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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting the NAO to happen can equally an amazing feat  - ... not to be snarky but, seems this has been 200+ hours for four days now and it's still 200+ hours. 

Not sure what point we should start to wonder if the propensity to falsely advertise these thing may not be laughing it's ass off  -  

Yeah, I think it's more confidence this time  ... all told. But it just reeks of instability and fragility in the runs...

I don't know where you are getting this....the NAO is modeled by the EURO to be significantly negative before the end of Februrary, which is less than a week away.

This isn't precarious at all.

Maybe it won't be -4 SD, but I feel comfortable in expecting a pretty stout episode of -NAO.

You are right about the track record over the course of the past several years, but in this particular case you are wrong.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know where you are getting this....the NAO is modeled by the EURO to be significantly negative before the end of Februrary, which is less than a week away.

This isn't precarious at all.

Maybe it won't be -4 SD, but I feel comfortable in expecting a pretty stout episode of -NAO.

You are right about the track record over the course of the past several years, but in this particular case you are wrong.

Lol I don't know where his head is.

ecmwf_eps_nao_2018022212.png

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ScituateWX

ScituateWX

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies look pretty good. Weaken the block during week 3, but a decent look. Residual higher heights up in Canada week 4 with a big ULL over Osu’s fanny.

From a weenie point of view looking through the northeast snowstorms book seems like some big dogs have come when the NAO transitions as some have mentioned.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

Lol... I’ll take my 28-32 inches from that scenario...wow if only??

Here’s  what’s always funny with Tip..(Runnaway said this back a couple months ago), when the pattern upcoming is looking  bad, he finds things that are positive to make you feel a liL better.

 And when the upcoming pattern looks to be promising, he finds the things that are negative and the reasons why it may not materialize.  

Maybe that’s part of the MET Training??

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol... I’ll take my 28-32 inches from that scenario...wow if only??

Here’s  what’s always funny with Tip..(Runnaway said this back a couple months ago), when the pattern upcoming is looking  bad, he finds things that are positive to make you feel a liL better.

 And when the upcoming pattern looks to be promising, he finds the things that are negative and the reasons why it may not materialize.  

Maybe that’s part of the MET Training??

There is a difference between healthy skepticism,  what if scenarios and ignoring total model agreement on a teleconnection indice. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Geez I was just being sardonic with Will. 

no I'm pretty even keeled ...the same much of the time. it's just that some of the members vacillate their collective mood up and down around neutral, and those that dare oppose the aura of the moment usually end up on the schit side of the troll list

 I've never deviated in my position on the NAO and I've been expressing reasons why I like it and don't like it for weeks based on things that have happened for years. 

What I don't do is just go with the tide of the emotional movements that go on in here. What I offer is a balanced perspective  

 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Geez I was just being sardonic with Will. 

no I'm pretty even keeled ...the same much of the time. it's just that some of the members vacillate their collective mood up and down around neutral, and those that dare oppose the aura of the moment usually end up on the schit side of the troll list

 I've never deviated in my position on the NAO and I've been expressing reasons why I like it and don't like it for weeks based on things that have happened for years. 

What I don't do is just go with the tide of the emotional movements that go on in here. What I offer is a balanced perspective  

 

Somebody has to "Tip" the scale into a more balanced position on these threats, Or in a mariners point of view, More of an even keel.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Geez I was just being sardonic with Will. 

no I'm pretty even keeled ...the same much of the time. it's just that some of the members vacillate their collective mood up and down around neutral, and those that dare oppose the aura of the moment usually end up on the schit side of the troll list

 I've never deviated in my position on the NAO and I've been expressing reasons why I like it and don't like it for weeks based on things that have happened for years. 

What I don't do is just go with the tide of the emotional movements that go on in here. What offer is a balanced perspective  

 

Yeah I have always been understanding your points on the NAO FWIW. 

One aspect about this particular episode which I think is somewhat important (Scott and I were briefly chatting about this earlier tonight) is that we are getting the strong block with a west coast trough...so we're ejecting a lot of potential out of the southwest US every few days into the teeth of a big block. That is asking for bowling ball blue bombs in March...if this was April or even May, we'd be bemoaning our bad fortune of a train of cutoffs sliding underneath a Labrador/Davis strait anti-cyclone of death dooming us to our fate of a week's worth of 44F gale force drizzle while its 75F and sunny in Rochester, NY on the backside of the trough with sinking air. 

Of course, maybe this doesn't pan out at all in the next 15-18 days and we are left with the infamous Tip cosmic screwjob of watching Philly get blitzed while we are high and dry and then Maine get hit while we enjoy a rainstorm. Always possible. But this particular NAO does seem to warrant closer attention given the state of the pacific. Ironically (as mentioned above) one of the few times we actually may want a -PNA and west coast trough. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Geez I was just being sardonic with Will. 

no I'm pretty even keeled ...the same much of the time. it's just that some of the members vacillate their collective mood up and down around neutral, and those that dare oppose the aura of the moment usually end up on the schit side of the troll list

 I've never deviated in my position on the NAO and I've been expressing reasons why I like it and don't like it for weeks based on things that have happened for years. 

What I don't do is just go with the tide of the emotional movements that go on in here. What I offer is a balanced perspective  

 

Well, if you were just being sarcastic, then I apologize... missed it.

I call it how I see it.....believe me, if I thought it was a fraud, then I'd state as much.

I called out that faux February pattern.

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