February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[cut]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/immense-multifaceted-storm-grows-more.html

Nice write up, I am invested fully.

[tamarack]

Glad it's far out - lots of time for change, like seeing today's 06z GFS with 2"+ qpf for Augusta and 12z down to <0.1".  More to come, I'm sure.

[JKEisMan]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We number 50 please

Actually, I officially change my vote!

#50 doubles totals with snow the following week.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Shall we take this discussion over to the thread that Tip has started?

[codfishsnowman]

feb 2010 was hiddeous down here....I don't know about this one, even if it goes south it may not be that amazing for snow lovers but I am sure there will be 50 foot seas south of bid and mtp

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don't be surprised if guidance gets a pretty good handle on this relatively early in the game.....different ballgame than that fast, progressive nina vibe that we have had.

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

feb 2010 was hiddeous down here....I don't know about this one, even if it goes south it may not be that amazing for snow lovers but I am sure there will be 50 foot seas south of bid and mtp

The 92 storm had nothing in Springfield and Agawam where I had an office, drove home to 18 inches and made the mistake of trying to go going to Worcester, never made it, trucks were jackknifed on the road, traffic was stalled, had to be snowing 3+ an hour while I sat in traffic in Auburn. Hope this one's more widespread if it happens.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z looks warmer... especially east

[Damage In Tolland]

Wednesday looks like a Tippy bluebird burn napes day of 55-60 and by Thursday night we’re pounding snows 

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't be surprised if guidance gets a pretty good handle on this relatively early in the game.....different ballgame than that fast, progressive nina vibe that we have had.

Thank Ullr...I hope 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wednesday looks like a Tippy bluebird burn napes day of 55-60 and by Thursday night we’re pounding snows 

Hopefully you don't look at the GFS again this week

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z looks warmer... especially east

Man, for day 6?

Awesome consistency..we take.

[8611Blizz]

I do hope the models are correct earlier than they have been this year.  If by Monday afternoon I'm looking at 3-5" inches of slop than the rest of the week will be productive.

[jbenedet]

Several mentions of SST’s being important for this—and March being a favored month (for obvious reasons).

I took a look at some of the buoy reports from Boston to Portland ME, and sst’s are around 40 which appeared quite warm to me—basically on par with what I was accustomed to while living on LI. 

Checked the anomalies and this makes sense. Perhaps an early January ocean SST-wise versus early March? Warmer BL temps, higher qpf amounts? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good,  so the cf will be here and not KBEV

[CoastalWx]

GEFS look nice.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good,  so the cf will be here and not KBEV

This is one of Those deals that likely won’t have one. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is one of Those deals that likely won’t have one. 

If we have a hp nosing down, why not?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we have a hp nosing down, why not?

There is little  temp gradient,  especially at the start. Probably the difference between 36 and Like 31 or 32. 

[CoastalWx]

 Deeper layer east to Northeast flow too. 

[CoastalWx]

 I think it’s more of does your trajectory bring down air from Maine  versus marine flow off the water. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 Deeper layer east to Northeast flow too. 

Yea, I get that...it won't be represented by a pronounced thermal gradient, but I would think with a highly we'd have some ageo drain.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I get that...it won't be represented by a pronounced thermal gradient, but I would think with a highly we'd have some ageo drain.

 Yeah I mean I could see some convergence.  I think for you though, your latitude will help with Northeast flow right out of Maine.  Anyways I hate commenting on something so far out, but just saying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 Yeah I mean I could see some convergence.  I think for you though, your latitude will help with Northeast flow right out of Maine.  Anyways I hate commenting on something so far out, but just saying.

Its all hypothetical....model output.

Yea, I envision tucky.

[powderfreak]

Crazy easterly flow distribution to the QPF... speed convergence over Eastern Mass into the ORH Hills and then also goes ape-sh*t over the eastern slopes of the Catskills.  That area of the Catskills is outside this regional forum but often gets destroyed in these events.  They had 20-40" in Dec 1992 while ALB had 6". 

This is just a 24-hour snapshot...crazy.

[Ginx snewx]

Intensity driven flip for any one without Elevation, matters much more this storm than a typical Noreaster. Need a ENE wind with some advecting lower DPs. If this follows the 92 type storms there will be downsloping precip mins. Highly favors any rise in elevation. The marine air influence of a due East wind would be a worst case scenario way west . Appears that with a deepening 5H below us with 8h and 7h below us as modeled we should have ENE to NE winds at all levels, just need the Omega 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This one of those events where if you are near sea level, you want to be east of the ORH hills.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one of those events where if you are near sea level, you want to be east of the ORH hills.

Yea, dont worry...we are used to it out here. Get shafted in all directions. Then say “Thank you sir, may I have another.” 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, dont worry...we are used to it out here. Get shafted in all directions. Then say “Thank you sir, may I have another.” 

You are like 500', no?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its all hypothetical....model output.

Yea, I envision tucky.

I guess it’s all about where this setups up for occlusion. Just east of AC and it has a boxing day feel to it, or right over LI and its March 01ish.