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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like a good shot of 3-6"+ of snow inland with a mix to rain on the coast up here into CNE and some of NW MA.

Snow to ice in far northern parts of CNE and southern parts of NNE, is my guess. Most of NH and ME will stay all snow, and then maybe brief drizzle in low to mid 30's as we dry. out...

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm, there is no direct pathway between the AO and the SE ridge in terms of forcing, tho. That's an indirect causality there... with perhaps more than a couple moments of indirection.  

One thing ... you may know this already but, the AO and NAO merely share domain space.  The overlap is ...perhaps 1/3 to 2/5ths the planetary coordinates.  This is true all around the hemispheric 'cap' of the AO index's domain space; the EPO also shares domains space similarly ..roughly, similarly.

All these teleconnectors are, are regions that are identified as having statistical correlation to other regions.  -NAO "tends" to mean higher heights over Greenland, ...and counterbalancing for mass conservation, you have a negative regions - in total = 0 loss.  That's really why the correlations even exist... because mass cannot be lost or destroyed.. it's merely moving from point A to B in three dimensional space.

Example: You can have a singular node/blocking ridge feature, with a pearled out string of counter-balancing negatives that individually ... one is not sufficiently negative as the ridge is positive, but... 0 loss is achieved in the aggregate - i.e., all of them together  ( -L1 + -L2 + -L3 + -L4) + (+H1) = 0  ... or vice versa, (-L1) + ( +H1 + + H2 ...) = 0.  The left side of that equation is the constant motion of the three-d mentioned above.

So, bringing this home... the AO can be negative and never feature much impact locally to our hemisphere, because all it's counter-balancing phenomenon didn't happen to evolve on our side.  More over, the NAO could go through a negative phase state, and the AO can conceivably stay positive at times ...due to the fact that they only share space.  So you can't really "assume" a -AO will "combine" with a -NAO to battle the SE ridge... that's not really how it works.  And in fact, the SE ridge can remain in place while a -NAO evolves and all it does is compress and blast the hell out of the wind field at mid levels from Texas to Bermuda... .. The SE ridge is really put there by the Pacific for that source of headache tele's ..

 

Thanks

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