February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dendrite said:

It's not locked in until Ginxy says so.

Or until DIT says it will trend south because of the block.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's not locked in until Ginxy says so.

There is a lot of warm air around the EMA coast, I would be very worried south of you

[dryslot]

Congrats BWI.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is a lot of warm air around the EMA coast, I would be very worried south of you

I fully expect a 70kt LLJ poking its nose into S NH while I'm inversioned with 10mph sleet and metfan is 1/4SM +SN for hours.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congrats BWI.

 

Just now, dendrite said:

I fully expect a 70kt LLJ poking its nose into S NH while I'm inversioned with 10mph sleet and metfan is 1/4SM +SN for hours.

I joke , day 9 fantasy snows are the best though

[40/70 Benchmark]

It just serves to underscore the point that there is major potential and any and all options are on the table.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

I joke , day 9 fantasy snows are the best though

Probably will get bunned for this comment, But with that block in place, There is only so much room for this to come north.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It just serves to underscore the point that there is major potential and any and all options are on the table.

Nah, this ones for SE MA. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Does this run have any icing in SNE this weekend?

[butterfish55]

Nah, this ones for SE MA. 

Finally!

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nah, this ones for SE MA. 

Of course.

[CoastalWx]

EPS says  "wut" to Kevin.

[Typhoon Tip]

you know the GGEM wasn't terribly far from that ... It's gotta deep anomaly parked in a similar spot.. just happens to be off enough with timing to spare the coherent surface bomb... 

both solution are pinned in position underneath their respective impressions on the west based NAO at the time....  

[Typhoon Tip]

PSU's source has half those 12 members with a deepish anomaly passing just under our latitude in that same time frame...  

[Ginx snewx]

EPS on board

[NorthShoreBomb]

you guys need to check out the euro control run...

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS on board

No surprise.

We watch.

We track. 

We wait. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it's coming....just my opinion.

Whiff is plausible...one of them will get us.

[Ginx snewx]

Damn thats a sweet March EPS run

[Damage In Tolland]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS says  "wut" to Kevin.

Could these be rainers?

[Typhoon Tip]

what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

I mean.. purely scientific speculation, I assume it to be forcing stuff for research - but, that sounds like the Kevin model to me. 

"Hey, Bill - psst. Come here and check this out when I flip this Miocene Epoch heat wave variable to on..." 

I mean, of course the we control the models to do what we want them to do, right?  Not sure what they would really be used for outside of a laboratory. 

[ma blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

I mean.. purely scientific speculation, I assume it to be forcing stuff for research - but, that sounds like the Kevin model to me. 

"Hey, Bill - psst. Come here and check this out when I flip this Miocene Epoch heat wave variable to on..." 

I mean, of course the we control the models to do what we want them to do, right?  Not sure what they would really be used for outside of a laboratory. 

pretty sure its just an uber weenie euro ensemble member 

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's just an ens member.

[NorthShoreBomb]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

CONTROL -  The member of the ensemble obtained from the best initial analysis (the Control is usually what is perturbed to produce the remaining members in the ensemble).

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

I mean.. purely scientific speculation, I assume it to be forcing stuff for research - but, that sounds like the Kevin model to me. 

"Hey, Bill - psst. Come here and check this out when I flip this Miocene Epoch heat wave variable to on..." 

I mean, of course the we control the models to do what we want them to do, right?  Not sure what they would really be used for outside of a laboratory. 

A dumbed down version of the op by which the ensembles are based off of. When the op doesn’t satisfy it becomes a weenie crutch.

 

[Bostonseminole]

214hrs.. an eternity.. but this is all we have so bring it on

[dryslot]

For some............

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So where is this control run, how much snizzles for SNE?

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So where is this control run, how much snizzles for SNE?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/m0_snow-depth-in/20180309-1200z.html

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/m0_snow-depth-in/20180309-1200z.html

Meh and Boston gets shafted. We toss.