February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, dont worry...we are used to it out here. Get shafted in all directions. Then say “Thank you sir, may I have another.” 

Ahh the dead poets mantra...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are like 500', no?

600’....every foot counts.

Edit: I just put on my compass and it’s actually 540’ my bad. Damn, that 60’ matters. But if I go upstairs I’m 550’. 

[dendrite]

I feel like we would do well in these setups too...gradually sloping up in elevation into the foothills downstream of the easterly flow. The firehose a few years ago was a little too far south as was Dec 92. I was in Auburn, NH for that and recall a sloppy dumping of about 10”. I wanna say it went from rain to snow to rain, but don’t hold me to that...I was only 14.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahh the dead poets mantra...

I’ m not sweating deets at this lead time but geez ....like give me the Dec airmass where we pennied and nickled in 10F....NOW. 

[tunafish]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Any requests?

PWM, please

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Any requests?

 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ m not sweating deets at this lead time but geez ....like give me the Dec airmass where we pennied and nickled in 10F....NOW. 

Oh I hear ya..but that’s not in the cards obviously.  But hey...this can still be quite an event if it unfolds right(I know you know this), but that’s why I’m not all in just yet..just cautiously watching...long way to go.

[SnowHole413]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one of those events where if you are near sea level, you want to be east of the ORH hills.

Great another shaft job for the valley. If Berkshires jack that will be good enough for me

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like we would do well in these setups too...gradually sloping up in elevation into the foothills downstream of the easterly flow. The firehose a few years ago was a little too far south as was Dec 92. I was in Auburn, NH for that and recall a sloppy dumping of about 10”. I wanna say it went from rain to snow to rain, but don’t hold me to that...I was only 14.

I agree, I'd like your area but think a more ESE would maximize the gradual upslope than a ENE flow.  Still the gradual rise into the Whites there seems like it would be prime.

Even though I know orographics well, it still boggles my mind that such small terrain changes can lead to big differences in a larger synoptic scale event.  How just a very subtle downhill over a decent distance can rob so much moisture.  It makes sense up here when you see the 4,000ft ridgelines that drop 3,500 vertical feet in like a couple miles but the gradual nature of it in SNE is crazy how big of a difference it can make.  Must be seeder feeder processes on the upslope side...it's not like drastic lift such as running into a wall of high terrain.  All gradual relatively speaking and yet has a huge difference in low level moisture profiles.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh I hear ya..but that’s not in the cards obviously.  But hey...this can still be quite an event if it unfolds right(I know you know this), but that’s why I’m not all in just yet..just cautiously watching...long way to go.

I am far from all in. In fact, I’m folding every hand until Wed night. 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like we would do well in these setups too...gradually sloping up in elevation into the foothills downstream of the easterly flow. The firehose a few years ago was a little too far south as was Dec 92. I was in Auburn, NH for that and recall a sloppy dumping of about 10”. I wanna say it went from rain to snow to rain, but don’t hold me to that...I was only 14.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I am far from all in. In fact, I’m folding every hand until Wed night. 

Thata boy...me too lol...not getting my hopes up...yet...

At least we have something to track.

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy easterly flow distribution to the QPF... speed convergence over Eastern Mass into the ORH Hills and then also goes ape-sh*t over the eastern slopes of the Catskills.  That area of the Catskills is outside this regional forum but often gets destroyed in these events.  They had 20-40" in Dec 1992 while ALB had 6". 

This is just a 24-hour snapshot...crazy.

99 problems but QPF ain’t one.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said:

Great another shaft job for the valley. If Berkshires jack that will be good enough for me

It's not out of the question that you get an Eastern jack somewhere E of Worcester then the other qpf max is way W into upstate NY. The GFS map had that depiction.  Too far away to worry though. 

Codfishsnowman will be seething as somebody 50mi from him pulls 5x his snow totals. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree, I'd like your area but think a more ESE would maximize the gradual upslope than a ENE flow.  Still the gradual rise into the Whites there seems like it would be prime.

Even though I know orographics well, it still boggles my mind that such small terrain changes can lead to big differences in a larger synoptic scale event.  How just a very subtle downhill over a decent distance can rob so much moisture.  It makes sense up here when you see the 4,000ft ridgelines that drop 3,500 vertical feet in like a couple miles but the gradual nature of it in SNE is crazy how big of a difference it can make.  Must be seeder feeder processes on the upslope side...it's not like drastic lift such as running into a wall of high terrain.  All gradual relatively speaking and yet has a huge difference in low level moisture profiles.

Always amazed me too how those little 750 ft hills in NW RI NE Ct maximize qpf. David Valle of NWS wrote an excellent paper on the process.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I figure I'm good for about another 20-25" this season....Hopefully in one sittimg.

[CoastalWx]

It takes me three months to get 4” of

precip in the summer lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's not out of the question that you get an Eastern jack somewhere E of Worcester then the other qpf max is way W into upstate NY. The GFS map had that depiction.  Too far away to worry though. 

Codfishsnowman will be seething as somebody 50mi from him pulls 5x his snow totals. 

No way the Berks don't max out in this setup

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It takes me three months to get 4” of

precip in the summer lol. 

Remember when it was going to be a dry warm Morch....

[HoarfrostHubb]

Question....Ray and Will mentioned that models will under-do the qpf in these setups,    I’m seeing pretty big qpf already modeled,   Is it that they don’t distribute it widely enough or could there be more than 4” qpf (hypothetically).

I’m not sure if I’m asking it in the right way

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember when it was going to be a dry warm Morch....

Second half still could be

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Always amazed me too how those little 750 ft hills in NW RI NE Ct maximize qpf. David Valle of NWS wrote an excellent paper on the process.

I'd love to read that if you have a link or name of paper I can look for.

Everyone knows I love my orographics and it's so crazy to think that say the elevation where I live that feels so minuscule (750ft) up here can rip out that much more QPF than say someone 400ft lower.  I mean that type of elevation change is nothing in the grand scheme of things but it gets the job done in a big way sometimes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Question....Ray and Will mentioned that models will under-do the qpf in these setups,    I’m seeing pretty big qpf already modeled,   Is it that they don’t distribute it widely enough or could there be more than 4” qpf (hypothetically).

I’m not sure if I’m asking it in the right way

Could be both...reassess closer in imo

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Question....Ray and Will mentioned that models will under-do the qpf in these setups,    I’m seeing pretty big qpf already modeled,   Is it that they don’t distribute it widely enough or could there be more than 4” qpf (hypothetically).

I’m not sure if I’m asking it in the right way

My gut says they aren't under-estimating the QPF... I think there are certain runs you look at and say yeah that deep easterly flow will bring more than 0.25" every 6 hours but the models are spitting out over 1.0" in 6-hours in some cases.  I have a hard time believing that's "low" in a winter storm.

I think if we were looking at a lot of panels of 0.1-0.25" or something then they would be way low but you just know the depictions sometimes where you are like, that's low. 

I mean based on these global runs, a NAM output would be like 6" of QPF, lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Second half still could be

With any luck.

Give me 2', then call it a season.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

The 92 storm had nothing in Springfield and Agawam where I had an office, drove home to 18 inches and made the mistake of trying to go going to Worcester, never made it, trucks were jackknifed on the road, traffic was stalled, had to be snowing 3+ an hour while I sat in traffic in Auburn. Hope this one's more widespread if it happens.

I lived in Bristol Ct for that one and had a good 10 inches of heavy wet snow but years ago when I first got the KU book I saw this area had nothing or next to nothing, I drove up to Wolcott CT the day after the storm and there was about 18 inches otg (i am sure it had settled some too)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

My gut says they aren't under-estimating the QPF... I think there are certain runs you look at and say yeah that deep easterly flow will bring more than 0.25-0.4" every 6 hours but the models are spitting out over 1.0" in 6-hours in some cases.  I have a hard time believing that's "low" in a winter storm.

I think if we were looking at a lot of panels of 0.1-0.25" or something then they would be way low but you just know the depictions sometimes where you are like, that's low. 

I mean based on these global runs, a NAM output would be like 6" of QPF, lol.

Well, the majority of run will probably have under 4" of qpf...not every run will underestimate 

[powderfreak]

The one thing the highly marginal air mass does though is increase the amount of water the atmosphere can hold.  Different than if this were a 15F air mass with -10C at H85.  These near freezing isothermal systems can bring the juice where ever the best forcing sets up. 

Hopefully we see the thermal profile cool a bit as currently the 925mb temps are quite warm... that's why you are seeing like that EURO output of ORH at 1,000ft doing back-to-back days of like 36/32 and 35/33 during the heavy precip.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With any luck.

Give me 2', then call it a season.

I still would not be shocked if the next 10 to 12 days are cash-outs and then head to Vegas

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Several mentions of SST’s being important for this—and March being a favored month (for obvious reasons).

I took a look at some of the buoy reports from Boston to Portland ME, and sst’s are around 40 which appeared quite warm to me—basically on par with what I was accustomed to while living on LI. 

Checked the anomalies and this makes sense. Perhaps an early January ocean SST-wise versus early March? Warmer BL temps, higher qpf amounts? 

this is a great post, I have seen ssts much colder...a few years ago south of BI was 31-32f...the ssts are colder than dec but really are just about average at best