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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I did listen to Def Leppard Photograph on the way in. Got me in the mood.

 

I honestly hope the EPS is wrong. I am rather shocked it's a breakdown like it shows. Go America. 

You called it earlier when you were skeptical of the upcoming pattern flip. 

Perhaps we can re-shuffle one more time for early to mid March.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You called it earlier when you were skeptical of the upcoming pattern flip. 

Perhaps we can re-shuffle one more time for early to mid March.

To clarify, I wasn't saying 2012 is marching through the door. But over the last several days, it seems like there has been a lot of posts about deep winter..tons of snow etc. All I am saying is that we may need to pump the brakes on that. The GEFS has been moving to the EPS, but still big differences. The MJO certainly is not in the EPS camp, but it's not always the pattern driver. Recall in 2012 when we went into Phase 8 for Feb and furnaced. Many people thought the cold would come back, only to see the Bering Sea low go ape sh*t.  Next week looks awful, we'll see how it goes after.  I suppose Wednesday could move east, but it has work to do.

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

February rains are on the way

Heavy winter has no say

Way in and up has has a glimmer

While blizzy's bald head will simmer 

The winter was nice for a few weeks

Now something really reeks

The ministry of snow will ignore

The shiat pattern at the door.

Fleeting highs

And weenie cries

Its a gradient pattern of sorts 

Better iron your shorts

Its up and way in as you know

I.E be near Stowe

 

 

 

 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To clarify, I wasn't saying 2012 is marching through the door. But over the last several days, it seems like there has been a lot of posts about deep winter..tons of snow etc. All I am saying is that we may need to pump the brakes on that. The GEFS has been moving to the EPS, but still big differences. The MJO certainly is not in the EPS camp, but it's not always the pattern driver. Recall in 2012 when we went into Phase 8 for Feb and furnaced. Many people thought the cold would come back, only to see the Bering Sea low go ape sh*t.  Next week looks awful, we'll see how it goes after.  I suppose Wednesday could move east, but it has work to do.

Thanks

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

February rains are on the way

Heavy winter has no say

Way in and up has has a glimmer

While blizzy's bald head will simmer 

The winter was nice for a few weeks

Now something really reeks

The ministry of snow will ignore

The shiat pattern at the door.

Its a gradient pattern of sorts 

Better iron your shorts

Its up and way in as you know

I.E be near Stowe

 

 

 

:huh:

Nomad, squat teacher, weather enthusiast, poet. 

They were right...you are an anomaly. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

All I know is the pattern was less than stellar for the past couple weeks and SE New England just ripped out a good snow event regardless. 

Our climo can make it snow regardless, just need a little luck with a shortwave or two.

You guys will be fine. I'm sure the upslope moose farts will produce coming up.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What a melt.

Anyone that wants a realistic view of the next couple week, please read Donny post.

And this is for NYC area 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50883-february-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4803574

It's a forum. We discuss weather that isn't always going to be cold and snow.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of course.. but some of you guys have just gone off deep end . Good Lord

It's every right to be honest with people. This forum is so biased. We all love snow, but sometimes you need to call how we see it sometimes. Next two storms don't look good...esp Monday. I love snow as much as the nest person, but I'm not going to make myself falsely believe in something that is unrealistic.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Back to reality. Donny baseball with a great great post 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50883-february-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4803574

Here's the thing ... while not a forecast, I would caution that Nina springs have shown a tendency to arrive early -- I've read this in the past, so if that is knee jerk susceptible to disputable... it's not me :)   

So far, ...and as he's described, the tenor of the winter would make that harder to visualize happening.. agreed.

That, plus ... how 'early' is early?  I mean, anything substantively above normal that's enough to really atone for an early spring, that occurs prior to March 1, that more likely is a thaw? Because, there's so much time that any kind of a pattern roll-out could and probably would result in a recession and blue snows in late March. So there's obviously a gray area. Last years' balmy February could be construed as an early-ish spring, but thereafter ...March and April didn't really show much acceleration/early green-up either. 

I think objectively, spring "in the atmosphere" is any time the corner is turned. It starts getting more and more difficult to get a colder solutions relative to all. Much in the same way autumn for me can kick in some years as early as August 20th, when we've started dimming warm ups and are getting crispy 46 F damns and cobalt blue sky afternoons devoid of crispy taller CUs while yellow tinges the swamp maply days...   It's an interesting sort of philosophical discussion for me; one that arises because of the propensity of the human mind to want orderly boundaries applied to nature... Ha, the calendar?  Regardless of Julian or scientifically derived, those calendars are illusion in reality.  If it were not for the geometry of the sun angle as it moves around the face of the planet, the designations are completely arbitrary. So, over Millennia, human convention recognizes the sun's variance and applied seasonal boundaries to coincide (to close approximation) accordingly...  Effectively hiding a given year's seasonal changes beneath dogma.    

So the seasonal variance takes place when the seasonal variation kicks in... that's the atmospheric calendar, and the truth is, ...it changes every year depending on x-y-z dominating factors driving the environmental modes.  

blah blah blah... if the early spring idea of the Nina were to kick in, it's gotta start showing up at some point probably over this month to be consistent with the word 'early' ... 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is becoming unreadable lol

Was nice to wake up to white this a.m

hoping we see snows rev, we wait on modeling a few more days and see what shakes out

It happens when there is a tsunamis of model runs at 00z that don't actually show the 12+" snow fall on them at this time of year.  Only this time... the shut-down of joy is augmented further by the uh-oh factor of the EPS closing the book on winter.  It's like first the 00z runs paper cut, the EPS deliberately then lemon juiced the wound. 

Kidding of course... but, a solid couple of storms that look white instead of head and heartache would be an elixir for the moods in here. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's the thing ... while not a forecast, I would caution that Nina springs have shown a tendency to arrive early -- I've read this in the past, so if that is knee jerk susceptible to disputable... it's not me :)   

So far, ...and as he's described, the tenor of the winter would make that harder to visualize happening.. agreed.

That, plus ... how 'early' is early?  I mean, anything substantively above normal that's enough to really atone for an early spring, that occurs prior to March 1, that more likely is a thaw? Because, there's so much time that any kind of a pattern roll-out could and probably would result in a recession and blue snows in late March. So there's obviously a gray area. Last years' balmy February could be construed as an early-ish spring, but thereafter ...March and April didn't really show much acceleration/early green-up either. 

I think objectively, spring "in the atmosphere" is any time the corner is turned. It starts getting more and more difficult to get a colder solutions relative to all. Much in the same way autumn for me can kick in some years as early as August 20th, when we've started dimming warm ups and are getting crispy 46 F damns and cobalt blue sky afternoons devoid of crispy taller CUs while yellow tinges the swamp maply days...   It's an interesting sort of philosophical discussion for me; one that arises because of the propensity of the human mind to want orderly boundaries applied to nature... Ha, the calendar?  Regardless of Julian or scientifically derived, those calendars are illusion in reality.  If it were not for the geometry of the sun angle as it moves around the face of the planet, the designations are completely arbitrary. So, over Millennia, human convention recognizes the sun's variance and applied seasonal boundaries to coincide (to close approximation) accordingly...  Effectively hiding a given year's seasonal changes beneath dogma.    

So the seasonal variance takes place when the seasonal variation kicks in... that's the atmospheric calendar, and the truth is, ...it changes every year depending on x-y-z dominating factors driving the environmental modes.  

blah blah blah... if the early spring idea of the Nina were to kick in, it's gotta start showing up at some point probably over this month to be consistent with the word 'early' ... 

 

I agree. This looks to break down late Feb and Morch looks very warm. We’ve got 3-4 weeks left imo 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's every right to be honest with people. This forum is so biased. We all love snow, but sometimes you need to call how we see it sometimes. Next two storms don't look good...esp Monday. I love snow as much as the nest person, but I'm not going to make myself falsely believe in something that is unrealistic.

Most of us have been very reasonable admitting there’s equal chances of rains to Maine or snow. Only Ginx and Dryslot have been on the all snow train. Monday and Wednesday storms can still go either way as Will pointed out. 

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