February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[CoastalWx]

Another threat a few days later. 

[CoastalWx]

I purposely forgot 92.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Models will underestimate QPF in this scenario.

Yes, esp in the eastern facing slopes...but even the coastal plain gets speed convergence that the models underestimate when you have these huge firehose easterly flow events. Even in the Mar 2013 event, the models were trying to give like 0.25-0.35" every 6 hours but it turned out to be a lot heavier than that.

This is even an better setup than 2013 from a QPF standpoint. The bigger question will be the mid-level temps, but the polar high is in a good spot to advect that drier air into the system. This is of course this goes as modeled, which is obviously a dangerous assumption still. The blocking though might be starting to stabilize the solutions a little bit. If the solutions don't change too much for another 2-3 runs, then it's a pretty good sign we are honing in on some goalposts. We are starting to see fewer obnoxiously suppressed solutions now, and fewer storms that track up dendrite's fanny like the GFS was doing more consistently a day or two ago.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...Just saying.

Good spot for you it seems this time.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Took a drive from Raynham Where we had 2" or so to Diamond Hill, RI. Amazing that last few miles up to base of hill. 

 

Pine Top!

[CoastalWx]

I think I would like to see the mean a little north too. It would pay to be in he heart of the firehose to help with some dynamic cooling and QPF. Sort of a give in take with temps at 850.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, esp in the eastern facing slopes...but even the coastal plain gets speed convergence that the models underestimate when you have these huge firehose easterly flow events. Even in the Mar 2013 event, the models were trying to give like 0.25-0.35" every 6 hours but it turned out to be a lot heavier than that.

This is even an better setup than 2013 from a QPF standpoint. The bigger question will be the mid-level temps, but the polar high is in a good spot to advect that drier air into the system. This is of course this goes as modeled, which is obviously a dangerous assumption still. The blocking though might be starting to stabilize the solutions a little bit. If the solutions don't change too much for another 2-3 runs, then it's a pretty good sign we are honing in on some goalposts. We are starting to see fewer obnoxiously suppressed solutions now, and fewer storms that track up dendrite's fanny like the GFS was doing more consistently a day or two ago.

How big of a role do you think elevation will play? Just wondering how much I'm going to wish I still lived in Watertown at around 700' as opposed to the sub-500' place I live now.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think as is it’s mainly snow even in the valley, but elevation is going to be a big asset 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

How big of a role do you think elevation will play? Just wondering how much I'm going to wish I still lived in Watertown at around 700' as opposed to the sub-500' place I live now.

It will prob play a role...a little early to tell how much role it will play though. It helps that it is early March and not December when we have deep layer easterly flow, so that should lessen the impact. Also, this high looks to be in a better position than the Dec '92 storm...more north of us rather than sliding off Nova Scotia. So we may have the sfc flow turned a little more ENE/NE rather than E/ENE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think ne MA is going to clean up in this event given the position of the high.

All about the mid levels........fall rates are going to be great, so we won't see a repeat of last April 1.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It will prob play a role...a little early to tell how much role it will play though. It helps that it is early March and not December when we have deep layer easterly flow, so that should lessen the impact. Also, this high looks to be in a better position than the Dec '92 storm...more north of us rather than sliding off Nova Scotia. So we may have the sfc flow turned a little more ENE/NE rather than E/ENE.

Is there any chance this goes powder or no matter the solution is interior still paste?

[CoastalWx]

Way too early for details 

[Hoth]

Tip made this point in the so-far overlooked thread, which I thought salient and am curious as to what other mets think.

"One thing that is interesting is that the 500 mb heights deepen some 6 to 10 DAM as the axis passes quintessentially underneath LI by about 2 or 3 Deg latitude, descending to 528!  That's nooooot usually a rain event at those depths - red flag."

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

eps mean looks good but majority of members are close in and with a marginal airmass.......still good to see hits though, long ways to go to nitpick yet.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Tip made this point in the so-far overlooked thread, which I thought salient and am curious as to what other mets think.

"One thing that is interesting is that the 500 mb heights deepen some 6 to 10 DAM as the axis passes quintessentially underneath LI by about 2 or 3 Deg latitude, descending to 528!  That's nooooot usually a rain event at those depths - red flag."

We mentioned it last night 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there any chance this goes powder or no matter the solution is interior still paste?

Wha Scott said...too early...but yeah, it could def go to powder at some point. Even Dec '92 did eventually away from immediate coast.

 

This thing could still wind up as no big deal too...gotta remember we're still over 5 days out.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We mentioned it last night 

Ah, thanks. I'll look back.

[Hoth]

I vote for ensemble member 8. Edit, make that 31. Wow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I vote for ensemble member 8.

I havent seen it but we tend to vote the same party on coastals. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I havent seen it but we tend to vote the same party on coastals. 

There are a lot of nice solutions in the ensembles. I want this thing to come south a bit, because I anticipate one of those annoying last minute north corrections.

[cut]

Working on Olympics and have not had time to check this. Going to Okemo on Friday - it appears this storm will have an impact in a good way correct? Any 30 second synopsis would be great as I am not able to go back and read thread. Thanks to anyone that will help a brother out.

[JKEisMan]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I havent seen it but we tend to vote the same party on coastals. 

Vote with me for #33.

[WinterWolf]

There’s a lot of blocking...this may still creep south some.  Again...keeping expectations tempered for now...this has a long ways to go for sure...could completely fall apart for most everybody still...we’ve seen that happen more than once before.

[NorEastermass128]

22 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Vote with me for #33.

Heck no

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Heck no

LOL less snow in Haverhill than Wareham? I love clown maps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/immense-multifaceted-storm-grows-more.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think as is it’s mainly snow even in the valley, but elevation is going to be a big asset 

I think elevation is much more significant west of the ORH hills.

[Ginx snewx]

We number 50 please

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wha Scott said...too early...but yeah, it could def go to powder at some point. Even Dec '92 did eventually away from immediate coast.

 

This thing could still wind up as no big deal too...gotta remember we're still over 5 days out.

I'd watch for trends southward, only to be somewhat negated by late correction back north.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/immense-multifaceted-storm-grows-more.html

Lol...shunt

Anyway, I look forward to your analysis of this upcoming week