February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Very similar to 3/01.  I’d feel good north of the pike right now.

Please no

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Very similar to 3/01.  I’d feel good north of the pike right now.

Schwoegler calling for feet and feet?

[Baroclinic Zone]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn't sweat the details. But I think people were prematurely disrobing last night.

Thinks still look like a disjointed hot mess.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Great visions at THIS lead time. Lets revisit this premonition on Friday.

[ScituateWX]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also I am probably one of two people who find the wind and cstl flooding interesting, but that could be a big part of this. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Thinks still look like a disjointed hot mess.

Good blocking throughout but in the end, still a fumble to end it?

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Great visions at THIS lead time. Lets revisit this premonition on Friday.

Unless this thing comes off Atlantic City and stalls southeast of Montaulk, I suspect I'll be living vicariously through you inland folks. I had not looked closely at thermals yesterday. Still will be fun to track this week. Not boring.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Very similar to 3/01.  I’d feel good north of the pike right now.

Some guidance has shown a more East west gradient to snowfall. We’ve seen it before, but it’s been a while. Something where Eastern ma rains and SW CT snows.

North of the pike is better, but I don’t think they are out of the woods by any stretch. Several runs over the last couple and illustrate how this could be a turd there as well. Respect the suck airmass.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good blocking throughout but in the end, still a fumble to end it?

We probably have at least a few chances through St Patty's Day. Ironically the low level profile would get better heading into March as a deeper trough and colder air get established. Once again, I hope nobody expects to cash in on every event.

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good blocking throughout but in the end, still a fumble to end it?

On the table for sure.  If the blocking is to far west we rot under it.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some guidance has shown a more East west gradient to snowfall. We’ve seen it before, but it’s been a while. Something where Eastern ma rains and SW CT snows.

North of the pike is better, but I don’t think they are out of the woods by any stretch. Several runs over the last couple and illustrate how this could be a turd there as well. Respect the suck airmass.

Too much focus on that.   If it’s a big stemwinder it will do it’s dirty work.   4/1/97 had antecedent temps near 70.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Too much focus on that.   If it’s a big stemwinder it will do it’s dirty work.   4/1/97 had antecedent temps near 70.

Cold front really helped advect a good airmass in though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Too much focus on that.   If it’s a big stemwinder it will do it’s dirty work.   4/1/97 had antecedent temps near 70.

I think Brett was like 2-3yrs old for that. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Very similar to 3/01.  I’d feel good north of the pike right now.

Oh' how we pray. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Cold front really helped advect a good airmass in though.

It was mid 40s when rain began.

[weathafella]

I just see so many similarities to March 2001. This one may be a tad warmer but trust me, dryslot isn’t getting a rainstorm from this.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was mid 40s when rain began.

But plenty cold just off the deck is what I mean. And you advected in colder temps as the storm went on. March 2013 did that too. GYX was like -8C at 900 at 00z Apr 1 1997.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just see so many similarities to March 2001. This one may be a tad warmer but trust me, dryslot isn’t getting a rainstorm from this.

Late Feb 2010 is closest analog 

[CoastalWx]

Brett would have been on fire on 4/1/97. He would have bitched and bitched the aftn of 3/31 as Taunton had PLSN for a few hours while it snowed a few miles north. Only to have like 26" by lunchtime 4/1.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just see so many similarities to March 2001. This one may be a tad warmer but trust me, dryslot isn’t getting rainstorm from this.

Extremely forgettable storm.  Just had to look it up, LOL.

[CoastalWx]

It's always good to see a Tolland screw job.

[Tom12309]

My banter contribution to this:  we're trying to get out of Dodge early Saturday morning on an airplane.  I think I know exactly what the weather is going to be doing!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I think Brett was like 2-3yrs old for that. 

 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Brett would have been on fire on 4/1/97. He would have bitched and bitched the aftn of 3/31 as Taunton had PLSN for a few hours while it snowed a few miles north. Only to have like 26" by lunchtime 4/1.

Ha... had just turned 3. Will be turning 24 next Friday, hopefully this has legs for my birthday 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'll be honest, I'm not a fan of the ULL look on the EPS.  The heights over Greenland are building back west and south as this storm tries to come in.  Suppression or occluded mess are definitely on the table as is a hit.  We need to see that look change some over the next week.

[dendrite]

March 01...good times.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010405124025/http://www.wright-weather.com:80/cgi-bin-bb/forumdisplay.cgi?action=topics&number=11&forum=Forecasting+Discussion&DaysPrune=30&startpoint=800

[Baroclinic Zone]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We probably have at least a few chances through St Patty's Day. Ironically the low level profile would get better heading into March as a deeper trough and colder air get established. Once again, I hope nobody expects to cash in on every event.

I agree with this sentiment too. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

March 01...good times.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010405124025/http://www.wright-weather.com:80/cgi-bin-bb/forumdisplay.cgi?action=topics&number=11&forum=Forecasting+Discussion&DaysPrune=30&startpoint=800

I did not get the 30-35" SNH got, but it ended on a nice note down in GHG. About 10" there.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll be honest, I'm not a fan of the ULL look on the EPS.  The heights over Greenland are building back west and south as this storm tries to come in.  Suppression or occluded mess are definitely on the table as is a hit.  We need to see that look change some over the next week.

I'd rather risk that then trying to do it with a weaker block or no block. Without it this is a 55F cutter. 

Id rather see it a bit squashed at day 6. This will actually prob have a lot of latent heat down south this time of year from convection. So beware the ticks north late. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I did not get the 30-35" SNH got, but it ended on a nice note down in GHG. About 10" there.

heh...hooralph and zeus

https://web.archive.org/web/20010410194510/http://www.wright-weather.com:80/ubb/Forum11/HTML/002257.html