February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dont see a +pna until later in month when the nao vanishes. 

Imagine we are this close to seasonal average and get shut down with a historic NAO/AO. I guess its possible. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

Missed the point.  He said many coastals.   1888 is extremely anomalous-once a century.

No sh it but we were talking about 1888

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Imagine we are this close to seasonal average and get shut down with a historic NAO/AO. I guess its possible. 

Anything is possible but with a -pna, unlikely every system hits a wall at Stamford. 

[dryslot]

Swiss icy knife.

[Damage In Tolland]

No EPS posts . No good cheer 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No EPS posts . No good cheer 

I looked, you want to know what they had?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked, you want to know what they had?

I saw. Tons of spread , including shunts 

[SnowHole413]

 I don’t about you guys but this time just feels different, my gut feeling is in the next 3-4 days models will show a major east coast snowstorm. They all seem to have a major storm early March but can’t seem to put all the pieces together, but run after run after run it is still there. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Powderboy413 said:

 I don’t about you guys but this time just feels different, my gut feeling is in the next 3-4 days models will show a major east coast snowstorm. They all seem to have a major storm early March but can’t seem to put all the pieces together, but run after run after run it is still there. 

Given your name and avatar, I am shocked you feel that way.

[dryslot]

Congrats BWI.

[moneypitmike]

Right where we want it.  I’m flying into pwm Friday morning.  Stay clear until then.

[wx2fish]

Nam looks like a decent period of sleet at the start Sunday. Those surface temps are awful chilly once is flips. Hours of 33F at MHT and ORH

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congrats BWI.

I love how you keep saying this.....the reverse pysch in full affect.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I love how you keep saying this.....the reverse pysch in full affect.

I guess you didn't see the 0z EPS.............lol

[Damage In Tolland]

The shunt is likely 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

I guess you didn't see the 0z EPS.............lol

I did. looked nothing like 12z op which is a shame but we haz a few days to turn it around.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I did. looked nothing like 12z op which is a shame but we haz a few days to turn it around.

One thing i can say its not going to whiff to the north, I've paid good money to see this movie before only to be disappointed with the ending.

[WintersComing]

Days and days of snow....

[CoastalWx]

Sunday morning is looking more interesting north of the pike into SNH. That is a real cold layer in the 950-900 layer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Sell the shunt. That was due to thermal profiles. 

I think the idea of an occlusion south of us is more likely than a shunt.

CT will probably be in a good spot....shocking, I know.

This is why I like the RNA....have the thing get going above the 40th parallel, and there is less that can go wrong regarding track, and rate of maturation.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the idea of an occlusion south of us is more likely than a shunt.

CT will probably be in a good spot....shocking, I know.

This is why I like the RNA....have the thing get going above the 40th parallel, and there is less that can go wrong regarding track, and rate of maturation.

I approve this message. Really interesting period coming up. Hoping for a crawling monster before we move into sping.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Hoth said:

I approve this message. Really interesting period coming up. Hoping for a crawling monster before we move into sping.

Miller B of bust.

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Miller B of bust.

I fully expect to see some great model porn over the next week. Whether we ultimately get blue balled or not, that's another matter altogether.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We should start seeing somekind of trends over the weekend imo. blocking episodes usually feature ‘less’ uncertainty but if it is Miller B type stuff, that still has decent spread even outside of 72hrs. And we Probably take gfs with grain of salt until maybe inside 24hrs.

[Ginx snewx]

Pattern 11 to 15 week exactly matches 3/13

[STILL N OF PIKE]

If we see a crawling firehose,i will travel to 1k' plus and north/ west (if needed)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should start seeing somekind of trends over the weekend imo. blocking episodes usually feature ‘less’ uncertainty but if it is Miller B type stuff, that still has decent spread even outside of 72hrs. And we Probably take gfs with grain of salt until maybe inside 24hrs.

I will be stunned if we don't come out of this with an event having deposited at least a solid 1' in general.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

We are already seeing model trends the last 24 hours...moving towards a south of New England and ultimately south of NYC . Signals are there unfortunately 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The bigger and more prolonged the block, the easier models latch on to a 200hr storm. Ohh Sandy

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are already seeing model trends the last 24 hours...moving towards a south of New England and ultimately south of NYC . Signals are there unfortunately 

You have been stationed in left field the vast majority of this winter.

None of that is true...zero.

Its possible it could miss, but there are no definitive trends at present...its one week plus out.