February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not bad agreement at day 6...that's the point.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

As it wet bulbs down yes.

Rapid flip. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea with that look I wouldn't worry about rain the newly minted Southbury Wxcentre

You’re centre has been around longer, more experience....I trust it’s output. 

[dryslot]

Some have precip type issues, Others have qpf issues............lol

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Rapid flip. 

At 994 or 964?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re centre has been around longer, more experience....I trust it’s output. 

Iconnic

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

At 994 or 964?

Models always have precip issues with deep 5h and bombing systems. If I was to guess today this has tremendous East inflow Pete should get destroyed

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Models always have precip issues with deep 5h and bombing systems. If I was to guess today this has tremendous East inflow Pete should get destroyed

That will stack up on the east slopes, What does Bob think...............

[Ginx snewx]

Models also occlude too rapidly. If this trend of a closed deep 520 ish 5H continues, look for a couple of things. Colder thermals, more expansive precip and slower movement.  Buckle up

[40/70 Benchmark]

The firehouse events are the most prolific qpf producers... glad it's not December,  though.

[CoastalWx]

The antecedent airmass definitely is a concern. You can’t just ignore it and say bowling ball under us equals snow. It’s pulling in marginal air right through 850. Im speaking verbatim on guidance.

[Damage In Tolland]

I just wonder if some elevation could help?

[NorEastermass128]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The antecedent airmass definitely is a concern. You can’t just ignore it and say bowling ball under us equals snow. It’s pulling in marginal air right through 850. Im speaking verbatim on guidance.

Pete B heard enough. C-1” that washes away inside 495. Lol

[moneypitmike]

I'm watching carefully......I'm slated to fly into PWM at 11:00a.m. on Friday morning.  Already investigating other options should the need arise.

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

euro looks wierd. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of late Feb 2010 similarities starting to show up with the end of week storm.. Up and in..Especially Berks west

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of late Feb 2010 similarities starting to show up with the end of week storm.. Up and in..Especially Berks west

We retro-shunt?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We retro-shunt?

I think you're gonna want to have elevation for this, but especially for W NE. Central and E areas my not have that much precipitation

[ORH_wxman]

Elevation def might help in this. But way too early to be talking about where qpf is. Just look at the spread on ensembles of where the storm deepens and the orientation. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Anyone from interior MD/VA through ME should stay tuned to our forecast, lots of uncertainty.

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

euro looks wierd. 

The way the s/w evolves is another red flag. If it's like the euro, the brunt of the forcing is west of the low. So in theory, if you want the euro, you'd be favoring something east of Chatham. Anyways, not that details matter this far out, but the euro depiction is not a firehose, but rather a blow your stack and done, west of the low. The EPS sort of hints at this too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Elevation def might help in this. But way too early to be talking about where qpf is. Just look at the spread on ensembles of where the storm deepens and the orientation. 

You can always lock in a scenario at d6 and change it daily.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The way the s/w evolves is another red flag. If it's like the euro, the brunt of the forcing is west of the low. So in theory, if you want the euro, you'd be favoring something east of Chatham. Anyways, not that details matter this far out, but the euro depiction is not a firehose, but rather a blow your stack and done, west of the low. The EPS sort of hints at this too.

Makes sense. And me missing another 2-3FT to my left by 25 miles, again, also makes sense....theoretically.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Makes sense. And me missing another 2-3FT to my left by 25 miles, again, also makes sense....theoretically.

I wouldn't sweat the details. But I think people were prematurely disrobing last night.

[CoastalWx]

Also I am probably one of two people who find the wind and cstl flooding interesting, but that could be a big part of this. 

[blizzard24]

their will be cold air for the storm number one and it will off the coast moving around or stalled too but it will be cold storm . i say every one  just inland and near the big  cities should be already for big snows . .

[weathafella]

Very similar to 3/01.  I’d feel good north of the pike right now.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also I am probably one of two people who find the wind and cstl flooding interesting, but that could be a big part of this. 

The thaumaturge of tides?

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Elevation def might help in this. But way too early to be talking about where qpf is. Just look at the spread on ensembles of where the storm deepens and the orientation. 

With everything backing east to west with block you can see what’s gonna happen. Rain for the coast in a west moving band that slowly moves west, becomes snow in the hills and then the band rots in ENY down to NJ and dumps 12-24. We get 3-6 interior hills and are left with wet flurries for 2 days . And there’s a few waves and winds out east

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The thaumaturge of tides?

There are many on edge after Jan. At least that was a wake up call to those who blew off sea level rise.