February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[jbenedet]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Wouldn't be shocked at all if GFS is too warm. This is still 5 days out. So everyone needs to remember that. If we get that block pressing down, it's going to help with drawing in some drier polar air into the system which will cool things. 

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Is polar really what we’re looking for? I mean most of us would just be happy with  Canadian air. The early cut-off is problematic bc the background atmosphere is Pacific. So when it cuts off over the Plains we lose the draw, if you will, from Canada early on which isn’t cold to begin with, and then the background Pacific warms whatever is left of it in the circulation by the time it reaches us. 

One of two things needs happen—a later cut-off or a dynamic bomb that develops a sufficient surface pressure gradient to draw  whatever minimal cold exists, south into our back yards. I think the latter is the better shot, so I’d like to see more <980 mb solutions start showing up on guidance moving forward. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:30 PM, CT Rain said:

I mean are people surprised by this? A warm bomb was always a possibility with this setup. 

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I'm Not surprised the GFS is showing that at day 5, no.

[weathafella]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not everyone thought early Feb would be wintery.

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I don’t think you thought the the end result for the whole month was way above normal.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:23 PM, jbenedet said:

Is polar really what we’re looking for? I mean most of us would just be happy with  Canadian air. The early cut-off is problematic bc the background atmosphere is Pacific. So when it cuts off over the Plains we lose the draw, if you will, from Canada early on which isn’t cold to begin with, and then the background Pacific warms whatever is left of it in the circulation by the time it reaches us. 

One of two things needs happen—a later cut-off or a dynamic bomb that develops a sufficient surface pressure gradient to draw  whatever minimal cold exists, south into our back yards. I think the latter is the better shot, so I’d like to see more <980 mb solutions start showing up on guidance moving forward. 

 

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Not speaking for Will and ...probably petty distinctions here, but I suspect by polar he just means intermediate air ... which Canadian probably suffices.

But, anyway... what I am seeing across the last three days worth of cycles is that we have rotted air in the lower troposphere over the whole region as these mid-llv mechanics operate over head. The models don't have to be wrong about that, per se... but, seeing as the entire surface PP shows the ballast + is N of the area, that "to me" is a red flag. Thicknesses are around 534 from upstate NY to middle Main or even S of that axis a little bit... and north of that axis, there is higher surface pressure anchored by the arrive influences of a blocky -NAO and so forth.  That air is getting entangled in a deepening circulation .. I dunno. I don't buy these warm solutions combining that factor with dynamics at this time of year. 

[SnowHole413]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:29 PM, weathafella said:

I don’t think you’re you thought the the end result for the whole month was way above normal.

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To be fair no would’ve expected the SE ridge to be on steroids and people hitting 80 degrees in February 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:29 PM, weathafella said:

I don’t think you thought the the end result for the whole month was way above normal.

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I thought mid winter would be very mild.....and felt that nothing would begin to change until the second half of the month.

You are wrong....2005-2006 was my top analog. 

January was colder than I thought. 

[weathafella]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:32 PM, Powderboy413 said:

To be fair no would’ve expected the SE ridge to be on steroids and people hitting 80 degrees in February 

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February through 2/24:

BOS.  +5.7

ORH.  +5.9

PVD.   +7.1

BDL.    +4.9

 

torch!

[jbenedet]

I think this is the warmest runs we’ll see. The teleconnections —and guidance in general—points to a nuke. Going forward we should see the surface temps respond favorably to much deeper solutions.

I’m optimistic. 

Dont forget the best snowstorms are typically the ones where you’re riding the (ptype) line.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:32 PM, Powderboy413 said:

To be fair no would’ve expected the SE ridge to be on steroids and people hitting 80 degrees in February 

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I explicitly said that prime KU season maybe downright balmy...will repost if need be.

[weathafella]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought mid winter would be very mild.....and felt that nothing would begin to change until the second half of the month.

You are wrong....2005-2006 was my top analog.

January was colder than I thought. 

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Mid month?  Nope.  Own it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:34 PM, jbenedet said:

I think this is the warmest runs we’ll see. The teleconnections —and guidance in general—points to a nuke. Going forward we should see the surface temps respond favorably to much deeper solutions.

I’m optimistic. 

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Agree. We'll see what happens, though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm Not surprised the GFS is showing that at day 5, no.

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CMC is showing it too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:35 PM, weathafella said:

Mid month?  Nope.  Own it.

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Bull $hit.

Glasses?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:36 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

CMC is showing it too.

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Hmmm...how about the DGEX?

[weathafella]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bull $hit.

Glasses?

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Ray, I’m pretty sure from reading your incitedful posts all winter that you didn’t think we’d be above most days into March.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hmmm...how about the DGEX?

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Did you just step the DGEX up to the level of the CMC? Wow, what a  

[NorEastermass128]

Upon closer inspection of the 12z GFS, even this "warm" depiction shows 850s at or below 0C for most north of the Pike...and then collapses south.  

[dryslot]

Waiting on the 12z JMA and Navgem.

[JC-CT]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:39 PM, dryslot said:

Waiting on the 12z JMA and Navgem.

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Nam at 84 would have been a big hit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:38 PM, weathafella said:

Ray, I’m pretty sure from reading your incitedful posts all winter that you didn’t think we’d be above most days into March.

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I said Feb would have some balmy days, and the next storm window would open up in early March.....I'm not sure what more you want. Daily departures from November??

When I miss, I'm pretty honest about it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:39 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Did you just step the DGEX up to the level of the CMC? Wow, what a  

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The point is the CMC is even worse than the GFS.....I thought we would see things stabilize a bit sooner, so was wrong there.

[dendrite]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:35 PM, weathafella said:

Mid month?  Nope.  Own it.

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  On 2/25/2018 at 5:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bull $hit.

Glasses?

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Ray looks more intimidating since coming back from his vacay, but I think Jerry kicks out of it and drops a big boot to win it.

[CoastalWx]

We need the graupler.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The point is the CMC is even worse than the GFS.....I thought we would see things stabilize a bit sooner, so was wrong there.

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It's just another piece of guidance and it may be correct.  That aside, we need to see some solid changes, positively, at this point for the blue bomb.  I've been leaning garbage.

[CoastalWx]

Alright well if I were to go James and awaken to the sweet scenario for a lot of us, it would be something bombing ESE of Chatham. You'd limit the reach around warm tongue from Bermuda, and the intense dynamics would be a recipe for a blue bomb to Diane's fanny. Height fall city. Sort of like an Icon/CMC combo. In theory and for selfish reasons..I would like that. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:48 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's just another piece of guidance and it may be correct.  That aside, we need to see some solid changes, positively, at this point for the blue bomb.  I've been leaning garbage.

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Fair enough. 

 

[dryslot]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

We need the graupler.

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I think he was placed into a sleeper hold.

[CoastalWx]

Despite the pretty TT colors many are looking at, the CMC was really tasty synoptically. That is something we can work with, even if it starts out wet.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/25/2018 at 5:39 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Upon closer inspection of the 12z GFS, even this "warm" depiction shows 850s at or below 0C for most north of the Pike...and then collapses south.  

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It's irritating .. but, it seems folks are sort of "monkey see monkey do" with this stuff and unless the synoptic charts have actual snow painted on them, it's an apocalyptic atrocity to the sanctity of winter.

Ha.. kidding, but it does seem at times as though those guidance depictions have a strange proxy over the "mood" variations.

I mean.. GFS warm boundary layer in the mid range?  Never!   Marginal storms in guidance tending to go colder in the verified... No chance!  ... Any kind of storm at all that should not cause panic to the emotively codependent/drama junkies ??  Definitely!  

[CoastalWx]

Jerry's NAVGEM leaves us with a nice day.