February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[CoastalWx]

Jeez that’s nasty on the euro!

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You'll prob get another 2-3 days min of big emotional swings on each run. 

Just about the same amount of days it looks to snow.................

[CoastalWx]

Wow that’s a crusher 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS looks a lot colder for the day 10 threat. That may be a better storm than the upcoming super soaker.

Yeah man!  ...30" on Friday and 70" on that one huh

[wxeyeNH]

After last nights Euro and then the 12Z GFS I thought we were basically in the all clear up here with the late week storm.  Now, wow on the Euro.  I will post the clown snow map in a minute once the last storm panels come in.   

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ... obviously we give a few minutes to absorb but it's just details again.

I still ...after all this ... think we are simply still dealing with a time slot of huge potential.

What that is may actually take < 48 hours to start getting a coherent picture. 

I wrote all this in that thread I started for this storm but ... folks are interested. Okay, but ... this thing as 135 pages in it?  really

Yeah we should prob migrate over to the thread you started. We're getting inside 5 days. Regardless of whether this turns into the juggernaut blue bomb or just a tempest rainstorm or even just a mundane system, the threat is clearly strong at this point. 

[dryslot]

Looks like it would snow here from hr 108-150......lol

[weathafella]

I used 925s and they match 850s so 12z Friday on its snow and TONS of it!

[wxsniss]

Again seems to me where surface low ejects and it's subsequent trajectory under the block correlates well with how quickly the s/w tracks from the southwest and interacts with northern stream energy... 12z does this all faster than 0z run, so we get a qpf bomb tracking off of NJ

This is maybe north of earlier ensemble runs today, but I think relatively good consensus 

Nice to see Euro put this out entering 120 hr timeframe

 

[dryslot]

12-24" SNH into SW Maine.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I used 925s and they match 850s so 12z Friday on its snow and TONS of it!

This is the type of system where it will basically go isothermal so it makes sense. With precip that heavy, you're gonna latently cool the column very fast...esp given that WAA shuts off pretty fast (or at least weakens)

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we should prob migrate over to the thread you started. We're getting inside 5 days. Regardless of whether this turns into the juggernaut blue bomb or just a tempest rainstorm or even just a mundane system, the threat is clearly strong at this point. 

my bad if I started that too soon ... but, heh, this is one of those "time slots" that's probably a higher tier one for action. 

Again ...what that is, not withstanding.  And i don't mean to be pissy about it, but I don't like these 100 page threads because I step on other people's contribution and riots start that way I've noticed. 

But then again...part of that is my fault admittedly, because I sometimes disappear for a day and half and fall out of sync..  all good i guess.

[dryslot]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Again seems to me where surface low ejects and it's subsequent trajectory under the block correlates well with how quickly the s/w tracks from the southwest and interacts with northern stream energy... 12z does this all faster than 0z run, so we get a qpf bomb tracking off of NJ

This is maybe north of earlier ensemble runs today, but I think relatively good consensus 

Nice to see Euro put this out entering 120 hr timeframe

 

Yes, It was ejected out sooner out of the SW and better phase with the northern stream ahead of the retrograding block, This is what some in NNE need to see.

[wxeyeNH]

Okay,  I have the Euro clown map.  10 to 1.  Im going to post it in Tips thread for the storm.  It seems like a real threat and we should migrate the postings to its own thread instead of the general Feb thread.   It will be over there if anyone wants to see it.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12-24" SNH into SW Maine.

That sounds good for GC.  It does not sound good for me connecting through JFK to PWM Friday morning.  Or for my daughter to be flying from BWI to PWM Friday morning.

I wonder if they cancel trans-continental flights for wind/rain.  I can always drive from JFK (which would suck).

Still snowing at PWM.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Okay,  I have the Euro clown map.  10 to 1.  Im going to post it in Tips thread for the storm.  It seems like a real threat and we should migrate the postings to its own thread instead of the general Feb thread.   It will be over there if anyone wants to see it.

And why don't you start a new one for the modeling in general  - ...

[dryslot]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

That sounds good for GC.  It does not sound good for me connecting through JFK to PWM Friday morning.  Or for my daughter to be flying from BWI to PWM Friday morning.

I wonder if they cancel trans-continental flights for wind/rain.  I can always drive from JFK (which would suck).

Still snowing at PWM.

That run was good down to you as well.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Brutal rains while just to my north dances in blue snow.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Brutal rains while just to my north dances in blue snow.

Lock it up, pretty sure the Euro gives me zero....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

At least Hippy gets his free lifetime subscription to SWC. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Lock it up, pretty sure the Euro gives me zero....

Still have 3 days to buy a canoe but 0z eps members hinted at the most likely solution....only 1 rogue had a good hit for us. we cant overcome a crap airmass, for now. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Spanks - However, -4C 850 and -1C 925 with N winds should yield snow... yet the algorithm shows rain. So maybe we arent that far off. 

[Spanks45]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Still have 3 days to buy a canoe but 0z eps members hinted at the most likely solution....only 1 rogue had a good hit for us. we cant overcome a crap airmass, for now. 

This being my 4th winter here now, I have realizes that in these marginal situations, it either never switches over to snow or when it does it is always too late. So hopefully I am wrong but, I have a feeling how this story is going to end. I have rivers running through my yard now, I can't foresee snow accumulating at 33 degrees after 2-4 inches of rain on top of what we already have. Probably have a bigger problem with trees uprooting...

[TalcottWx]

That Euro run is sick. I know it has warmth issues. But I don't care. Give me the big storm all day.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I think this is the warmest runs we’ll see. The teleconnections —and guidance in general—points to a nuke. Going forward we should see the surface temps respond favorably to much deeper solutions.

I’m optimistic. 

Dont forget the best snowstorms are typically the ones where you’re riding the (ptype) line.

Yes. Go big or go home

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Spanks - However, -4C 850 and -1C 925 with N winds should yield snow... yet the algorithm shows rain. So maybe we arent that far off. 

With good rates that’s snow.  With crappy rates wh cares?

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Spanks - However, -4C 850 and -1C 925 with N winds should yield snow... yet the algorithm shows rain. So maybe we arent that far off. 

Ignore the algorithms right now. 

[EastonSN+]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah man!  ...30" on Friday and 70" on that one huh

Any chance us coasties are close enough to some snow?

[TalcottWx]

I just fainted when I looked at the Canadian. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Any chance us coasties are close enough to some snow?

oh sure ...  I was kidding about 70 btw - yankin' chains there.

But, it depends what you mean by 'coast'?

Plymouth ...mmm probably would have to wait until the storm's winds back a bit more N ... Up toward coastal NH, a NE wind is really paralleling the coast.