.  Hopefully by 18z tonight we start to see the GFS flatten or weaken more. 

[8611Blizz]

Burbank has mentioned the air in canada every forecast this week and is basically begging it to come down. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I had 33 inches in Feb 03 with minus 5  a repeat would be awesome 

Had the cold (all winter, in fact - 2nd coldest met winter, 0.4F behind 14-15) but only 2" from PDII, which probably gave you more than what fell here the entire month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It looks like here there is still a shot at a few inch front end thump but honestly, I'd almost prefer straight rain over rain into a few inches of slop.  Those are always a nightmare clearing the driveway before it freezes.  Hopefully by 18z tonight we start to see the GFS flatten or weaken more. 

I'm with you. 

Keep it out there.

At this stage of winter, it takes 6"+ to pull me away from the fantasy baseball season previews.

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Me , Kev, and Garth

Did awful this one, but the other night was a beauty.  Close to 7 for the week.  I am now hoping that something good unfolds for next week.  I am trying my best not to tune out winter yet.  This much rain in winter gets to me after a while.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So now Monday colder and Wed is warmer. Good lord . Models are lost

.1 tenth qpf for us on the Euro Monday

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well hopefully some of the snow survives

Think a tenth of an inch and 3 hrs at 38 will do little

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So one of those maddening 34-36 degree rainers ?

'tis a disgusting thought.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

'tis a disgusting thought.

We all lose it Wed on the Euro

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think a tenth of an inch and 3 hrs at 38 will do little

Nothing Sunday? 

It went from amped super soaker to scattered showers in 1 run.

POS

[ORH_wxman]

Euro has been stubborn on Wednesday being a turd. Hopefully it's wrong. That sucks even for a lot of NNE. I at least would like to see them lay down good snow in the ski areas.