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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2018 at 6:09 PM, dryslot said:

Pine trees that look like they were 5' tall then you realize that was the top of a 20'....................:lol:

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My first year in N. Maine, I led our 3-man boundary maintenance crew in late March. (1st man locates line and cuts brush, 2nd finishes brushing and blazes trees, 3rd runs the paint can.)  With 4-6' of snowpack, walking between semi-hidden fir saplings could be hazardous, and when I'd disappear, my axe-man (native of Riviere-Bleu, PQ) would say in his best Franglais: "You make foxhole for German army!"  Must be even more fun when one is on a sled.

And wow, is the GFS wet, though mainly out past 100 hr.  Hope that means white as well.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Euro shows more than that... 

It shows a problem with a handling of the whole NAO construct.  It's breaking it down fast ... too fast for the ideas folks have in mind, really. 

The retrogression from southern Greenland to almost purely integrated into the mid-latitudes over SE Canada in just 2.5 to 3 days is pretty f'n fantastic for one, but... the model is not showing much interest in this thing really being a pattern drive on this run. You know ..in the fun spirit of anthropomorphism ...it's like it has to admit that it has to deal with it and is trying to throw it away as quickly as possible.    

I will say though ..I have noticed this subtly getting more obvious spanning every cycle now for two days - this tendency to shrink the longevity.  

Sometimes, .. you see this happen. Then, the block ends up more like the original appeal and lasting longer.  Could see that happening. The speed in which the model moves that block en masse so fast across the N arc of the Atlantic Basin seems correctable.  If not, what you got there is a bully block careening SW and mashing the storm tack too far S, followed by spring pattern in the extended... replete with the spaghetti flow type that features weak gradients. 

That part of my sardonic humor last night that has some merit (all humor does ...) is that it's all fragile in the guidance.  And it should be... it's the f'n over-rated index of all indexes in play here. 

The upshot is just that, the uncertainty.  The block could correct, and a slower, pinned bomb could easily still be in there -

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2018 at 7:09 PM, tamarack said:

My first year in N. Maine, I led our 3-man boundary maintenance crew in late March. (1st man locates line and cuts brush, 2nd finishes brushing and blazes trees, 3rd runs the paint can.)  With 4-6' of snowpack, walking between semi-hidden fir saplings could be hazardous, and when I'd disappear, my axe-man (native of Riviere-Bleu, PQ) would say in his best Franglais: "You make foxhole for German army!"  Must be even more fun when one is on a sled.

And wow, is the GFS wet, though mainly out past 100 hr.  Hope that means white as well.

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lol, Had a similar experience on the ME/NH border in the back country, We had stopped after dog sledding in our gas to ride the back country and one of the guys we were with steps off his sled and just vanishes in the 8' pack we were in, It took a bit of time to dig him out, And verbatim on that GFS, You would pull ahead of the Maine contingency on snow.......................;)

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2018 at 7:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro shows more than that... 

It shows a problem with a handling of the whole NAO construct.  It's breaking it down fast ... too fast for the ideas folks have in mind, really. 

The retrogression from southern Greenland to almost purely integrated into the mid-latitudes over SE Canada in just 2.5 to 3 days is pretty f'n fantastic for one, but... the model is not showing much interest in this thing really being a pattern drive on this run. You know ..in the fun spirit of anthropomorphism ...it's like it has to admit that it has to deal with it and is trying to throw it away as quickly as possible.    

I will say though ..I have noticed this subtly getting more obvious spanning every cycle now for two days - this tendency to shrink the longevity.  

Sometimes, .. you see this happen. Then, the block ends up more like the original appeal and lasting longer.  Could see that happening. The speed in which the model moves that block en masse so fast across the N arc of the Atlantic Basin seems correctable.  If not, what you got there is a bully block careening SW and mashing the storm tack too far S, followed by spring pattern in the extended... replete with the spaghetti flow type that features weak gradients. 

That part of my sardonic humor last night that has some merit (all humor does ...) is that it's all fragile in the guidance.  And it should be... it's the f'n over-rated index of all indexes in play here. 

The upshot is just that, the uncertainty.  The block could correct, and a slower, pinned bomb could easily still be in there -

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Its probably breaking it down too fast.

Usually rushed the front and back end.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2018 at 7:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100% agreement.

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As far as specific entities for people to bulge panties over ... it may not be something that shows up until Monday or early next week. 

What that whole mess is that extends from roughly PA to  some 1000 nautical miles ESE of NS really is, is a modeled powder keg region.  Basically ... a bastion of enhanced probability, one that is in wait of something to be inserted into it - although, that's also predicated on the idea that the operational Euro is too fast in breaking it down/displacing the blocking features...  If this run were right, that window of opportunity, albeit valid, invalidates too soon before anything can - heh. 

we'll see 

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2018 at 7:21 PM, dryslot said:

lol, Had a similar experience on the ME/NH border in the back country, We had stopped after dog sledding in our gas to ride the back country and one of the guys we were with steps off his sled and just vanishes in the 8' pack we were in, It took a bit of time to dig him out, And verbatim on that GFS, You would pull ahead of the Maine contingency on snow.......................;)

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Long way to go - would need another run like March 2014, when I had 30.8" (and Farmington 38.6") while LEW/AUG and points south were mainly 10" or less.  Would not wish that on those folks.  (Though I would not mind something like Feb 22-23, 2009, when I got 24.5" and IIRC you had about 15" of paste.   :weenie:)

A rider-rookie co-worker when I was up north got his sled stuck on the low side of an unplowed road, stepped off that side and narrowly missed clipping his chin on the foot rail.  Then he felt the ditch water flowing into his boots...  Fortunately he was accompanied by an experienced Ft. Kent native to help get man and machine back on the trail.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2018 at 11:27 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Any concern how marginal the cool airmass will be?

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I think something like the EPS is just fine. You have a good high funneling colder and drier air. I can’t even entertain the temp aspect of this since the pattern itself is all over the place on guidance. 

I’ll reiterate again about not hitting on every event. If this doesn’t work out, it looks a little more favorable later first week of March and beyond. 

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