February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[qg_omega]

Classic PV split with all the cold dumped into Europe, enjoy the Pacific air all

[78Blizzard]

I think this thread is going to get a lot quieter, lol.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I think this thread is going to get a lot quieter, lol.

MEH, just wait till the Euro comes out in another ~90min.

[CT Rain]

I mean are people surprised by this? A warm bomb was always a possibility with this setup. 

[CoastalWx]

I'd be happy with heavy rain and coastal flooding.

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'd be happy with heavy rain and coastal flooding.

The GFS is an absolute beast of a storm. That Friday morning high tide would be ugly on the Sound. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS is an absolute beast of a storm. That Friday morning high tide would be ugly on the Sound. 

I know. Pretty nasty stuff. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I mean are people surprised by this? A warm bomb was always a possibility with this setup. 

Some certainly are or will be.  Relying on dynamic cooling to provide your cold source in a garbage pattern is not a recipe for a huge snowstorm.  That's not to say it hasn't occurred but I'm pretty certain they a few and far between.  Let's shoot for a huge rainstorm.

CMC is 3-4" of rain here.

[dryslot]

No shovel, Paddle or Broom needed up here, I like the 7th-8th for NNE

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hes picking up Bryce's Toys and Throwing them Into puddles of 36f Rain.

many of us are throwing all kinds of things into 36f rain puddles today

[ORH_wxman]

This thing isn't really synoptically different from the euro run yesterday. No need to make too many proclamations one way or the other. Possible it ends up too warm but I've seen this movie a bunch of times before too where it cools into a blue bomb as we get closer. (Mar 2013 had some runs where it was too warm, ditto feb 23-24, 2010)

 

[CoastalWx]

The Canadian was pretty sweet looking from a synoptic standpoint.

[dryslot]

Been that way most of the season with a lot of these events as it gets cooler or colder as we get closer in, Not what i'm concerned about here, The block is causing me more of a problem like it usually does from the direction this is retrograding.

[CoastalWx]

ICON has a nice merry go round of lows. 

[#NoPoles]

Interesting to think Feb turned out the complete opposite than we we thought in Jan. "Winter returns Feb 4th" was a common battle cry. And then we end up with a warm, above normal February.

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd be happy with heavy rain and coastal flooding.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Been that way most of the season with a lot of these events as it gets cooler or colder as we get closer in, Not what i'm concerned about here, The block is causing me more of a problem like it usually does from the direction this is retrograding.

Yep. Wouldn't be shocked at all if GFS is too warm. This is still 5 days out. So everyone needs to remember that. If we get that block pressing down, it's going to help with drawing in some drier polar air into the system which will cool things. 

[Hazey]

I'm so glad this is getting blocked for us up here. I've seen enough rain this season. Puff puff pass. Enjoy the storm down there boys. -nao ftw.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Wouldn't be shocked at all if GFS is too warm. This is still 5 days out. So everyone needs to remember that. If we get that block pressing down, it's going to help with drawing in some drier polar air into the system which will cool things. 

That was what I was thinking.  With the primary over the GL we need that PV to do the dirty work for us.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Wouldn't be shocked at all if GFS is too warm. This is still 5 days out. So everyone needs to remember that. If we get that block pressing down, it's going to help with drawing in some drier polar air into the system which will cool things. 

Another example of the cold winning out today up here, Didn't help many south of here this go round but earlier in the week, It was looking like zr here, Now its snow with some IP at the end.

[weathafella]

I watched a spring training Yankee game from where I was staying.   Made me look forward to spring but not before the stemwinder possible in the first 20 days of March.

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I mean are people surprised by this? A warm bomb was always a possibility with this setup. 

Kind of a loaded post here ... I think we all know, full well, that people don't readily associate -NAO driven events with "warm" anything ...  So yeah - people are probably surprised, chagrined ..etc... 

For that matter, there's definitely a predilection in this group of social-media users to filter everything toward a combination of drama and whatever offers the coldest ...most importantly to them, the 'snowiest' of all possible solution.

All that aside, I wrote Will's exact sentiment in that thread that apparently no one has any interest in engaging in ... that these events that are marginal in the mid and extended range tend to end up more isothermal right around freezing through the critical thickness intervals...right all the way up on up, too.  -1 @ 980, 900, 800 ... Classic early spring/spring modeling bias there..

etc..

We'll see... I find it hard to believe though that a GGEM type phasing and a 520 DAM depth SE of ACK would result in that much rain in the CCB ..particularly going from 540 ... shedding some 20 DAM of heights is hard to do without drilling a lot of cold down from aloft ...

Having said all that, I don't have a problem with warm storm per se...I also made it clear that's on the table too.. But, prooobably not happening that way.

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ICON has a nice merry go round of lows. 

Smack that. All on the floor.

[dryslot]

12z GEFS don't look to bad though, Must have a few more members back to the NW as it got some snow into NNE.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GEFS don't look to bad though, Must have a few more members back to the NW as it got some snow into NNE.

Not bad at all. 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why? I appreciate a good storm. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not bad at all. 

Just watching to see which direction the majority of members are heading.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Icon would be a roof collapser out here but its the icon...and at d5. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The flooding rains for SNE on these runs could definitely make things interesting. Lakes rivers etc are running high already.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Interesting to think Feb turned out the complete opposite than we we thought in Jan. "Winter returns Feb 4th" was a common battle cry. And then we end up with a warm, above normal February.

Not everyone thought early Feb would be wintery.