February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

5 days plus, Nobody should be raging, Jack now, Is usually not a jack later.

Truth!

 I honestly won't even be that invested utill Tuesday or so.

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

5 days plus, Nobody should be raging, Jack now, Is usually not a jack later.

Shoveling virtual snow is much easier yet less satisfying than shoveling real snow.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Truth!

 I honestly won't even be that invested utill Tuesday or so.

As Ray stated earlier, this should become more locked in sooner than some of the earlier in the season crap

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 As Ray stated earlier, tASs should become more locked in soon er than some of the earlier in the season crap

The Big block Could Lock this in as soon as Late Monday thou we gotta see that SW Ejection and strength consistent

Just hoping this doesnt Shift south

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Pattern remains active through the next few weeks.  Would love Friday to work out but there should be more chances either way. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would expect the 0z Euro to dial it back a bit...

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would expect the 0z Euro to dial it back a bit...

 

It might not, this looks to be a QPF monster.   I'm more curious at seeing the spread of Southern solutions on the ensemble. 

[dryslot]

25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Shoveling virtual snow is much easier yet less satisfying than shoveling real snow.

 

I prefer the more strenuous real snow

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The Big block Could Lock this in as soon as Late Monday thou we gotta see that SW Ejection and strength consistent

Just hoping this doesnt Shift south

How soon or late that s/w gets ejected out of the SW with the retrograding block will determine the areas that will be affected, Sooner is better then later.

[MJO812]

CMC is coming in further south

[wxsniss]

Corroborating the relationship:
Even as early as 72hrs you can see s/w energy ejecting from southwest is slower... and so we get a more south solution

This will fluctuate a lot this far out, ensembles carry most weight now

[SnowHole413]

Gfs looks like crap

[Hoth]

GFS looks ridiculously wet so far. Yeah, pushing 6"+ qpf in eastern Mass. Wow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

If only that was snow on gfs, be like 2-4 virtual feet.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Corroborating the relationship:
Even as early as 72hrs you can see s/w energy ejecting from southwest is slower... and so we get a more south solution

This will fluctuate a lot this far out, ensembles carry most weight now

The timing of that s/w is all you really need to see to give you a good idea of where it will track.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If only that was snow on gfs, be like 2-4 virtual feet.

What a hard retro on that run. Probably gnarly flooding in the Sound if that happened. Super wet, who cares what the GFS thermals say at this range?

[dryslot]

Torched mid levels on that 0z GFS run, Flooding rains over the SE areas.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Torched mid levels on that 0z GFS run, Flooding rains over the SE areas.

Torched on CMC too

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Torched on CMC too

Get your sandbags ready.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Torched on CMC too

Looked like it was slow coming NE on the CMC too, Slower then the GFS, That air mass is a concern especially early on.

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Get your sandbags ready.

Sultan signal?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Torched mid levels on that 0z GFS run, Flooding rains over the SE areas.

I’m surprised people are so confident on this system given how far out and marginal it is.

I’m not confident. This could easily be a huge rainstorm for SNE. That is absolutely on the table.

Whether it’s slow fast, whatever, it doesn’t matter, airmass isn’t great

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Get your sandbags ready.

Reinforce the Coop

[Ginx snewx]

We will fish Ray out if the Tobin if this is a total Rainer. Lol. You will know he's jumping first "next" post

[Ginx snewx]

We may never see Scooter again, locked up in a ward at Boston Medical repeating over and over, we are talking 1 degree c, 1 freaking degree C

[8611Blizz]

The models should open a waffle house this season imo. I won't flip my **** if this is a rainer, but would like to know by Tuesday :AM at the latest otherwise preparations have to begin for incoming concrete.

[78Blizzard]

Let the meltdowns begin, lol.

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m surprised people are so confident on this system given how far out and marginal it is.

I’m not confident. This could easily be a huge rainstorm for SNE. That is absolutely on the table.

Whether it’s slow fast, whatever, it doesn’t matter, airmass isn’t great

I have more problems then worrying about the air mass, I'm taking a page out of the MPM handbook, We could snow up here if we have the qpf..........lol

[78Blizzard]

Wagons south on the Ukie, too.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Zero trust is that pos model with major ec coastals. Wait an hour.

 

[SnowHole413]

Well if this storms a historical rainer there is always march 8th to watch for the next snowstorm