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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I have always been understanding your points on the NAO FWIW. 

One aspect about this particular episode which I think is somewhat important (Scott and I were briefly chatting about this earlier tonight) is that we are getting the strong block with a west coast trough...so we're ejecting a lot of potential out of the southwest US every few days into the teeth of a big block. That is asking for bowling ball blue bombs in March...if this was April or even May, we'd be bemoaning our bad fortune of a train of cutoffs sliding underneath a Labrador/Davis strait anti-cyclone of death dooming us to our fate of a week's worth of 44F gale force drizzle while its 75F and sunny in Rochester, NY on the backside of the trough with sinking air. 

Of course, maybe this doesn't pan out at all in the next 15-18 days and we are left with the infamous Tip cosmic screwjob of watching Philly get blitzed while we are high and dry and then Maine get hit while we enjoy a rainstorm. Always possible. But this particular NAO does seem to warrant closer attention given the state of the pacific. Ironically (as mentioned above) one of the few times we actually may want a -PNA and west coast trough. 

Yea, the wet coast trough screams bowling ball to me.....that is why I was favoring NE in my blog post last night....the H5 low won't get far enough south for all, and if you are south of it, then you're SOL.

This has March 2001 Miller B written all over it.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good point...but No haven’t forgotten...but I figured we couldn’t get two 30 plus inchers in 5 years time...??  But who knows...

It’s deff anomolous but one cant say “sne doesnt do big snows” lol. Quite the opposite, SNE...albiet more east zones lately....does it very well. Jan 11, Oct 11, Feb 13, Jan 15 just to name a few that stick out.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s deff anomolous but one cant say “sne doesnt do big snows” lol. Quite the opposite, SNE...albiet more east zones lately....does it very well. Jan 11, Oct 11, Feb 13, Jan 15 just to name a few that stick out.

Oh I never said anywhere that SNE doesn’t do big snow. I agree we do big snow well. 

 

But, What I did say was 30” plus...those are truly very rare.  That was more my point. Here’s to hoping something big materializes. 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, kbc360 said:

The Five mile

lol

4 hours ago, Hoth said:

A first hand account of '88, that is awesome! Upstate NY got crushed in that even worse than CT. A bunch of 55" reports if I remember right. It was an unusual snowfall distribution given the track, but I think there was some kind of stalled out north/south frontal boundary that focused snow up north. RI up to Boston had a lot of liquid in that storm, but CT, and particularly New Haven up to like Middletown got annihilated. I was referring to the CT River.

 

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The only one that matters in regards to snowfall in SNE

 

4 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Connecticut, but there were some nice totals east but the jackpot was New York state. WE would need the low about 50+ miles east.

I figured so, but for some reason I thought there was an implication that there was rain back to the CT river, and I did not think that was the case with 88.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted

The teleconnections look Beautiful.

Deeply negative AO AND NAO. Rising PNA. Falling EPO. MJO going through phases 1 and 2.

I want to see some results on the models! Also, hearing about the NAO linking up with the eastern ridge creating a disaster for snow. What does this mean and wouldn't the negative AO squash such an event?

 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The teleconnections look Beautiful.

Deeply negative AO AND NAO. Rising PNA. Falling EPO. MJO going through phases 1 and 2.

I want to see some results on the models! Also, hearing about the NAO linking up with the eastern ridge creating a disaster for snow. What does this mean and wouldn't the negative AO squash such an event?

 

I dont see a +pna until later in month when the nao vanishes. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

For late next week 

The slowed pattern allowing cyclones to mature and later
occlude in our neighborhood, forecast model consensus trending with
a deep, strong storm in our vicinity for the beginning of March. Way
out in time, can hardly touch on details and specifics, continued
ensemble member spread. However can`t ignore such robust signal when
tides are reaching their peak (Boston around 11.5 feet). Until then
will keep it dry and near-seasonable right on up through Thursday.
Then all eyes are upon a potential storm system.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, White Rain said:

What a weenie model that is. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some ice at my hood.

It went wild yesterday, but at least that was obvious. I feel like it's depiction of ice above 800-1K seems reasonable. I feel like this is elevated icing over nrn ORH and Monads.

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