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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted 
Thursday into the weekend...

Battle of airmasses between an ejecting low out of the Central CONUS
up against building high pressure into Canada. Slowed pattern, each
building their own weight, juxtaposition between the two ultimately
determining outcomes. Strong -NAO, -4 to -5 SD, would expect a cool,
dry setup for NE CONUS, storm track lying further S per block. Mid-
Atlantic getting crushed. Interrogating Washington DC top 10 snows
versus the NAO time series after 1948, 5 out of 7 storms, 3 prior to
1948, were associated with a -NAO around -3. Recall February 2010?
Washington DC "snowmageddon" of 17.8"? Monthly NAO averaged near -2.
Cherry picking data? Perhaps. CIPS analogs? Interrogating where NAO
indices <= -1, noting trend of sliding low S of New England, further
so with a stronger -NAO.

Ensemble members clustering off the Delmarva Peninsula while model
deterministic solutions are hugging further N close to Long Island.
Believe S trend is emerging per 25.0z EC. Echoing prior forecaster,
strong -NAO, subsequent block, storms forced E, slowed, evolving
into coastal storms, but storms could get suppressed S. It is all
about timing. Simply wait and see with later forecasts. But per
climatology, prefer ensemble clustering / 25.0z EC which are further
S compared to all other guidance.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The 925mb temps on the GFS are pretty fascinating associated with the firehose.

Pulling warm, moist air all the way up and in from way out in the Atlantic.  That's how you get a big QPF bomb.

gfs_t925_neng_23.thumb.png.8140c15623c2eafc54beecad51f47c93.png

If we don’t snow I hope for a flood. I have like 11” if precip since new year. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ve got every outcome covered. The human NAM.

All I’ve said all along is shunt south is most likely. Not that’s what will happen . I think block has to relax and we wait till Morch 7 storm. There’s a ton of south clustering. Even more than 12z had . Hopefully the north clusters are correct 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

And if one were to actually look at models and compare 00z and 12z, which maybe BOX failed to do, it is not the block. There is a clear weakening from 12z to 00z with the disturbance moving through the Plains, thus the weaker and further south placement. But c'mon people...how many times have we seen this come north on the final few days. It's originating from the west coast trough. Get that sampled and we shall see.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted

Man, that is a powerful ocean storm on the Euro. Little loop-de-loop and everything. Obviously a bit south for our purposes, but I don't necessarily think that's a bad place for it for now. You just know a juiced up latent heat bomb like that is gonna pull the last minute ticks north like last March did. I'd rather sit on the northern fringe with a marginal airmass than be in the thick of it and have a last minute correction turn it into a flooding rainer.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And if one were to actually look at models and compare 00z and 12z, which maybe BOX failed to do, it is not the block. There is a clear weakening from 12z to 00z with the disturbance moving through the Plains, thus the weaker and further south placement. But c'mon people...how many times have we seen this come north on the final few days. It's originating from the west coast trough. Get that sampled and we shall see.

This is like a mega setup and people are celebrating day 7 model trends as if they were victories

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And if one were to actually look at models and compare 00z and 12z, which maybe BOX failed to do, it is not the block. There is a clear weakening from 12z to 00z with the disturbance moving through the Plains, thus the weaker and further south placement. But c'mon people...how many times have we seen this come north on the final few days. It's originating from the west coast trough. Get that sampled and we shall see.

Yeah you wonder if the analogs BOX looked at that crushed the MA also had the west coast trough. I'd bet most had a +PNA coupling.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All I’ve said all along is shunt south is most likely. Not that’s what will happen . I think block has to relax and we wait till Morch 7 storm. There’s a ton of south clustering. Even more than 12z had . Hopefully the north clusters are correct 

Unfortunately, the north clusters are mostly orh and berks, some stretch down to the CT mountains with 12-18” type amounts. 

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